Good afternoon, everyone. As expected, it’s a cold and dreary day across Kentucky as a few flurries and snow showers work through. After a little sun on Sunday, we focus on just how much of an impact we can have from a Monday system. That’s ahead of a much bigger change toward winter weather starting later next week. Buckle up, winter weather lovers.
Another Texas snowstorm is developing this weekend as low pressure works through there. This gets into the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday then begins to eject to the northeast on Monday. This will weaken considerably as it does so, but it’s likely to maintain itself enough to produce a little light snow in here later Monday. Just how much is the question.
The NAM has a nice light snowfall…
That’s the most enthusiastic model in showing light snow, but I do think it has some merit.
Other models, like the GFS and EURO, show this weakening quite a bit…
EURO
GFS
I suspect the difference is in between the two models from above. Still, this looks very light.
The second half of next week is when this winter pattern starts to really settle in with much colder air working in behind a cold front. That may produce some light snow, but sets the stage for a stronger system right behind it…
Two things about that setup. We may very well get into the first true northwest flow event in a few years by next weekend. The system coming behind that has a good look to ramp up into an Ohio Valley winter storm. The cold coming in and a bit of resistance with a ridge off the southeastern seaboard is usually a winner.
The EURO also has a storm around the same time as the GFS, but differs in track…
This is a pattern that may very well become harsh around here and for much of the country as we get into the second half of January. The average of the 21 member GFS Ensembles show how these cold shots get colder and colder with each passing one…
The setup at the end of that has a direct discharge of bitter cold from Alaska into the country.
I’ll throw you another update this evening. Have a great Saturday and take care.
Only thing I see wrong with these potential storms is the cold air. I know we need the cold air, but there is such merit in the saying “too cold to snow”. Maybe that one storm coming out of the SW around the 18th-19th will be as good or half as good as the one pretty much in the same timeframe as 1994?! At least perhaps we snow hounds have SOME hope this Winter! 🙂
Looking at the computer models Debbie, it seems like Kentucky has a really good chance of a major snow event around the 19th and 20th of this month, which is a lot more than could be said for the Chicago area!
The too cold to snow scenario is more of a dependence on insufficient moisture, because cold air cannot “hold” as much moisture. But the week 3 setup, combining an extremely cold air mass with La Nina’s moisture-rich flow, gives us our best chance for a significant state-wide snowfall, in a LONG time. Even the Bowling Green Bubble would have trouble with this scenario!
Canada has really warmed up. Temperatures in the twenties and teens. The frigid Arctic air is in Siberia and moving all over Europe and Snow cover is increasing from Russia to Spain.
The GFS accumulated Snow Cover shows the entire state of Kentucky under seven inches of Snow by the nineteenth of January.
We need to pray this happens to end this ongoing Snow Drought here in Kentucky.
Adding to the above, the difference in temperatures in Canada and Siberia Wow ! https://www.ventusky.com/?p=58;157;1&l=temperature-2m
Reverse the temperatures in Siberia and Canada and add a strong positive PNA and a strong negative EPO plus a weak El Nino you may match the Winters of 1976 to 1978.