Good Wednesday, everybody. It’s another pretty nice weather day across the Commonwealth as sunny skies boost temps into the 40s. This is ahead of a big change toward winter starting Thursday night and early Friday. That’s when a cold front works through, bringing a much colder air mass and rounds of light snow into the coming weekend. It kicks off a very busy winter setup for the next few weeks.
Temps out there today hit the 40s and may flirt with 50 on Thursday. That’s when southwest winds start to crank ahead of our cold front. This front crosses the state very quickly Thursday night and Friday morning.
Here’s a breakdown of how things look:
- The front likely has a band of light rain and light snow along and just behind it.
- Skies will briefly clear behind that band, but that disappears as clouds and light snow sweep in from the west late in the day.
- With a powerful upper level low spinning over top of us, the atmosphere has quite a bit of energy and lift.
- This brings an increase in light snow Friday night and Saturday and this should be fairly widespread. Within this comes some streaks of heavier snows for a time.
- Another light snow maker then tries to show up late Sunday and Monday as another disturbance works in.
- Accumulations are a good bet across the entire region. This looks light, but I don’t think too many people would complain if we can get a 1″-3″ snowfall out of this. Right? 😜
- Overall, this looks like a pretty wintry weekend.
The various computer models are all singing the same tune and that’s always a good sign.
Let’s start with the future radar of the NAM that only goes through 7am Saturday. Check out the solid area of snow moving in…
The GFS shows this well and shows the second system Sunday and Monday…
Here’s the snow map from the GFS through Monday…
Here’s the Canadian…
The snowfall map for the same time period…
Here’s the EURO…
Snowfall map…
The average of the 21 member GFS Ensembles continue to spit out a good signal…
I will get back to your normal updates later today, so I’ll see you guys then. Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.
The higher elevations in the East and Southeast part of the state could get more than 3 inches of Snow. I don’t expect any accumulations of Snow in Western and Central Kentucky. This is the same old pattern where it snows more to the North and East. Typical La Nina phase of ENSO.
I read this morning that the EPO and the AO and the NAO are all predicted to go negative and a return to an active Subtropical Jet Stream. This may give all of us here in the Ohio Valley more chances of receiving substantial Snows instead of backside flurries. However, all depends on where the Polar Jet Stream phases with the Tropical Jet Stream ?
Looks like Meteorologist are predicting a switch over to El Nino phase of ENSO which would really boost our chances for a Snowy Back Loaded Winter. Lets hope this happens Snow Lovers !
Let’s hope we have a early dry warm spring.
Being in the “Plant Business” I have never seen an early Spring without a devastating freeze that destroys Nut Crops and Nursery Stock.
Lets just hope Spring is quiet and fruitful with normal rainfall.
The NAM is showing a decent chance of snow squalls for the Midwest/Ohio Valley on Saturday. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/MODEL/WXmodel.php?&model=nam212&run=2021011306&map=SNSQ&fhr=063
Maybe you will get a 4 incher in South-Central Indiana.
Saw a local met post earlier to watch Friday evening closely because of banding snow squalls that would possibly have enough instability to produce some lightning strikes within as well as iffy road conditions. If the sun came out, it would contribute to the instability just as if it were thunderstorms.
It’s amusing how time after time, the majority of forecast model snow bands seem to avoid South Central Kentucky like the plague. It’s something that becomes more evident as we get closer to the event, until they inevitably disappear.
The Famous Southeast Ridge Along with a strong Northwest Flow always destroys Snowstorms in our area of Kentucky. It’s been going on for five years. Time for it to end. Maybe next go around.