Good Tuesday everyone. For the past few weeks, the blog has been shining a spotlight on the period right after Thanksgiving as one to watch for a wintry period. The closer we get to this time frame, the wilder the models start to look.

Today through Thanksgiving will continue to feature mild days with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. There is a very small chance for a shower today and early Wednesday. Thanksgiving Day looks mild and breezy with dry weather.

The action starts on Black Friday as a strong cold front dives in from the northwest. Winds are going to gust up as showers move in by midday Friday. Our temps will hit the low 50s early and then fall into the 30s during the evening hours. A northwesterly wind flow will push some clouds and snow flurries into central and eastern Kentucky Friday night and Saturday. The GFS is now getting a good handle on this…

The GFS is also growing colder for Saturday’s highs and now shows the 30s we’ve been talking about…

I’ve been calling this a warning shot from Old Man Winter and the old guy looks to be waking up super early this year. The storm early next week is coming in as a much colder system on some of the models as they start to see the amount of blocking going on. The GFS shows one heck of an upper level look early next week…

That’s the look of some of the great winters of the past. The end result of that is a very wintry system rolling through here…

The GFS Ensembles Mean looks very similar…

The NOGAPS and European Models have both gone toward similar solutions to what the above models are showing. That’s still a week away and a lot can and will happen. I can tell you this setup is even more wintry than I originally thought and has my full attention.

Let’s remember it’s still November, so let’s just sit back and see how this thing works out. Regardless, you will have a lot of snow chances in the coming few weeks.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.