Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a windy and very mild day across Kentucky as we wait for a cold front to crash the party later tonight into early Thursday. This front will bring gusty winds, rain and big drop in temps. From there, the focus shifts toward a cold Thanksgiving week for our region.
Temps today are 70ish as winds crank from the southwest and flirt with 40mph at times through tonight. As the front sweeps in here, showers increase from west to east tonight through Thursday, but this action is moving pretty quickly. Here’s the future radar from the Hi Res NAM from 7 this evening through 1am Friday…
Temps crash behind this front and you can see that well on this animation from 7 this evening through 7 Friday morning…
Saturday is a fairly normal November day, but rain surges in here on Sunday ahead of a massive dip in the jet stream Monday and Tuesday. This will unleash the coldest air of the season and likely fires up a big storm along the east coast. The models continue to have their typical back and forth on how to handle it and the GFS is leading the charge on that. Here’s the latest run…
Notice how the prior run was much deeper and farther west with the whole setup…
That run is likely closer to the truth.
As soon as I say that, the EURO looks more like the newer run of the GFS…
Here’s the Canadian
As we look deeper into Thanksgiving week, we find the models struggling even more in finding any kind of consistency. The GFS is in its usual too flat and progressive mode from this time frame…
The EURO is likely playing into the bias of the model in holding too much energy back and creating a big storm that’s too far west…
The Canadian also has a big storm, but is a little more east…
The pattern favors a big storm late next week, but the models are likely to show some really wild swings from run to run.
I may throw you another update later today and will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Until then, I leave you with your radars for the day…
Make it a good one and take care.
