Good Monday evening everyone. All hail mother nature! Thunderstorms rumbled across Kentucky this afternoon and early evening. These storms even put down enough hail to whiten the ground in many places. Does that count as a White Christmas? 🙂
I wanted to drop by for a quickie update on what we’re tracking for later. The next storm moves in Wednesday night and Tuesday and this will cause a dramatic weather swing. We start Thursday with temps in the 50s with showers and thunderstorms. We end it with temps going below freezing and snow showers and squalls breaking out. Those snow showers and squalls will continue Thursday night and Friday. That is shown nicely by the GFS Ensembles…
I’m toying with the possibility of some areas getting in on a light accumulation. Winds will be a huge player and gusts should top 40mph.
While I’m focusing on this system in the short term, I’m focusing on this bad boy for Christmas and the day after…
More on all that later tonight. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.
Chris–Two Reasonable question. The 10th warmest December on record in Lexington was 1875 with 42.6 degrees. Through the 16th, the average temp was was 47.7. That means 12/17-12/31 must average 37.1 or lower to not crack the Top 10 list.
Question #1: Do you think we will finish with a December out of the Top 10?
Question #2: Do you still stand behind your below normal winter given the first sixteen days have seen almost record warmth?
Before anyone jumps on me this is not an attack–just some curious questions!!!
Good questions.
I just wonder if this active pattern stays active in January-February. I would also like to see how everything lines up with similar years past. I know each year is different but given everything I just wonder how it stacks up. It seems to me that there has been plenty of moisture to work with at least.
The only hope I can find is 1984-1985. 1984 was extremely warm in December and brutally cold/snowy in Jan/Feb. Perhaps Chris and/or MJ could give more details as to other analog years.
Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to the later post to see what your thoughts are on the weekend and beyond. Still have the possibility of renegade storms this evening.
I think CB is a big tease 😉
He knows the models look like they have potential, but has seen too many bust. Well played.
Agreed
Don’t agree sorry
The part that the outlooks have been a bust or CB is being a big tease? It is objectivity impossible for it to be both 😉
I love the xmas model,but I have little faith with that scenario.
This is getting funny now, here we go again for the hundredth time atleast, the storm that is getting my attention now is next week, wow really, come on that sounds promising, I know some of you folks will come rushing in to say I’m to harsh or calling Chris out, no, facts are this is the same ole same ole stuff we have heard for years! As some has said already on here I will believe It when I see it??
Todd, are your locals in Frankfort from Lexington or Louisville? Here is the 10 day forecast highs for Louisville…Tuesday (52), Wednesday (61), Thursday (59), Friday (39 and sunny), Saturday (50), Christmas Eve (46), Christmas (52) and Wednesday (52 and rain). So, yeah, I’ll believe the models when I see it.
And why are you reading this blog again
Truth that.
Here we go with the dilusional models. These models are like car sales they tell you everything you want to hear (or see in this case) and once you get there its a totally different story. The storm for next week will more than likely be a lake cutter. It doesnt at all have my attention until that same map that CB just posted shows up 24hrs befire storm hits. Give it a day maybe 2 and that low will be center in Iowa.
We have officially hit the “Week-away-storm” period that will probably last until mid March… Always “a week away…”
Yup.
Question still is: Why do the models always bust for good snow chances, but NEVER do the opposite? There is never a “Where the heck did THAT come from?!”, but there are plenty of “Where did it go?” results.
Makes no apparent sense. Only Lucy’s football does.
Yup
I’m just curious how WKYT and Chris have Friday forecast high of 25 with snow showers and 70 miles west in Louisville, all 4 stations plus the weather channel have a forecast high of 40 with sunny skies? Saturday is forecast to be near 50 in Louisville and only 35 in Lexington? Not being a pain here, just curious how 5 forecast in one city can be so different from one in another city just down the road.
I live in Frankfort and get Lou&lex weather stations and have noticed Louisville is about 5 degrees to warm and Chris is about 5 degrees to cold on 5 day outlooks, so I split the difference and that is most of the time close to what you get!
High Friday 35 in Frankfort, give or take a couple?
With the urban heat island in Louisville, I’ll take the 40 degrees under sunny skies.
Why have our December temperatures been so far above average? I thought the large amount of blocking over Greenland, heavy snow pack in the north, and weak El Niño all pointed to average/colder than average temperatures for winter.
I’m a weather novice though, so forgive me if I’ve got it all wrong. I don’t even care if it snows for Christmas at this point. I just want it to be COLD.
Thanks for the frequent updates, Chris.
Thanks Chris for the update. Looking forward to hearing the latest on the Christmas storm with the overnight update!
If everyone would just look at the model’s(especially Euro Ensembles) and quit bickering you can clearly see the potential for something big on the 26-27th…Look at the low in north central tenn…Look at the blocking setting up in N.E Canada..There’s no way this low is gonna cut into the lakes…It’s moving east and somebody should get a major snow storm…Hopefully it’s ky so some some people will shut the hell up and quit complaining…Remember folk’s there’s potential..Better than nothing …
Your still smoking the one week out model crack, sorry!
Im looking for a trend…big difference…So let’s have your forecast for this time period…Go ahead and split the difference from your local weather station’s..lol…
I will take that challenge, you can book mark this for records, 26 th rain, 27 th rain ending as flurries, 28 th temps warming!
So why do you think flurries on the 27th???..Cold air just magically appear…
just for fun
How many cow toots offsets one degree in temps??….. Hey, shut down them there dairy farms- NOW!!!
🙂
Ridiculous of how people are complaining about the lack of snow..well guess what..it’s DECEMBER!!!..we typically don’t get big snows in December!!! I am 50 years old and have lived in eastern Kentucky all of my life. I have been interested in weather since I was around 12 and can vividly remember looking forward so much to January and February because I knew those were our months for snow and cold!…Good grief people..we live in Kentucky..not the North Pole!
You are correct sir!
Agree! Just wish some of those maps were 24 hours out. Almost think we’re better off way out of the “sweet zone” this far out. 🙂
Amen, brother.
POWER OF POSITIVITY! It’s going to happen.
Gotta love how some folks can’t deal with the reality of global warming, the days everyone keeps remembering are over, we are in a new world of weather now!
Yep, blame it on cow toots.
The Manbearpig approves! Let us forget that even in the 1800 and early 1900’s there were warm spells and our lives are but a data blip to the overall trends. Super cereal!
Yep,global warming folks…we will never see winter or snow again..LOL….That’s what my local weather station just said…
Channeling my best drama “queen” here:
Can’t we aalllll juust get aaaalllooong!?
I respect your thoughts bubba, you have been here for the long hall, I’m not picking fights with folks on here just stating facts of the trends you have spoken about! We need a trend buster to change my mind, that just the way it is!
I know, I am just having fun 🙂 We have to have some fun around here!
Yes, we do need a trend buster, since an actual result is the ONLY thing that breaks a trend. Real results trump lofty model outlooks EVERY time 😉
That is the truth of this sad snowless situation, I know how all the Chris bloggers here want snow, I’m just trying to keep it real.
Kinda fiesty tonight…Something in the water perhaps?
Until we get the near mythic trend buster in central Kentucky, I think this is the jaded climate the forum dwells in.
Better chance this winter than last, so at least that is progress 🙂
God is great beer is good and models are crazy…..
Yep
I’ll drink to that, happy holidays, love the blog, and everyone on it 🙂
I second that!!!!!
Happy Holiday’s to all……
we were on our way to Louisville for a hockey game and we drove through the storm… behind us was the largest rainbow I have ever seen in my life. It was AMAZING!
We have a couple winters without snow and everyone goes into a global warming frenzy. It is not CB’s or the models fault that the weather is not going the way everyone wishes it would go on a daily basis. Mother Nature unleashes her fury when she feels the time. I am with Emerson B….Think Positive and it will happen. So since 80% of the post are negative then us positive thinkers don’t stand a chance on getting even a flurry unless we hit DQ..Hell we can even get a BLIZZARD.
I am still holding out on a cold and snowy Jan./Feb.
If we are in a global warming phase, then I guess we should be prepared for something extreme to happen. People blamed global warming for the Derecho we had this summer. The same applies for Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy. Global warming was said to be partially the cause for that. So, since we’ve had extreme storms in both Summer and Fall, I guess it’s Winter’s turn for the extreme. Such as a lot of ice, power outages, and such. I hope that won’t happen. However, given the trend of the past 6 months or so, there is that chance.