Good afternoon, folks. We are coming off an absolutely frigid morning and the sun of the afternoon isn’t doing much work on our thermometers. The late week light snow system continues to look just that… Light. It’s a small part in a monster storm impacting areas of the northeast.

Before we look ahead, look back at how cold things got this morning…

Those numbers absolutely trashed the computer forecast numbers. Arctic air is low-level and it’s dense so it tends to press farther south than the models think. That’s something to keep in mind with next week’s pattern.

In the short-term, the arctic air pressing more is also going to play a role in our Friday light snow maker. This lighter as we get closer because we are seeing how the arctic air is flexing some. That “flex” means slightly drier air and pushes the best snow chances farther south and east. Instead of this being a 1″-3″ snowfall, we are now looking at mainly a 1″ or less setup. Here are what the models look like…

Image

Image

Image

Bitterly cold air with single digit lows shows back up Friday night into Saturday morning. Wind chills go below zero during that time.

I have no changes to the setup for next week as a powerhouse of a temperature gradient sets up in our region. This will fire up a significant overrunning system that can take us from heavy rain to winter weather in just a few hours…

Image

Temps may drop 20-30 degrees in just a few hours in this kind of setup.

It’s a pretty active setup taking shape and it’s loaded with winter weather potential deep into the month. For the record… I’m on #TeamSpring .

Enjoy the evening and take care.