Good Monday to one and all. It’s the final day of February and that means it’s the last day of Meteorological Winter. With the first day of Meteorological Spring almost here, things look to be in pretty good shape as March comes in like a lamb. The lion part of it may be waiting to start this coming weekend.

As we wrap up winter, let’s take a look back at one wild ride:

  • One of the worst tornado outbreaks hit the state on December 10th and 11th. 80 people lost their lives.
  • Record warmth was common for December as the month turned into one of the warmest Decembers ever.
  • Record highs were common, including Christmas day.
  • Another severe storms and tornado outbreak hit New Year’s Eve and Day.
  • Historic snowstorm hit the state January 6th. Lexington had it’s 4th highest single day snowfall with nearly 10″.
  • January was the 7th snowiest January ever in Lexington and the 12th snowiest month on record.
  • February started with an ice storm and brought several winter weather makers, flood makers and severe weather makers.

I’ve been at this for a long time now, and this was the most active winter of my career.

So, the quiet weather of right now is certainly needed and it looks to continue through the end of the week. Temps will be very pleasant for early March, so let’s carve out some time to get out and enjoy it.

The only drawback comes from a weak front that may briefly split the state with colder weather getting into the north for a time…

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This calm pattern looks to flip back into a very active one starting this weekend and this may roll on for a while. I made this map Saturday, and it looks to be in good shape…

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A big battle will be brewing during this time as the seasonal change to spring will run into a lot of resistance coming in from the north and northwest. That’s where winter will be looking to regain control. This pattern puts our region in the battle zone with several systems rolling through here and that’s how we can get in on a lot of precipitation. Check out how far above normal the GFS sees precipitation totals from March 5-15…

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The GFS Ensembles for the same 10 day stretch…

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The control run of the EURO Ensembles are WET…

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Come on, March. You can do better than that.

Enjoy your final day of February and take care.