Good Thursday to one and all. We have a seasonable late August weather day taking shape across the region, but a couple of cold fronts look to change things up a bit in the coming days. Those changes include the threat for thunderstorms and a cooler look as we inch closer to Labor Day Weekend.
Let’s begin things with what’s going on out there today. Highs are deep into the 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. There’s just enough moisture for a shower or storm to go up across the far south and southeast.
Whatever’s out there will show up on your radars…
A lingering shower or storm hangs around into Saturday, but most stay dry through the weekend. Temps are seasonable in the mid and upper 80s.
The models continue to figure out the evolution of the pattern for next week, but we are likely to see showers and storms increase for Monday and Tuesday with a trough digging in behind that for the start of September. You can see that on the EURO…
The Canadian has a wetter look to it for the close of August into the start of the new month…
You will notice I really don’t use the GFS very much. That’s because it’s had one of the worst stretches of forecasting I’ve ever seen a model have.
If we look longer range, we find the EURO Ensembles showing much more of a trough digging into the east later in the first week of September…
The Control run of the EURO Ensembles is even more emphatic with that trough…
We are getting into the time of year when a lot depends on the tropics and the NHC continues to follow a few systems trying to flare up…
We have yet to have a named storm in August. If we finish the month that way, it would be the first time that’s happened since 1961.
Make it a great day and take care.
Shear above average
-Instability below average
-Vorticity below average
-Water temps below average
Why hurricanes cannot formed this year.
Thanks Chris, on the European Model it’s interesting to observe how the Troughs propagate over the Eastern one third of the country as the Ridge builds to our West. If this forecast holds, we would have a very pleasant start to September.
I remember the late Great Meteorologist Marcia Yockey talking about how inactive the Tropics were back in August 1961. Yeah, I am that old LOL. The following Autumn and Winter were much below normal in temperature and there was Snow cover most of the Winter 1962.
Has anyone notice that these troughs were getting are coming from the east. That’s kinda unusual they usually come from the north. That can be scary if it continues this fall and winter