Good Thursday to one and all. It’s a great start to the month of September with pleasant temps and low humidity. From here, it’s all eyes on Labor Day Weekend and the increasing potential for a few storms to crash the last holiday weekend of the warm weather months.
This is the first day of Meteorological Fall and we have a mix of sun and clouds with temps in the low 80s for much of central and eastern Kentucky and low and middle 80s west. Humidity is still low, so soak it up.
A little more moisture increase for Friday and that brings clouds and the chance for a shower or storm into the state. The models are spitting out a corridor of scattered action right on top of central and eastern Kentucky…
GFS
NAM
This is a sign of things to come with an increased threat for showers and storms starting Saturday and going through next week as a slow-moving system spins through. We are now seeing all the models agreeing on this daily threat. Check out the animations from this Saturday to the following Saturday…
GFS
CANADIAN
EURO
That’s quite the prolonged period of scattered showers and thunderstorms with near normal temps and fairly high humidity levels.
The tropics keep trying to spin up some systems, but it’s been a struggle…
Make it a great Wednesday and take care.
I really have no complaints.
I would like to see a little more sunshine over the holiday weekend.
Wait until after Labor Day weekend then bring on the ” prolong period ” of rain but really we could use it now as it is getting mighty dusty around here.
Now we can add 2022 to the list of unnamed Tropical Storms in August. Are the Tropics going to remain quiet for the rest of the season ? NOAA’s forecast still calls for a moderately active season. We will fined out for sure at the end of November.
NOAA’s outlook for the first month of Meteorological Fall : https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/
Schroeder, I’m not seeing anything that would indicate a ramp up in tropical activity. The latest vorticity and shear charts seem to indicate that storms should be able to strengthen, but they aren’t. The latest sea surface temperature anomaly map might hint at a reason, with that section of colder than normal water in the Mid-Atlantic. The chart also no change in the colder than normal waters off of South America, meaning La Nińa remains firmly entrenched, at least for the short term. The SSTA map also shows a broadening of the warmer than normal waters in the northern Pacific now stretching from the West Coast, clear over to the vicinity of Japan, which if it continues could help push the section of the northern jet stream over Alaska, towards the Pole, and lead to a dip over Canada. This could lead to some significant outbreaks of polar air this Winter over the Midwest and East Coast.
The big difference on this map, however, is is the much warmer waters over the north Atlantic, something I haven’t seen in a long time. This could influence the strengthening of troughs over the eastern US, increasing the chances for a more cold and stormy front-loaded Winter! The other difference I see is the absence of colder than normal water south of Greenland, which has been fed by glacial melt. This is odd, since the melting of the Greenland this Summer has been higher than ever.
Here’s a link to the SSTA map:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
Joe, if there is Tropical activity that affects the mainland it’s going to be late. Tropical Storm Danielle which formed just a few hours ago poses no threat to land except to islands in the North Atlantic ? Just because we are currently in a moderate La Nina doesn’t mean we will have an above average Hurricane Season. Other factors of Nature are at play.
Temperatures are definitely warming in the North Northwest Pacific which would shift the Polar Jet Stream Eastward into Canada. If La Nina continues to decrease and the PDO goes positive and ENSO forms we would have that long awaited weather pattern change for the upcoming Winter ?
It only take a couple of heavy showers to green everything up. Here we were getting some brown starting in the grass again and then we have heavy rains….I feel like everything greened up overnight. I hope we don’t have any tropical activity….
I saw on YouTube apocalyptic thunderstorms in Saudi Arabia…someone who lives there commented that it’s very strange as they have lived there 20 years and it’s always sunny hot and dry with no clouds…Meanwhile, someone in the Netherlands commented who horrible their drought was and they couldn’t believe it was raining/flooding in the desert and yet they couldn’t get any rain.
The waters around Greenland have warmed significantly but other areas of the Atlantic have undergone cooling, which may explain the uneventful Tropical Season ?
Yes, especially that cooler than normal patch that is directly in the path of Cape Verde-spawned storms.
Yeah, I believe that we’re verging on a significant Winter season. It’s been too long,and I’m almost to old to make snow angels!
Here is some information comparing temperature highs and lows from my PWS, located just south of Bowling Green:
2021 – actual number of days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90°F:
74 days
2022 – actual number of days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90°F (YTD):
58 Days
Yearly average number of days where the temperature reaches or exceeds 90°F (YTD):
43 Days
2021 – actual number of days where the temperature was at or lower than 32°F:
74 days
2022 – actual number of days where the temperature was at or lower than 32°F (YTD):
54 Days
Yearly average number of days where the temperature was at or lower than 32°F:
88 Days
I fat-fingered the 2021 total # of days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90°F.
It should be 53 days.
Joe, here’s this Summer’s Summary from the NWS :
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/summer22_summary
Chris – what kind of crazy moderation does this site use? I literally wrote two paragraphs and it didn’t post…I said absolute nothing that should have been censored. It happened a couple of days ago too.
When we had the change in format I’ve had no problem getting my post through. Keep trying Mark I was beginning to wonder if you were still posting comments.
It happened to me on several occasions, not so much recently, but I still routinely do a Select All > Copy before I hit send, in case it craps out.