Good Tuesday, everyone. Some folks are waking up to frost on the pumpkins this morning and that’s a sign of things to come. We have a big blast of cold on the way by the weekend and it’s one that puts the growing season in jeopardy.
Before we get into the future, let’s look at the past. The past week has been a cold one around here with thermometers averaging much colder than normal…
That entailed one of the coldest final weeks of September that you will ever find around here. That was enough to put Kentucky in a colder than normal September…
We know this is an amazing week of fall weather and we’ve fully discussed that for a while. The nice weather continues into the weekend, but with a catch. Much colder air sweeps in behind a powerful front that arrives Thursday night. This may spit out a shower or two, but it’s largely dry.
The cold behind this means temps may not get out of the upper 50s and low 60s for many Friday into the weekend. Lows can drop below freezing by Saturday and Sunday, bringing a killing frost and the potential for a light freeze…
The potential is there for another big dip in the jet stream to show up later next week and the EURO is going all in on this…
It’s worth nothing the GFS is not seeing that as of now.
As I’m really starting to buckle down on the winter forecast, I want to share some of my homework with you guys. As you know, one of the main things I look at is the state of the oceans, especially the Pacific. We continue with a La Nina as the waters along the equatorial Pacific continue to run much cooler than normal. The rest of the oceans are generally much above normal and that includes the rest of the Pacific.
This map shows the worldwide sea surface temperature anomalies…
I’ve looked back through the past 40 years worth of ocean profiles for the exact same time period and only 2020 is remotely close. Actually, 2020 is really close…
2020 was the start of the current 3 year La Nina run so we have to take that into consideration. The water temps were growing colder along the equatorial Pacific at this point, while the current water temps are slowly coming back. You can see this by looking at the Oceanic Nino Index over the past 3 years…
While 2020 and 2022 have matching current profiles, you can see the temp anomalies are heading in different directions as we enter fall and winter. That may or may not have a big impact, but it’s something to consider.
As mentioned, we are currently in a 3rd year La Nina and that’s only happened a handful of times since 1950…
2000
1985
1975
1956
The first two on the list, 2000 and 1985, gave us two of the coldest December’s on record. December 2000 is the 2nd coldest on record and featured well above normal snowfall.
Of course, that’s not to say this year will follow that same path, but it gives us an initial starting point to look at.
So, you guys now have two of my analog years to look into. 2000 and 2020 are on my list and both had historic winter periods attached to them. 2020 gave us the historic Christmas Eve snowstorm and the brutal February with back to back to back historic ice and snow storms.
Another thing I’m going to do a deep dive on is dry fall’s as this one continues to trend pretty darn dry.
Ok, that’s all you crazy kids get today. Make it a great Tuesday and take care.
Dry is definitely the word in South Central Kentucky, where we’re into the 4th week in a row without measurable rain. Fall colors are also numerous, and according to my notes from last Autumn, I’d say that in terms of color, 2022 is a solid 2 to 3 weeks ahead of last year.
Regarding the sea surface temperature anomaly map, that much above normal patch in the north Atlantic is significant in its potential to affect the trajectory of the Polar Jet Stream, and could amplify the trough over the East and Central US. If this pans out, Europe could see periodic abnormal warmth during the first half of winter, while the East and Central could see abnormal cold during the same period. If we get a period of stratospheric warming, a Polar Vortex intrusion could also be in the mix. This Winter could be memorable!
Yup. Hearing that. Already bought new all-season tires for the wife’s van – chosen for effectiveness in winter weather.
And, SOOO dry! We see the effects now, but we’ll see some next spring for sure.
The only thing that scares me in La Nina years is the increase chance of Hail and Tornado Outbreaks in the late Fall and early Spring.
I can’t recall any White Christmas’s here in Maple. It must have been in Eastern Kentucky ? My last White Christmas was in the year 2004 where we had 2 feet of Snow on the ground on Christmas Day in Vanderburgh County, Indiana.
The 1950’s and 60’s featured many Snowstorms in South Central Indiana with a lot of frigid Temperatures. It seems like that weather type is getting rare as we go forward in time.
I’m still hoping this Fall and Winter will be a typical La Nina ( Warm and Wet ? ) but who really knows for sure what will happen.