Good Wednesday, everyone. Heavy rain and a few storms are starting things out today as we focus on a continued soggy setup through the weekend. Next week has a wild look to it as we transition to a winter pattern that looks to thunder in.
Let’s kick things off with today. Heavy rain and a few storms will be out there this morning with the greatest coverage in the south and southeast. This is where some local high water issues could be noted into the morning. Here are you radars to follow along…
Another surge of heavy rain moves across the state on Thursday and lingers into Friday. Once again, the heaviest corridor of rain may impact the southern half of the state, bringing the potential for local high water issues.
The weekend system continues to look the same on the Canadian as it has a stronger look with colder air on the backside and even some Sunday night flakes…
The GFS started with no system but is inching closer to the Canadian…
Our attention quickly turns to a powerful plains storm system that looks to impact our weather starting late Tuesday into Wednesday. With this storm wrapping up to our west, we have the chance to see strong to severe storms ahead of it before winter crashes in behind it.
Once again, the Canadian is the steadiest model going…
And we also see the GFS playing catch up and trending in that same direction…
The same for the EURO…
A severe threat to winter weather is possible over the course of a day or two with that system.
All of this is happening right on cue for the week of December 12th. Watch the cold air crashing in for the middle and end of next week on the Canadian…
That goes from next Wednesday through next Friday and you can see the floodgates to cold opening. The Canadian Ensembles go all the way through December 22 and are about as cold of any Ensembles run as you will find…
It continues to be follow the leader for anything with the name of GFS as the GFS Ensembles are finally seeing the cold setup…
Buckle up, winter lovers!
I’ll have your normal updates later today. Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.
money never sleeps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
At 1:30am CST, the temperature at my PWS near Bowling Green is an unseasonable 66°F, and as of this moment, the heavy rain forecast continues to be a non-starter..Overthe past 48 hours I’ve r ecorded afraid total 0.15″ of rain here in Central Warren County. Radar shows what appears to be complex of storm heading towards the Bowling Green area, and promises a good soakingover the next few hours. That is, if it doesn’t dissipate or split around us,, a situation that we’ve experienced over and over this year. Mid-month, I believe that we’ll start to hearths Polar Vortex, although I believe that it will be a “stretched” Polar Vortex, which doesn’t require stratospheric cooling like a standard PV.
hows it going have high water when the rivers are already dried up. my bunker hasnt had a river since spring.
I would love to see some sun today.
There is no rain in my forecast but it is going to remain overcast.
After a few months back of moderate to severe drought we finally received over an inch of rain. A great start, but we need much more rains to replenish the soils. Good question Rolo, ” hows it going to flood if the creeks and rivers are at near record low levels ? ” Plenty of room for excess runoff in the creeks, rivers and ditches. Erosion, however maybe a problem on unprotected soils.
Looking at this morning’s teleconnections. The AO is currently very negative and the NAO is negative, but not so much as the AO. This tells me the Polar low ( Polar Vortex ) is strong and at the present shows the signal to build frigid Arctic Air in Canada and especially in Siberia. Hoping the Polar low stays strong so the real frigid Arctic Air doesn’t invade our part of the World.
Could have unseasonably warm and maybe severe weather threats next week, but at this time it’s too early to forecast ? But I have been concerned about severe weather for months now. I’m now ready for a major Snowstorm for Christmas.
By the way, the Atlantic still showing Tropical activity. I sure will be delighted to finally observe an end to this La Nina phase sometime I hope before Winter ends ?
Despite several cold shots of air, meteorological Fall 2022 averaged 1.0 degree per day above normal here in the Chicago area, and was the 12th consecutive meteorological season (Fall, Winter, Spring, Summer) that averaged above normal. The last time a meteorological season finished below normal here was Fall of 2019.
https://weather.gov/lot/Fall_November_2022_Climate_Summaries
There is also an ongoing moderate D1 drought here, as precipitation since June 1st is more than 7 inches below normal through much of the Chicago area, and was more than 4 inches below normal this Fall.
The GFS Ensembles seem to be showing a more moderate brand of cold air for the middle and end of next week than the severe cold that the Canadian Ensembles are showing.
For the next week, temperatures here in the Chicago area are going to average well above normal with several chances for rain. I think the severe cold won’t be here until closer to Christmas at least, but who knows if there’s going to be any significant snowfall by then.
It appears the ” Southeast Ridge ” might be influencing your area too Mike. I don’t remember observing the ridge being this large and strong. It will weaken hopefully soon and maybe you and our area will have more chances for snowy days and not Spring like weather in December.
Good point Rolo, it’s seems like here lately every time there’s rain forecast they always pinpoint flash flood possible. So far here in my world we haven’t received the beneficial rain that we need. all been south of us.
Unfortunately, the rain has come to an end here in Maple. The ‘ rain train ‘ has moved south and doesn’t at this time seem to move back north. Early this morning we were lucky to be on the north edge of a lone thundershower.
Chris, your maps are not loading. They will load, but are very slow if I refresh your site. Never had this problem before. Been going on for two weeks now.
I’ve noticed the map loading problem as well, Schroeder, the most annoying problem for me is when I finish typing and hit Post Comment, about half the time it seems to load, but when I scroll down, the post isn’t there. It happens with my tablet and my smartphone, so it’s not the device. These days, I always copy my text before posting, just in case.
My weather station picked up 0.63″ of rain overnight and the low temperature never dipped below 60°. The stationary front is right over South Central Kentucky, but most of the precipitation is South of the border.
Next week’s forecasted blast of cold has all the symptoms of a “stretched” Polar Vortex, which differs from a standard PV in that it does not rely on stratospheric warming. That much cold air will probably push the storm track even further south, lowering our snow chances
It’s sort of ironic that the northward flow of Gulf moisture that is sort of a La Niña trademark is missing. I’m still not seeing any movement towards an ENSO neutral phase, in fact it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we see a weak La Niña state through the Spring!