Good Sunday, everyone. A few showers remain out there today, but our focus is on a busy week ahead. It’s the week of big changes that will usher in a full blown winter pattern that’s likely to take us through Christmas and into the beginning of the new year.
Clouds are going to be awfully stubborn out there today as chillier air slips in from the north and northeast. Temps are in the seasonable 40s with just a few lingering showers, especially early on. A touch of drizzle or mist may be noted later in the day.
Here are your friendly radars for your drop tracking pleasure…
Monday does try to bring us some breaks in the sky and that would be more than a welcome sight. Temps continue to run on the seasonable side of the thermometer.
This brings us to the mid-week storm system and the change to winter coming in behind it.
Some thoughts on how this looks to play out:
- A potent low pressure in the plains will turn into a blizzard for some areas of the plains and upper midwest late Monday through Wednesday.
- That low will turn east toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday and Wednesday. At the same time, another storm takes over along the east coast and lifts northward.
- What does all this mean for Kentucky? A lot.
- Heavy rain and gusty winds will move in for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some thunder may be noted in the far west, but the strong storm threat is south of us.
- A powerful cold front sweeps through here Wednesday night and Thursday. This will initially dry our skies out as temps crash.
- As the storm cranks along the east coast, and that may be near blizzard strength, an upper level system drops in here from the northwest.
- Ample low-level moisture under that upper level system will likely create rounds of light snow and snow showers from Thursday night into next weekend.
- My early thought is that our region can get into some light accumulating snows during this time.
The Canadian Model continues to be fairly steady with the overall evolution of this setup…
And the snow map from that run…
The EURO is the most progressive now, but has the setup…
Here’s the snow map from the EURO…
The GFS has given its worshippers a wild ride with a different solution with each run. Thankfully, we don’t worship at the altar of the GFS. 😜 Still, the model is back in the game in showing the overall setup that we’ve been talking about for a long time now…
Here’s the GFS snow map from that run…
The week leading up to Christmas looks absolutely frigid and may very well feature a major arctic blast. The Ensembles have been all over this for a while and they are still showing some serious cold…
Canadian Ensembles
GFS Ensembles
Both of those go through the day after Christmas, with the cold showing no signs of letting up.
Both of those same runs also show snow threats well into the deep south…
Canadian Ensembles
That covers every single state in the lower 48!!
The GFS Ensembles allow only Florida to escape…
🎵I’m Dreaming of a ❄️🎄🎅
Updates come your way later today. Have a good Sunday and take care.
get up crystal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m dreaming of GFS (Gently Falling Snow!)
Maybe we get the cold around a week before Christmas…then it stays through Jan/Feb…
All I see is Festive Flakes.
Festiva!
We must never forget what happened one year ago :
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/collections/8243cae7290947b1ab389c56ccb98445?item=3
Next week’s weather type I’ll give it a Big Potential.
I would comment on the 6z GFS, but it will look completely different by 12z. I will say snow means jumped again, almost statewide on the GEFS.