Good Tuesday, everybody! It’s another fairly nice weather day, but a big storm system is about to slam the bluegrass state. A lot of rain will usher in a winter pattern that’s likely to turn harsh for much of the country heading into Christmas week.

Let’s start with the system about to impact our weather. Let’s freshen up the breakdown:

  • Heavy rain and gusty winds move in tonight and early Wednesday. Some thunder may be noted in the far west, but the strong storm threat is south of us.
  • Rainfall totals should average 1″-2″ for most of the state with some 2″-3″ amounts possible in the southeast. That’s where some local high water issues are possible.
  • A powerhouse of a cold front sweeps through here Wednesday night and Thursday. This will initially dry our skies out as temps crash.
  • Winds will be gusty and may top 40mph in the west as the front enters the picture Wednesday.
  • Low-level moisture under that upper level system will drop in later Friday into Saturday. That should spawn areas of light snow and flurries.
  • Some light accumulations will be possible across central and eastern Kentucky, but it’s not a big deal. It may get you in the Christmas spirit, though. 🎄🎅

Here’s what the models look like with the rainfall…

As expected, the GFS totals are coming down and will continue to do so…

The light snow and flurries coming behind this continue to show up much better on the Canadian than other models…

The pattern after this turns extreme and will feature some absolutely wicked winter weather for much of the country. We are heading into the deep freeze and this winter pattern will also feature several big winter systems working across the country. Details of each are a long way from being known and the operational models will continue to struggle for a while. Still, they’re fun to look at to get an idea of the potential…

CANADIAN

GFS

EURO

The Ensembles continue to paint a brutally cold pattern. These animations go from December 19 through December 26…

GFS ENSEMBLES

CANADIAN ENSEMBLES

The ensembles continue to spit out snow chances galore over the next 2 weeks…

Updates come your way later today, so check back. Until then, I leave you with your radars to track the rain and some thunder in from the west…

Have a good one and take care.