Good Monday, everyone. Extreme is the word we’ve thrown around a lot over the past few years when describing our weather. That’s a pretty good word to use on what we have rolling our way over the next several days. Record high temps, severe thunderstorms, arctic cold and snow are all possible within 48 hours of one another. Got your attention yet?
A surge of spring air continues to filter into the bluegrass state today. This will send temps toward 60 degrees in the far west and into the 50s for the rest of the area. Scattered showers and gusty winds will make it look and feel more like the middle of March.
That mild air will become downright warm tomorrow. Temps will head into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees for much of the commonwealth. Temps in that range will put us within striking distance of record highs. Wind gusts from 30mph to 40mph will be likely.
A powerhouse of a cold front will cross the state Wednesday and this means business. A squall line of thunderstorms will be likely along this front as it races eastward. Here’s how the NAM sees it…
Some of those storms may be severe. Here’s the latest threat for Tuesday from the Storm Prediction Center…
That threat will likely be expanded east for Wednesday.
Even without thunderstorms… wind gusts may approach 50mph along and just behind the front as it blows through here. Temps will start the day around 60 and then crash into the 30s from west to east. Light snow will be possible by the end of the day.
Arctic air will then sweep into the state for Thursday and Friday. Snow showers and flurries will be possible Thursday and then we watch two potential snow makers diving in from the northwest. The first arrives Thursday night and Friday with the next one coming in over the weekend.
This will be a wild ride of a weather week, so buckle up.
I will update things later today. Make it a great start to the week and take care.
Going to be an interesting weather cycle.
Ahhhh….nice round of golf on tap for Tuesday! That should tide me over a few weeks anyway! Lets see if we can finally see a nice event this February! Have a great day and enjoy the warmup while it lasts!
WWII
It’s simple – warm up, rain, thunderstorms, Artic Front, cold air, cloudy or sunny or ice then back to a warm up. Been like this for two years. Notice what I left out? Snow.
got to love Ky weather. You never know what you might get. At least it’s never boring. Thanks Chris for the update. I stayed up just to see it.
Wow……
Yep, wow that the main theme is spring like storms followed by a chance for another potential inch of snow.
Will most of us bust past one inch of snow for winter? The suspense! 🙂
Hope its not ice again next weekend. I fell off the porch hit the sidewalk Friday checking to see how slick it was outside. Lucky I didn’t get hurt worse then a cut elbow.
Hope storms don’t to bad tues nite/ weds. Lot of bad wounds from last march still in lot of ky residents minds. Wont be that bad I don’t think, but it may.
I remember it getting severe end of jan in 2008. Seems as if clay and laurel both were under tornado warnings during the event. Behind the front, in arkasas, it got really cold same time ky was under tornado warnings. The wife and I thought we would freeze to death walking to wendys from our hotel room. We were on our way home from houston and stopped for thr night in arkansas. We made it home next night and it was as cold here as it was in arkansas the night before.
We got a good clipper in march on the 8th the same year. Got a short film we made with a digital camera of that clipper system. Couple good inches of snow. 3 or 4 I forget. Maybe we get a little snow here soon.
Thursday night into Friday………translation: this weekend or next week.
Still have those new snowboards…..didn’t risk trying them on the 1″-3″ snow we didn’t get last Thursday. It was a bit too green and brown to try snowboarding.
I feel ya man, I just dropped five grand on a snow mobile…ya know cause we get so much snow in KY we can use things like that.
If you want snow, literally all states around us get snow, so not too far to go 😉
Tis’ a heavy price for the snow fans, our state of Fencetucky
According to the maps, it’s the western half of the state that has to worry about this system coming in during the night. I feel for you all. Hopefully, this system will continue our trend of under performing. No complaints on this one if it does. While, I hold ZERO expectation of accumulating snow, our local reservoir will welcome the much needed rain.
I know things will change, but a recent look at the top 15 analogs for the upcoming springlike storm two days out, shows a fairly widespread outbreak of severe weather across Arkansas, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky. Nevertheless, everybody in the region could be affected.
Of interest to me was a comment made by a forecaster at the NWS office here in Louisville, commenting on the possible wind fields just above the surface based on NAM:
“The NAM solutions suggest a 75-85kt 850 hPa low-level jet axis pushing into the Ohio Valley. Quite frankly it is one of the strongest low-level jet depictions I`ve seen fromthe NAM in a while.”
What does this mean? Dont understand weather talk very much.
I think it means in lament terms that the winds near the surface are going to be above hurricane strength.
Formula 1 knot = 1.15 mph
That is indeed something to lament 😉
lament = laymen, Relying on spell check can come back to bite you just like a forecast model.
The 850 hPa level is at roughly 5,000 ft. So they’re expecting winds at that level to reach approx. 100 mph.
Any chance one of those latter week clippers will lay a stripe of accumulating in western or southern Kentucky? I know to NOT count on it, but still wondering anyway…
Just took a quick glimpse at the 6z GFS, what a surprise the clipper system will bring 3/4 of the state a nice steady rain. You know it is bad when you cannot pick up a snow flake from a system diving out of the north during the winter.
Hopefully, the model is under estimating the depth of the cold. We shall see if we can receive the ankle bitter we all been desperately seeking this year.
Depth of the cold and it 65 degrees??
I do not know if you are being sarcastic or misunderstanding me but my point of reference is to the mighty clipper system that is headed towards us Thursday night.
Looks like no more arctic air
It came,it saw,and retreated.
It sucks that I’m gonna have to drive through it. I dread it already. I think I have a severe weather phobia. Weather is interesting, but I literally hate storms.
One degree away from our forecast high of 55 at 9am in the morning. Woot.
I wonder how much this warm shot is going to decimate the snow pack (as it were) to our north and further hinder our chances going forward?
Thanks, Chris. Boy, if we could just get ONE system to behave as it should, we coul dget a good snow. As it is, sounds like the wind will be too strong to fly a kite, so just hang on. IT sounds like a wild ride!
NWS already saying any snow this week will be minor accumulation at best, spring weather front then one cold day with flurries, Blaw, Blaw Blaw!
I am ready for Spring. If I hear another word about possible snow, arctic cold or clipper systems I will move to New Zealand! (At least until their winter arrives in June). In the meantime I will enjoy today and tomorrow.
testing 1,2,3
my how time flies! long time go you left us for unknown parts for a couple of years….and I don’t feel a bit older…glad you are ‘testy’!!
Crazy to see that much rain on the radar, and that far north, on Jan. 28. Geesh!
” Record high temps, severe thunderstorms, arctic cold and snow are all possible within 48 hours of one another.”
No doubt we will see record high temps and severe thunderstorms…Arctic Cold and snow(i guess if you mean one day gets down to 26 and a flurry)!
Really?
Anyone else losing their comments in cyberspace?
Happens to all of us from time to time, don’t know why. I’ve had long posts go through but not short ones – go figure.
I’ve learned to copy my posts before sending. If it doesn’t go through, I re-paste and try editing/shortening the post; that usually works.
I think someone has fed ol’ man winter a healthy dose of tylenol pm the last couple winters. 🙁
They need to give it some laxatives and clear all that warm air out 🙂
I like blender
Riddle, is there any weather related reason for the word game? Just asking.
Good Question?
Does it matter? All the ridiculous crap people post on here bashing one another, is it really that big of a deal that I post something random? It gets far to uptight on here sometimes lol. Someone has to break the ice.
Cheese puffs. Jeopardy. I’m a good driver.
Atleast our complaining makes since 😉
Crazy Ky weather but Chris is on top of it as usual. Chris does this winter favor a wet and wild spring with tornadoes
Storm Prediction Center now has moderate risk for severe storms on Tue for parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and extreme southwestern TN including Memphis.
At this time, our area could get some isolated twisters (especially western parts of KY/TN) with otherwise mainly a damaging straight-line wind event from a squall line. However, squall line twisters – while generally less powerful than supercell twisters – tend to give less warning time even when using radar, so important to have a wx alert alarm ready, especially at night.
Squall line twister back in Feb 2011 in Henry County KY. An EF3, somewhat unusually strong for a squall line tornado.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=feb28_2011_tornadoes
One Henry County couple was awakened by their wx alert alarm, barely had enough time to go to basement before most of their house disappeared.
The alarm may have saved their lives.
But another couple in another home was awakened by the tornado itself, could do little more than duck under the bed. Very lucky to escape serious injury as their house was destroyed.
[have to split this post up, won’t let me post all of it at once]
Wet day here in Lily ky
JKL starting to outline severe thunderstorm/ tornado threat for Tues night/Wednesday. Thus Spring begins early in Kentucky. We would all like the afterglow of an after snow, but preferably not a severe weather outbreak.
This latest period of mild temps (today, tomorrow, and Wednesday) will once again push last winter warmer than this winter.
Three things I take from this:
1: These now have the serious potential to be the one of only two consecutive winters to be in the Top 10 Warmest for Lexington. We are simply running out of time, and I see forecasts for temps to be back into the 50’s early next week. The other cycle 1949-1950. Those records date back to 1872.
2: I know Chris is forecasting the pattern, as is Brian Goode, as was John Belski when he said “I guarantee this winter will be colder than last winter.” This is not a criticism of any of the folks that are trying to forecast the pattern, but perhaps the pattern has permanently changed. Which leads me to…
3: Either this is a short-term blip in climate cycles or this is the “new winter here.” Next winter should be the tell-tale. We have never had three winters in a row end up in the Top 10 Warmest.
Do you see any possibility for tornados in West Liberty for Wednesday?
upper 20s=arctic air? wow
Hey, they to work with SOMETHING 😉
Perhaps arctic air is a relative term to Cozumel?? 🙂
If this is the “new winter” in Kentucky, than yes.
So far atleast mets are not calling late week a blast of winter like last week, my blast was a dusting of snow and a couple of nights in the teens!
Several days ago I asked if /WXMAN and/or MJ had been blocked. I heard from MJ, but never from WXMAN, so I went over to “his” blog and read a few comments and they are beyond condescending. It is fine to disagree and from time-to-time and to prod at Chris for his enthusiasm for winter weather. But personal attacks, I think, are uncalled for. Don’t know why some people can’t learn to agree to disagree from time to time and do it in a respectful manner.
I’m not met, but I know Chris and most of you are disappointed with the past two winters. Did Chris hype it? Maybe. But I bet his is just like all of us–wanting to see some good snow and cold. I’m not going to criticize him for that, thought I might point out facts from time to time that tell just how warm and snowless we have been.
Rant over. Thanks for listening, or not listening, and may the Cats finally get a big win tomorrow night!