Good Tuesday, everyone. A very active 48 hour period is upon us as a strong cold front gets set to swing through the state. Record highs, severe thunderstorms, a temp plunge and some snow make up the forecast during this time period.
Here’s what to expect:
– Temps today will surge into the upper 60s and low 70s. Record highs are in serious jeopardy.
– Gusty winds may reach 30mph to 40mph at times.
– Our cold front will press closer to western Kentucky late this evening into the overnight. A squall line of thunderstorms will develop and work eastward. Damaging winds will be the main player with this line of storms. We will also have to keep an eye on thunderstorms going up ahead of this main line. That may pose a tornado threat across far western parts of the state.
– The squall line and severe weather threat will then progress into central and eastern Kentucky late tonight and Wednesday morning. Damaging winds will continue to be a threat during this time.
– Temps will start in the 60s and fall into the 30s by Wednesday evening. Some snow flurries will be possible during this time.
– Arctic air will continue to funnel in here Thursday and Friday with snow showers possible Thursday. We have two light snow threats… one for Thursday night/Friday and then again on Saturday.
Let’s track today’s severe weather threat…
Current Watches
Possible Watches
I will have updates as needed and have updates via twitter. Follow me: @kentuckyweather
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
gonna be interesting. Tomorrow will be a good day to open windows and let fresh warm air blow in. love it
sorry I meant to say today, I haven’t been asleep yet so it’s still yesterday for me.
Wall of wind will be late at night. That will probably wake some folks up at night, depending on when it hits.
I remember a few blizzards when we would see walls of snow in the distance and then BOOM! Big snow, baby!
Memories, like the corners of my mind, misty water colored memories…… of the way we werrrrrre. Sing it Barbara!
Sing it Barbara.
BubbaG, I can think of some other memories of the way we were, as well, but since this is a weather blog, I will keep those memories to myself! 😉 I DO like the analogy, though.
Thanks, Chris. Wouldn’t it be nice to get the big moisture and the cold together at the same time and have it ehave like it should? In any event, January is ending with a BANG. Let’s hope February can give us a good snow. Thanks for all you do. Have a great Tuesday, everyone!
Looks like western TN and perhaps extreme western KY will get a fair shot of some supercells which could put down some tornadoes this evening. This along with destructive straight-line t-storm winds.
As the storms moves east, the supercell threat may largely subside. Damaging winds along the squall line would be the threat with the highest probability, with an isolated twister or two still possible. However, again, while squall line twisters may tend to be somewhat weaker than supercell twisters, squall line tornadoes give less warning. So have your weather alert alarm systems ready, especially when you are asleep.
Ah I can hear my television now.. The national weather service in Louisville Kentucky has issued a severe.. Feels like spring!
Just had tornado drill in our school. Eastern KY is getting ready; we have fresh memories of tornados, last Spring, that flattened everything just a few miles up the road.
Just had tornado drill in our school. Eastern KY is getting ready; we have fresh memories of tornadoes, last Spring, that flattened everything just a few miles up the road.
Sorry for the repeat…thought I caught it.
Thanks Chris for the update!!!
Looks to be a pretty windy night for KY. Will be nice to see some lighting and here claps of thunder to get us ready for the upcoming spring season. Then lets hope for a couple of overperforming clippers. Glad to see that they are moisture starved….Can only go up from there with, no disappointments!!.
Have a great day everyone. Be prepared for the worst tonight!!!! It is best to prepare and have nothing happen than to scramble at the last minute.
This is what the NWS out of Jackson is saying
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jkl/wx/File.png
Do you think supercells will maintain strength through the night or will we see straight line threat before noon?
For Eastern KY folks I’m not concerned about Severe weather but you need to ask somebody a lot smarter than me.
NWS Jackson KY has an updated web briefing about the severe wx:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/
The SPC has been indicating that the supercell threat will be relatively high for western KY but likely will lesson toward eastern KY. This is nothing like not March 2 2012 (which included a ridiculously strong jet stream over eastern KY which helped trigger the West Liberty and Saylorsville twisters). This time it could be more of an isolated tornado or two but mainly a high threat of strong damaging straight-line winds.
Maybe a busy night an early morning Chris. Spring like morning here in the valley of lily ky.Be A u T full day
well the cold spe did mot last long enough red wasps out and about
I’ve been studying the different analogs that would compare most favorably with this storm system. One that keeps popping up is the Super Tuesday outbreak of February 5-6, 2008. Eerily similar.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=top10tornadooutbreaks
Look at number 4 for Super Tuesday.
This does not mean that we will see these conditions again. However, several factors are lining up for an outbreak of severe weather including tornadoes. At this time, the latest information keeps the bulk of the tornado threat to our west and south. But, SPC has upgraded parts of Kentucky to a 5% risk. Western KY may be upgraded to a MODERATE risk for severe weather later.
I’m thrilled that we’ve escaped Winter without any snow : ) Bring on the Spring and warm weather : )
BA HUM BUG!
Ditto!! BRING ON SPRING!
Barb….Hate to tell you, but winter is not over until 2nd week of March. We will get our snow…..If not, oh well!!!!
Any chance of accumulating snows with the system Thursday night? I haven’t seen any links with information.
Looks like another glancing blow of winter this week , temps back to near 50 by Monday!
The average high for February is the upper 40’s, so that’s about normal.
Greg Forbes has a Torcon of 5 for East KY tomorrow. He was spot on back in March.
Looks like Western Kentucky now in the Moderate Risk category. That always makes me a tad nervous, especially if it hits at night like this one is predicted to do.
As for snow, all we get is ice in Western Kentucky. I’d rather have 50s than ice. If ice is all we’ll get, bring on spring.
The 70’s have arrived in parts of eastern KY
Dewpoints in the 55-60 range right now across central and west KY
Winds are steadily increasing out west (25-30mph consistent gusts)
New tornado watch just issued for much of Missouri except for part of the Missouri boot heel. At this rate, western KY will be next. As Wayne mentioned in a previous post, western KY now in a moderate risk for severe wx.
Things better start picking up to our wesr or this will be another bust. Had one tornado warning in Missouri earlier but now not much going on. I guess we will see what happens.
Lets hope this is a bust!
Things weren’t suppose to really fire up until later this evening, into the night
We want severe storms???????? Kind of morbid, yes? Like driving around looking for accidents??????
I agree. Just saying you have like one Severe T-storm warning in Missouri right now. This thing better start firing or all these mets gonna look foolish again.
I guess a night time severe threat is something they can risk busting after what happen last march!
Short Lived super cell tornando’s. No fun at night. Should be ok along the river…..Western KY has the best shot. All of Kentucky will have high winds regardless the storm threat. Be prepared is what all the mets are saying.
Tornado warnings starting to pop up eastern OK, into West AR. East KY has a Torcon of 5 tomorrow morning, Dr. Forbes is a met I would want to pay attention to, during severe weather.
In my mind there’s nothing foolish about telling everyone to be aware of an increased risk of severe storms that could potentially produce tornadoes. This isn’t like our prayed for snow… if not one tornado comes of this I hope we’ll all be thankful and not care whether or not the mets were wrong.
Frankfort warning sirens are down tonight so that throws a little more concern for this area with the approach of dangerous weather?
I would rely on a weather radio more than a siren.
Agree 1000 percent.
Alot of folks do not purchase the weather radios!
There is opportunities through out the year, to get them for free!
My goats are wild and crazy acting today here in the valley of Lily ky hope that’s not a sign of the storms heading this way haha .when will Chris update again I’m kinda new on here.
Just saw where Huntington made a new record high of 85 today! The old record was 72 in 1903. Too crazy! I’m afraid we’re going to pay big for this beautiful warm day! Be careful everyone!
Sounds like they need to update their thermometer?
Yeah, I thought that was too high too! My car said 74. Oh well, even that would have broken the old record!
Oh, WSAZ meteorologist, Tony Cavalier, just stated the temp sensor at tri-state airport was broken and it didn’t get to 85! Duh!
Seems straight line winds are a given for this, but who knows on the other stuff. The only thing we can count on is not much snow.
I agree with Rolo about the arctic air. More like normal winter air, before warm air became the main playa’. Even the colder air seems short lived for next week. Yeppers, most of the wild ride is a spring theme followed by super short winter wink 😉
Last winter went very similar. Only difference is we actually had “bust” past the 1″ snow total already. Can the bar go even lower?
Boo on the bar!
BTW, let us hope the Kittens turn into The Cats tonight.
just as winter chances are few, the young cats season is getting very short as well?
The cats need to change their TREND 😉
Tonight needs to be THEIR trend buster 🙂
I wonder how annoying the Henderson kid will be tonight?
VERY, but a trend buster might pt a muzzel on him?
Put 🙂
Hey guys, Thomas from Murray, KY. I hope this scenario doesn’t play out here in western KY. Friend of mind blogged about possible serial derecho playing out, had to look it up to know what he was talking about. If I’m not mistaken that scenario that happened in spring of 2011 here was when we had straight line winds clocked at 100 mph. Numerous trees down and kids out of school for a thunderstorm due to roads being blocked. Be safe all.
I remember it happening in February of 2008 as well — horrible straight line winds here in Lexington. The sirens went off and in several neighborhoods they had to have whoever it is that comes out come out to figure out if it was a tornado or straightline winds. Our street was untouched, but two steets behind ours it was literally tree after tree uprooted (and these were huge old trees, not little ones). Cars were smashed, several had fallen on houses and there was tons of roof damage throughout the area. Those winds are nothing to play around with.
I always stay up when over night severe weather hits and I remember that storm last spring. We had no warning from our local weather and all of a sudden the house starts creaking and popping. Winds lasted about five minutes, but I had no idea how bad it was till the next morning on the way to work.
Mark –
About your post above where you said this is not going to be anything like the March tornadoes because there was a ridiculously strong jet stream over eastern KY then……….Shows how much I know! I wasn’t aware the jetstream needed to be on top of you for that to happen. I thought it was just the clash of warm & cold air….. I guess I need to do some reading and learning. Ha!
That is why a lot of the national news media camped in Kentucky that day. They were expecting something bad due to the stars aligning in a bad way, right over Kentucky.
No problem! I’m still a neophyte at weather compared to MJ and others.
My 91 year old grandmother recently said she still learns new things all the time 🙂
Here’s link about March 2 2012, from the friendly guys and gals at NWS Charleston WV:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rlx/mar2/index.php
do think we see few inches snow thursday thru friday.
Still holding out hope! Welcome back
On TV 🙂
What time is 12z? Jackson says line should be just west of I-75 by 12 or 13z..
7am thru 8am
Here’s the lazy way I sometimes use to convert zulu time 🙂
http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/info/current-time/
What time will storm move through Somerset area ? “about”
2 questions–1. what was the date of the bad weather day last year when we had tornados? 2. what was it about that day that the weather people all correctly predicted that it would be bad–it is scary to think back of schools dismissing early ?
Kandy, the date was Mar. 2nd. I will never forget it. Not sure exactly what it was that made all the weather people sit up and take notice, but I remember our TorCon index was a 10 and it only went up to 8. The weather people on here could answer the cause question better.
Cats win tonight an turn the season around.
As CB just tweeted, a new tornado watch is likely soon, part of which could cover western KY. The SPC has a Mesoscale Discussion about this.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
Watch due out anytime for western KY
Winds at least 55mph expected near Louisville betw 3:30 and 4:30 am
Little Rock under a tornado warning now, radar indicated at this time (no sightings so far). Individual supercells in the area.
Live tv coverage
http://www.todaysthv.com/thv2/default.aspx
Arkansas under tornado watch that may be just under criteria for a PDS watch (Particularly Dangerous Situation). I’m a little nervous, as my area (Nashville TN) is not far from the area with moderate risk of severe wx and a relatively elevated risk for tornadoes.
Vast contrast between wx in Nashville now and on this date in 1951.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=1951icestorm
Some of pics look like parts of KY and Indiana back in 2009 (I lived in Evansville IN then).