Good Tuesday afternoon. We have quite the model battle going on between the GFS and the NAM with the Wednesday storm. The GFS has much less precipitation and is weaker with the low, while the NAM is stronger with the low and has more precipitation.
The end result…
GFS Snowfall Forecast
NAM Snowfall Forecast
The NAM says we start as rain then dynamic cooling kicks in late morning into the afternoon and switches the rain over to a period of moderate to heavy snow. The weaker solution of the GFS says no dynamic cooling gets involved so it’s mainly a rain/snow mix with a period of light snow.
The truth is likely in between these two solutions, but the NAM smoked the GFS on the northeastern blizzard a few days ago. Of course… most models smoked the GFS on that storm.
On a related note… the Canadian and NOGAPS models continue to show a major winter storm around here this weekend. I guess we will see.
Updates coming later today and on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Take care.
LET’S GO NAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ditto
Now that sounds like a blend we can live with, nam says bam!
Man, those are far apart for one day out. In this case, I think a better solution is from the IJG model. It’s widely used by TV mets; Chris is a rare exception.
Anybody else familiar with the IJG? The “I’m Just Guessing” model?
A big fat LOL…..love it!
Given our past history, I think the GFS is the best bet…
Looking at radar south& west of here moisture will not be the problem, temps and the dynamic cooling is the issue for a few inches of snow?
Oklahoma is having no problem with the mid 30s and getting heavy snow today!
So what factors would make Oklahoma get Dynamic cooling and snow and not us with this same storm, just out of curiosity? Not that we won’t have dynamic cooling tomorrow? Also, why is there NO snow in western KY? It’s almost as if it just stops at Oklahoma, then starts again into parts of KY? Just seems odd that dynamic cooling would be in Oklahoma, then stop in Ark, TN, and west KY, then start again in Central and eastern KY on up through the east. I don’t get it.
Good question on that, seems even though we are further north than Oklahoma they seem to always have better dynamic cooling down that way?
Maybe the upper level energy weakens as it moves east so less cold air is pulled down into the storm, just a guess?
Just seen Knox County blow alot of money pretreating roads for rain LoL guess they haven’t learned that all it does is rain all it does is rain
Obviously they have loads of old salt they need to get rid of.
no doubt we have had more salt than snow this yr
I feel your pain brother.
I don’t see how we get anything but cold rain tomorrow. It’s been too warm, and the forecast lows aren’t that cold. And this is another southern fed system. We’ve seen how those have panned out so far this winter. But I’m no meteorologist…..
Swathman borrows an L , drops the w & h, and becomes Saltman….Saltman will be the only measurable precip Wednesday night.
saltman started early already pre-treated the roads
hey even if it snows a foot wed night, the temp se ky on thurs is 52 so what good will that do
now this weekend might be a surprise to us … temps will be perfect for a good snow dump
go ask the person that is forcasting 52 degrees. I can guarantee you 1 thing jack if it snows a foot it wouldn’t be 52 degrees the next day and thats a fact jack
That’s wack! I want a fat snow that cats laugh at Jack, that’s a fact.
Me to i love it when people come on here and act like Chris is giving warm temps the day of or after a snow and try to say he says its going to snow and be 50 degrees. They should go back and tell the people that is giving 50s that it can’t be 50 becaues its going to snow
Actually Chris is the very one that said Se ky would be 53 on Thu, the day after he said it would snow … Now that’s the facts jack, not a whack, good in the sack, don’t smoke crack, you’re a hack, and you lack, I’m the mack, but I’m not zack, just uncle si
Is this a weather site?
Your a wannabe Si. Chris did not say 50s the day after snow for SE KY
On that, I’ve got your back…Jack…
Oh crap!
Very interesting storm.
Where you located and What’s your elevation in WV? Are you near Snowhoe?
Randolph County, North of snowshoe, around 3500ft or so, still have high speed internet.
Little bit south of Canaan if you know that area.
I know it well. Used to live on West Ridge Road at Snowshoe. Worked at the sadly defunct Red Fox.
One of my favorite places in the World is near you…Dolly Sods. Sure do miss the mountains, especially in the summer.
Place where you can be at 45 degrees at noon on a July day, drop off the mountain and be 75 at the bottom.
ok. yea. I know the general location. Figured you had to be up in elevation to get all that snow.
about the weekend storm, how often is the Canadaian and NOGAPS correct after the storm? i always here about the GFS, NAM, or EURO getting praise after calling a big storm in advance, but what about the other 2?
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/jkl/StormTotal/StormTotalSnow.png
Less than an inch in Knox Co. sounds about right. That would equal our total for the year though.
I could care less which model is correct there is no those for Louisville
Chris says at 4 pm news he will not even put out a snowfall map for tomorrow, now watch this one overachieve?
Then why say the truth is between the GFS and NAM? Warm air seems to be the presumed winner then. I never would have guessed it! 😉
So the real truth is between a rock and a hard place 😉
NWS in Louisville saying tomorrow will be a now casting situation because of unknowns in the upper dynamic cooling possibilities, heavy banding could form especially from Lexington east? Maybe a sneaky snow for some folks in eastern KY??
All very interesting.
not interested anymore. Hubby turned the garden today. I am dreaming of warm sunshine and playing in the dirt.
Dynamic cooling usually doesn’t work for us as of late. I’d go with GFS.
Dynamic warming 🙂
And daytime cooling
Another nice warm, winter day. Who wants to chart how many days this winter have seen highs of 50+ vs. highs of 32 or less? 🙂 Both should be equally probable, but I bet you know the score!
29-10 in favor of 50+ at Lexington, through today, and Lexington is one of the cooler reporting stations in Kentucky.
Awful hard to believe “winter is coming” when you see that kind of stat!
that says it all right there….being a snow lover in Kentucky is starting to feel like being a Cubs fan in September!
Yeah–The last time we had any hope was at least a decade ago! 🙂
can’t believe people saying winter is returning with that stat when it never showed 😉
Instead of creating a cult of personality, it is creating a cult of ‘winterality’ 🙂
Good one, G…
Well – don’t be surprised. Remember last march we ended up with five inches of very wet snow in Lexington and it was beautiful!
We did not. About a mile before Clays Ferry an inch or so and NOTHING in south Richmond and on down.
I can vouche for Mark on this one, as east Louisville had 5.5″
I can vouch for Bubba G on this one as well
It is the north of the river and I64 snow elite 🙂
so true!!
Glad everyone had their vouchers…
Just to be fair–here are the stats from last winter (Through Feb 12, at Lexington)
50+ 32 days
32 or less 5 days
And from 2010-2011
50+ days 6 days
32 or less 34 days
I don’t want to call anyone out–but almost all the local mets called for this winter to be closer to 2010-2011 than 2011-2012. The facts just don’t back that up!
you are not calling anyone out. It is what it is…
Look, Bailey even understands he has to almost try to give us straws to grasp at this winter when there really isn’t anything to see. It’s a blog and he wants to keep viewers coming back. However, it has to be wearing on him and all the mets in Kentucky as to how winterless the winter has been the past few years.
As Marklex said, our big snow of the winter last year was in March! That says it all, as well.
For who? We got 1.5″ total last winter and a tad over 2″ this winter. Perception is in the backyard and I understand that. Ours is more salt than snow for two winters in a row.
Bubba–I have not quoted snow–only temp stats in my last two posts. I could give you the snow stats from my backyard, but I already have. I would say the temp stats are more representative of the area.
I was replying to c-BIV.
Tornado weekend….West liberty had 4″+ snow on March 4th…helped friends move belongings in a snowstorm.
What?
What is the latest name??
Clay got its biggest snow all winter last winter on Sunday feb 18th I think was the date. Chris first call had us in 6 to 12 seems like. Was a lot of rain then a switch to snow. I wanna say clay got around 5 to 6 inches from that storm. I think everyone forgot that event.
All I know UK season is over,Noel injury just put a fork in it. The winters hype is over likewise. Wait until next year.(lol)
They still have a chance at making the tournament, but even with Noel (great kid), they were unstable and could lose to anybody. Noel was their best player though, but a few people playing together never equals a team. This team does not play like a “team”. Coach Cal has said that a few times, so not me conjecturing, but in full agreement.
Snow chances have been meh for a while.
That’s what you get when you play 5 high school kids at the college level….
Was Sunday the 19th 2012
wow…the NAM leaves Louisville naked. I truly want some snow….
I think this storm will leave most if not all KY naked, snow wise!
I remember the Nam… Tom Berringer tried to hit me in the head with a shovel! Wait, that was the movie Platoon and was Charlie Sheen almost getting hit. Winning! 🙂
Yeh, I remember Michael J. Fox and me grinding out the clicks in Casualties of War too….or was that the Great Escape in Germany?
Was that you on the back of Steve McQueen’s motorcycle?! 😉
I told my friend who is a big UK fan that Harrow would be a problem. He could not handle criticism at N.C. State and they basically refused to play him at the end of his freshman season. Harrow is a baby and a whiner. UK isn’t the place for him. He shows no toughness or leadership. Point Guards lead the team. I thought UK looked best actually when Wiltjer was distributing the ball. Play him at point forward and UK will be alot better. Two games against Auburn and Ole Miss they went to this and worked well. I don’t know what changed?