Good Tuesday afternoon. We have quite the model battle going on between the GFS and the NAM with the Wednesday storm. The GFS has much less precipitation and is weaker with the low, while the NAM is stronger with the low and has more precipitation.

The end result…

GFS Snowfall Forecast

GFS SnowfallNAM Snowfall Forecast

NAM Snow

The NAM says we start as rain then dynamic cooling kicks in late morning into the afternoon and switches the rain over to a period of moderate to heavy snow. The weaker solution of the GFS says no dynamic cooling gets involved so it’s mainly a rain/snow mix with a period of light snow.

The truth is likely in between these two solutions, but the NAM smoked the GFS on the northeastern blizzard a few days ago. Of course… most models smoked the GFS on that storm.

On a related note… the Canadian and NOGAPS models continue to show a major winter storm around here this weekend. I guess we will see.

Updates coming later today and on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Take care.