Good Thursday and Happy Valentine’s Day. Love isn’t the only thing in the air today as the sun makes a return visit to the bluegrass state. Temps will run on the pleasant side of the thermometer as winds gust up. This is all in advance of an arctic cold front that slams in here on Friday.
That front will usher in a very wintry weekend complete with snow squalls, gusty winds and very cold temps.
I’ve been talking about the possibility of a wave of low pressure developing along this boundary. The models have been hot and cold with this possibility. The NAM is running on the hot side with the idea…
That could set us up for a round of arctic snow accumulation as we kick start the weekend. Winds will be very gusty and temps will crash late Friday afternoon and evening.
Snow showers and squalls will become common Saturday as a strong northwesterly wind continues. A couple of disturbances will dive in and give a little booster shot to the flakes. The NAM Simulated Radar shows this action kicking on early Saturday…
Some of those snow showers will be around again on Sunday. Highs this weekend will be in the 20s and lows will hit the teens. Winds will be very gusty, making it feel much colder.
After a spike in temps Monday, another storm system will bring wintry weather our way by Tuesday. That will also be followed by another surge of arctic air. The pattern over the next few weeks is one that can produce a major storm around here. I’m not saying it will… but it’s loaded.
Speaking of a big storm, check out this amazing video from the recent blizzard in Boston…
Have a sweet Valentine’s Day and take care.
Lets just hope that the Snow Dome remains in place and old man winter goes ahead and calls the season over.
It never really started…. 😉
True True we had Sprinter not winter
Wow awesome video, beautiful mountains!!!!!! How so they stand that type of weather. I wouldn’t last 5 minutes in that type of snow and winds. Now that’s what you call Brrrrrrrr.
If Arthur Miller wrote winter forecasts in Ky, it would be titled Death of a Swathman….
Great. More cold rain going to hang around the region. Loaded for winter means 40 degrees and rain in Kentucky. We are the land of in between. Can’t get warm, just cold rain that won’t leave.
Now we call our snow Arctic? Haha…that has got to be the most overused word in Kentucky forecasting.
The pattern we are in is about depressing as it gets for snow lovers the past two years. It’s pretty obvious the computer models are like the boy who cried wolf: always a major storm threat a week out and then with 24 hours or so to go, it’s an inch or less with rain mixing in or something like that. We are all to the point where it’s no longer fun to talk about possible snowstorms, as Mother Nature has numbed us all into the infamous Snow Dome!!
We surrender!
Soon Darth Bubba’s conversion of all to the Dark Side will be complete! Bow to the awesome power of The Dome! Like the Death Star, there is NO snow 🙂 😉
Well, it is more like a Fence really…… Not as dramatic as The Dome, but more geometrically relevant as far as the impact on snow.
Bow to the awesome power of The Fence!….. Nope, ain’t the same.
Killin Me!!!! LOL…..Going to have a couple more of them fence storms coming our way this week into next. We will have to see if one of these storms can surprise us.
My empathy is with CB. I think he needs Frosty the Snowman to give him a big hug. Preferably far from a green house.
The Sith ‘Snow’ Lord is victorious!!
The rise of the dark side is complete…
Too funny, BubbaG!
I keep people saying the sun is too high in the sky this time of year. If that’s the case – are you saying that we shouldn’t even consider the month of Feb winter?
reading
More of a great wall than a fence I would say… I can see an army of sun lovers / winter haters standing atop the cliffs overlooking the KY river (facing north of course) with their leaf blowers ready to fend off the approach of any winter system. (If I didn’t have to start work I would modify the famous Jack Nicholson speech in “A Few Good Men” … “deep down, in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me on that wall….”)
Game of Thrones north wall. Nah, they still got snow. Ours is far more sinister.
lol. No offense chris but the only thing “loaded” would be the person who believes there is a chance in hell that anyone in Kentucky will see a sizable snow this year. On a side note…. Happy Valentines Day to all!
Frankfort has seen two sizable snows. One 4″ or so.
Not sure why I read the blog everyday…. it’s been saying the same thing since November.
Actually since November 2011
Agreed. It’s like an addiction, isn’t it? We keep searching for the big highs again, are constantly disappointed, yet can’t stop reading….
Without Rolocoaster posts, the magic is gone 🙁
We need a forecast with some good snow so we can witness the up & down ride 🙂
Let hope it’d be a big snow storm!
And just saw the video, all I can say is holy shoot! And also, I didn’t think that bird would have been froze to death from that storm, must be an intense one.
Thanks, Chris. Don’t let the nattering nabobs of negativity get ya’ down.
I’m good with some SNOW and I’m good with Spring – let’s play two!!!
No negativity just plain facts….
Models – One/Two weeks out show big storm with heavy rain on one side of the FENCE and SNOW on the other. (Just so happens most of KY has been on that ONE “33+” side) then at three days out they start to come around to the actual happenings.
TRENDS – 15 year of them…
I am one to hype winterthe one/two week storm and will continue to do so until spring. It is still and one of these is bound to come around and give us some snow. But remember there is always NEXT WEEK and that is one more week close to SPRING….
still winter….
So the beginning of the week there were talk about a possible big storm Saturday and we get nothing then throw out at the end a chance a possible Major Storm could come around here. I see a trend here.
No read or comment on awhile. But yes trend continues,,,,,Yes, the blog has the same trends, LOOK ON THE HORIZON,,,we get there, then LOOK ON THE HORIZON. we get there , then LOOK ON THE HORIZON. we get there….Were on a tour bus and were told about all the things that the map says we may see…well we NEVER see anything….I wish the announcer with the mic would just say, ok everyone go ahead and get off the bus, this years tour has been shut down the whole winter and maybe next year it will start up again. Dont keep us on the stupid bus seeing nothing!
ARTIC!!!!! common Even if we do get what your calling for..MID 20’S ISN’T!!!! ARTIC!
It’s called weather re-branding, OK! Since not much snow, the outlook gets spiced up with the term, “arctic snow”! 😉 🙂
Well the noon news killed any chance of snow next week Monday rain and 48 tuesday rain and 39 thats for the Lex metro area
That is the catch: Our arctic temps are for the night only and are equal to actual arctic summer air 🙂
As far as rain, OF COURSE. Kentucky winter law for most mositure is 33 degrees or higher. This is as sceintifiaclly valid as ohm’s law, E=MC square, pie, quadratic equation and the 2nd law of fluid dynamics!
Heck, the Kentucky winter law may be the 1st law of fluid dynamics! 😉
Here’s another law: “i” before “e” except after “c” 🙂
Pointing out my “scientifically” misspell 🙂
NWS in Paducah mentions the gfs and euro having a storm for next Thursday. Though its outside of the long term discussion time frame, they said it was worth mentioning and would be something to watch
One week away 😉
I noticed this on the GFS also – interesting possibilities for next Thursday and Friday IF the models have this same forecast next week.
That is sad, so sad. R u really going to believe that?
What do you not understand about “next week?”
I never said they were talking about a snow storm. It simply said storm. Whether it’s severe weather or a winter storm was never mentioned. It simply said storm and they indicated it was something worth watching.
NWS out of Louisvile has interesting statement about convective snow squalls Friday for Central and east KY, would not be surprized to see WWA for tommorrow in some areas, 2 inches of snow in spots likely Friday afternoon/evening?
Winning!
Louisville got 2 inches yesterday too… it was gone 15 minutes later :/ The ground and air is just too warm.
Folks I predict we will get one really nice snow…..either next winter or the winter after! Write it down as I want full credit for making the early call! Remember who you heard it from! LOL! WW
I said the same thing before LAST winter 😉 Really.
Ima need a first call on snowfall for Friday night/Saturday pretty soon please.
please tell me you’re joking…
0-3 inches for this weekend for everybody
Thats true, NWS is saying convective showers. The lighter ones will be rain but the heavier ones will college tlthe atmosphere more and will be snow. So 0-3in is about right.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ041&warncounty=KYC067&firewxzone=KYZ041&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
0-3 is about right because more will see 0 than 3 but 3 would be the most anybody would see IMO but i’m not Mr Bailey
Cool* the*
with a nod to David Byrne and the Talking Heads:
Well we know where we’re goin’
but we don’t know where we’ve been
and we know what we’re knowin’
but we can’t say what we’ve seen
and we’re not little children
and we know what we want
and the future is certain
give us time to work it out(….winter weatherwise, that is!)
We’re on a road to nowhere
Come on inside
Takin’ that ride to nowhere
We’ll take that ride (after all–wht choice do we have?!)
Oh, if it isn’t going to snow why not have days like this and last Thursday? Absolutely spectacular weather. 55 and sunny in Lawrenceburg, and for ONCE I am glad temps have busted on the high side (NWS had 51 for today).
I can get used to this kind of winter weather (the kind we have had the past two years) if our snow totals are going to be meager. Especially, with that nice 5 inch snow last March.
It does help with the heating bills, ready for winter go big or go away !
Ended up with around 8″ yesterday, made for some gorgeous pictures this morning.
Does it snow their in June?
Does a bear Sh!t in the woods? but no, late as i’ve seen snow is May 23rd.
This is from the NWS Forecast Discussion issed at 3:41 today. Next week could be interesting and will bear watching that is for sure. WW
Discussion
The end of the forecast period continues to look rather interesting
as the majority of the long term model guidance continues to show a
very amplified pattern across North America. For the last several
days, the models have shown that the Monday night/Tuesday system
will move off to the northeast and stall out over southeast Canada
near 50N/50W. With this feature there and substantial ridging
develop to the north and west of it, it appears that we would have
rather strong blocking pattern over the NW Atlantic. The models
then bring a developing trough out from the western US and into the
Plains states. How far north this system pulls poleward will be
entirely dependent if the upper low remains over southeast Canada.
Currently the GFS and Euro both take this Plains low and move it
towards Chicago. Based on the upper level pattern, this does not
look realistic, especially at the 500 hPa level with two upper level
lows being that close together. Two scenarios will be possible for
late next week.
In the first one, the SE Canada upper low remains in place and keeps
the blocking strong. This would result in the upper low across the
Plains moving more eastward across the lower-mid Ohio Valley and
developing a large east coast storm by next weekend. This would
bring a threat of wintry weather to portions of the Ohio Valley
depending on how much cold air can get in here and an outbreak of
severe weather across the deep south states.
The second scenario would be if the SE Canada upper low moves on off
and into the north Atlantic resulting in less blocking. This would
allow the current solutions to take place of pulling the upper low
poleward and bringing warmer conditions to the Ohio Valley and
creating more of a widespread severe weather threat from the deep
south into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Nonetheless, we
have several days to watch the system develop and adjust the
forecasts as required.
Thank you Winter Warlock. Sure wish there were more objective posts (and discussions) such as this one in this section.
How much more objective can you get that every “next week” outlook has failed for the past two years. From a linear trend standpoint, can not get much more objective than that.
By objective, I mean let’s discuss forecast data which is on the table and if it’s a bust, discuss why, again using data. By subjective, I mean cut the comments which add nothing but negativity to the discussion. If I were in Chris’ position, I couldn’t take the criticism and would not continue to waste my time for a bunch of unappreciative (insert swear words) for very long. Meteorology is a prediction, not a production.
100% agree
If you want what you deem ‘objective’ -go to the forecast discussions on the Jackson/Louisville NOAA site..it’s at the bottom of the page with many other topics…straight from the horses mouths and that should be more satisfactory to your needs.
Nobody is being critical as much as letting some objective frustration from lack of snow and poor model outlook accuracy in a subjective manner… Oops, I guess you are right 🙂
You guys are an intelligent bunch and all I’m saying is that surely you can contribute more than criticism, whining and sarcasm. With the information we get from Chris AND other professional weather services, meteorology schools at colleges, long-term weather experts, severe weather experts, NASA, meteorology books,etc., there is a whole lot available besides what the NWS mets. provide. We really have something special with Chris and this blog – be grateful. I challenge you guys to step up your game. I’ll be contributing more as soon as I muddle through my big A$$ meteorology textbook. I just finished the first chapter. . .
The only thing linear is the same old boring replies about no snow. We get it.
Ol uncle si been working outside today and its been nice. Hey got my lettuce beds all ready, cleaned all the dead limbs from around the big pond ….. Smelling spring in the air If it was just a couple deg warmer I would have been out knocking golf balls around jack. Noticed no snow mentioned for Sat now ….. Did it just fizzle away? Crazy!
didn’t watch the 4 o’clock weather did ya
These models r all horrendous. It’s hard to imagine with all if today’s technology that this is what we have. These things are horrible unless u r within 24 hours of the event.
They have not even been good 24 hours out. About 50 percent based on snow map results.
Sadly that is true. Basically don’t know what’s going to happen until it approaches on the radar.
Where this thure snow I Ben looking out thurw windew tryin to find me some snowe.Yall done said was goins to snow: what happin.
Junior
Do you know ROLO?
Rolo’s goat may have become self-aware 🙂
The then to 2001 Space Odyssey playing in the background with each strike if the keyboard.
theme
🙂
As of right now I’d be more concerned for severe weather towards the end of next week rather than snow. Things will change of course in a weeks time but looking over some of the models severe weather is certainly possible.
I noticed this chance of severe wx next week as well. Even though I don’t care for snow and even though I like the dynamics of severe wx, this is a time in which I would not mind the snow considering my area (Nashville) has only recorded an inch even of the white stuff. Of course, nobody wants threats to lives and property from severe wx, but looks like somewhere likely will get the severe wx next week. Either the deep south gets severe wx and we get snow, or we also could get severe wx.
We are just two weeks and two days from the first anniversary of the March 2 2012 outbreak that included the West Liberty KY, Saylorsville KY and Henryville IN tornadoes.
Could you imagine at this moment in time if John Belski was holding his guess the snow accumulation contest for a snow event. The participants would be guessing a quarter of an inch or less. An inch would be on the high side
1 inch or more EPIC
Junior ahgain anywon no if its goin tuh snowe twomorow? I caint find out anywhures
Thanks for help,
Junior
With the BFE reference, what part of Egypt are you from?
Cairo, you?
I live right near Cairo….called NoSnow, Egypt… 🙂
Check out the dramatic titles of the last 5 posts here on Ky-Nether Center…..arctic this, wintry that, Nam vs. GFS, Winter Weather Advisory…..Yada, Yada, Yada….blah, blah,blah….we’ve been there, but haven’t done that….Yawn…
What’s on your blog?
It is a weather blog and it is winter. What do you expect,recipes and hockey scores?
Louisville won. Russ Smith showed up and played well tonight. Why we were playing St.John’s during rivalry week? I have no idea. Marquette or Cincinatti are our rivals. ESPN is a joke.