Good Sunday, gang. Our weather pattern continue to evolve toward one that will look and feel much more like it should for the second half of August. An increase in temps and humidity levels will lead to a daily threat for showers and storms over the next week.

Temps today will range from the upper 70s to low 80s across the entire region as the muggy factor comes up. Showers and storms will blossom during the afternoon and evening hours and these will have the potential to put down a lot of water in a short amount of time. Here’s regional radar…

The week ahead setup will feature warm and muggy air with scattered storms going up each and every afternoon. While this is a very warm period, the models keep the core of the heat well to our west…

GFS

I still like my forecast for a run at 90 degrees before the month is over.

Let’s take a look a little deeper into the month. The 12z run of the GFS from Saturday had some interesting analog years for the last of this month. The computers look for years during this general time frame that featured a similar pattern as the one being forecast. You can see these years, months and dates on the bottom right of this map…

GFS 41967 is on there 3 different times and that year featured 30s in September. So did 1966 and 1993. If you are a fan of cold and snow, 1976, 1993 and 2009 jump out at you. That certainly does not mean the rest of the year will play out exactly how those did, but it’s interesting to see a similar pattern being forecast as we get closet to early fall.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.