Good Thursday everyone. It’s day three of the major fall storm that continues to pound much of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This thing continues to produce rain, gusty winds and cold temps across the bluegrass state. We will have the tracking toys and a peek into next week coming your way in a bit.
Before we talk a little about what’s going on right now… let’s talk about some notable records about to bite the dust. Covington is ready to crown 2011 as the wettest year on record.. and there are still 2 months and change to go! Ashland is already into the top 10 wettest years ever and Louisville and Lexington should crack the top 10 before the year is out.
I have been talking a lot about the past years(analogs) i’ve been looking at in helping to shape my fall and winter thoughts. One year has been standing out from the rest and that same year shows up as one of the wettest years on record for each of the cities I mentioned above. I already had it at the head of the class and I may go ahead and make it the teacher at this point. It is a VERY strong analog for this fall and winter! Can any of you guess which year i’m talking about?
Back to the storm of today…
– Winds are going to be a big time player with gusts of 30-40mph at times… especially north.
– Widespread showers will continue and a touch of sleet can’t be ruled out for some. The higher elevations of southeastern Ky will likely pick up some wet snow out of this.
– Temps today will stay in the low and mid 40s for highs for much of central and eastern Kentucky. The west will see balmy temps near 50.
– A leftover shower is possible across the east on Friday as a drying trend sets in from the west. Highs should hit 50 in the east and mid 50s west.
– Frost and freeze threat for Saturday and Sunday mornings. Lows of 32 or below will be possible for some areas. Outside of that… the weather looks good.
Track today’s nasty stuff…
Current Temps
Winds
Today’s Rainfall
Looking farther down the road… the active pattern continues into next week. There will be a weak system moving in from the northwest Sunday night and Monday and may produce a few showers.
Tuesday looks mild to warm with readings heading toward the 70s and mainly sunny skies. It is around this time we start to see another surge of cold air moving into the plains states and this is likely the beginning of another winter looking setup for the second half of the week.
The air with this next surge should be colder than what we are dealing with now and that may up the chances for some fun and games. The GFS has been advertising this cold shot for a while now…
The Canadian Model has now come aboard with an even colder looking trough…
Both indicate some kind of storm forming along the east coast with the Canadian developing some fantasy tropical system. We need to really watch this pattern for the end of next week as it has some potential for so early in the season.
I will have updates as needed. Have a great Thursday and take care.
Select Page
As bad as our lawn looks…I’m doubting the wettest year. We’ve had a rain dome over us…have actually seen the rain split and go around us on radar.
Wind is howling outside. (south eastern Jefferson county)
Looking at the wettest years and corresponding bad winters, it appears you may be thinking of 1950-1951. Louisville had 34 inches of snow and Lexington had 41.
Everyone has guessed for the past three weeks the analog he is talking about, it ceases to be funny anymore, like it is some secret, enough already get on with it just say the year
How about 1993 as the closest analog year? IF that IS the year, then I certainly remember the winter season of 93-94. Jan 17, 1994: nearly 2 feet of snow here in Mason Co, followed by
-25 degrees. I think both are records for this area.
I enjoy the guessing part! I’ve put google to good use the past few weeks. With each new bit of info you get you can see if it matches up with the year that you are thinking.
You do know what happened in the Winter of 50-51, right? One of the most catestrophic ice storms Kentucky has ever seen. Actually, it was an ice/snow/horrible cold storm that was somewhat prolonged to boot. Wicked stuff. I did a write up for the KY Climate Center about it.
1950 was my guess the other day because of the Thanksgiving comment. I had been considering 1993 as the possibility, but I am now sticking with 1950 due to the fact that 1950 is one of the top 10 wettest years for Lexington and 1993 is not.
Your talking about what happening in 31 January and 1-2 February. That was a catastrophic storm for not just KY but many places…
I know in my hometown (Madisonville) it was -27 on 1 Feb 1951 after the ice storm!
I’ll guess 1978 because of the great Blizzard,then was followed by record rainfall amount’s the same year…
Love this site! Way to go Chris , my guess is 1993
Upon researching the worst winters, I found this: http://www.epicdisasters.com/index.php/site/comments/the_worst_us_winter_storms/ 🙂
As long as that means snow, not ice… I’m cool with whatever year it turns out to be. :o)
Gotta be 2004..Holds the record for rainfall in louisville and second for lexington…Then was followed by the christmas eve Blizzard…Sure hope to see another one like this in my lifetime…
If I remember correctly this was a western KY storm, Frankfort west. Lexington didn’t receive much, I could be wrong with this but thats how I remeber it, watch the radar all day and the snow line was just west of us.
2004 is a pretty good guess. A true analog year, though, would also take into consideration the ENSO warm or cold phase.
Right now, forecasts are for a ENSO cold phase (La Nina)
I believe 2004 was an ENSO warm phase.
The only one I can come up with other than 2004 would be 1950, which did correspond with an ENSO cold phase.
the december 2004 storm was 10-24 inches for western and northern ky. the area hardest hit was north of louisville but south of indianapolis where 30somthing inches fell. lexington got a HUGE shaft on that storm, a low track 80 miles south and east and it would have probably set the alltime snowfall record for central parts of ky. since this nky has seen several major snows.