Good Wednesday to one and all. We have one heck of a fall storm in progress across the state and this bad boy is just getting started. We have the blog ready to track the changing conditions out there today. I also take a little sneak peek into the next possible fun storm on the horizon.
This storm has been fairly well behaved since we started tracking it more than a week ago. The setup is one that has a winter look to it as one storm digs in across the eastern Ohio Valley and captures another storm working up the east coast.
Here is what it means…
– Rain will be heavy at times today into tonight. Some areas will pick up more than one inch of water through Thursday.
– Winds today through Thursday will crank up with gusts of 40-45mph possible… especially later tonight and early Thursday. This may cause some issues with power.
– Temps today will stay in the 40s for many areas. The east my wake up to some 50s before crashing during the mid morning.
– Showers will continue into Thursday. With a low freezing level… some sleet may mix in at times. The higher elevations of southeastern Kentucky may pick up some wet snow out of this.
– Clouds will decrease Friday and this should set us up for frost and freezing conditions by Saturday morning.
Let’s track the wild weather…
Current Temps
Looking a little farther down the road, we find the active pattern continuing into next week. A weak system will dive in from the northwest Sunday night and Monday and may touch off a shower or two.
The models have been jumping all over another big surge of cold air for the middle and end of next week and several of them try to blow up a big storm again. Here is one of the latest runs of the GFS…
That is about as extreme as you can possibly get for this time of year. I’m not saying it’s even remotely right… but using it to illustrate just how wild this pattern really is. There is some potential for some fun late next week. 
Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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-10c to knoxville tn and the 32 line in florida! if that run is even close to right how rare would that be for late october?
When do you think central Kentucky will get our first big frost/freeze?
Thanks, Chris for all you do for this blog. I read nearly every day, but post very seldom. Looking forward to the Winter chats.
Where’s the like button??? LOL! Me too Kathy C.
Is this wild wind going to be out of the south? If so, the leaves will blow away from our house, which is good. Our burr oak tree is dumping its leaves a couple weeks early this year.
WOW! thats crazy next week should be fun to watch
The Model runs did change that storm next week but still shows it switching to snow at the end! but you know, it will be another year of the model flip flops!!!
good afternoon from the town of wayne, wva. it is 12noon and the plume of moisture in eky and wva extends all the way down through georgia and is only moving south to north and very little eastward movement. so far around 1.5 inches of water in my rain gauge since last night and still raining light to moderately as it has been doing all day. currently the temp is in the mid 50s and i do not see it getting much higher at all today. thanks for your time.
From another Met at a different weather blog about the models this time of year..
the Euro and GFS have big differences for the next front. GFS puts the front in the east again, but ECMWF has it out west, with a cutoff. Usually thats one of its biases, but the 6zGFS trended that way a little. We are in the time frame now with such a long, zonal flow that the models could swing wildly from one run to the next, because the wavelength will snap at some point, like a rubber band but its hard to predict where. One run may have a huge trough in the west at day 7, and the next run may have a ridge there, so we’re entering a volatile pattern.
Some places in Kentucky might be pushing 80 degrees by Tuesday. 🙂 That’s what I like to see in the modeling….transient cold shots that don’t stick around are ok with me.
pretty cool watching the low deppen and the pool of mositure just rolling in SE KY training over same place. look at how the radar is like a water hose. cool stuff.
We are thinking along the same lines, WXman! I like the sound of 80 and sunny! :))))
A very good read for Winter 2011-2012 over at WeatherNation TV you can follow them at http://www.facebook.com/weathernation
http://weathernationheadlines.blogspot.com/2011/10/october-19-winter-preview-texas-haboobs.html
Winter Weather Advisory out for tonight?? Is this for real? WYMT has it on their website.
Bring on the Snow!!!!!!!!
Stephanie, I believe what you’re seeing is a ‘Freeze Watch’ if you’re referring to the blue zone in western Tennessee.
No! Unfortunatley it’s fraudulent!