Good Saturday everyone and welcome to the weekend. The weather around here for this weekend is looking great and I would advise getting outside and taking full advantage of it as things will be changing very soon. The weather as we head into Thanksgiving week will take a little walk on the wild side across much of the country and that includes our little slice of heaven known as Kentucky.

Let’s start with today and work forward.

Temps today into Sunday will generally run in the 60s across the entire region under partly sunny skies. Winds will be a little breezy both days, but this looks like a great few days.

Monday looks equally as nice as some clouds increase later in the day. Winds will really crank up from the southwest as temps return to the 60s once again. It is once into Monday night and Tuesday we see things really begin to change as our first wave of rain moves in. This happens as a wave of low pressure works across the plains states and drags a boundary our way. This will interact with moisture surging northward from the western Gulf of Mexico and should give us a nice drink of water during the day.

It is at this point I have to separate the things I think I know from what I don’t think I think know.

What I think I know…

-Another surge of rain will move in from Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Rain totals from Tuesday through Turkey Day can run in the 1″-3″ range…

GFS Rainfall Forecast Map


– The cold is coming!

– A strong cold front will blast through here Thanksgiving Day or Night. Temps by Friday will stay in the lower 30s for highs.

– Some flakes should fly at some point later Thanksgiving or Friday.

– This will be a very windy period from Tuesday through Friday.

What I don’t think I think I know…

– The timing of the arrival of the cold air. It is likely at some point Thanksgiving day or night.

– How strong is the storm across the Midwest into the Great Lakes?

– Can we get another wave of low pressure to develop along this front late Thanksgiving into Friday as it settles into the Tennessee Valley? If so… can this bring a swath of snow to parts of our region?

The later option is one that is beginning to show up more and more on some of the computer model output and has my attention right now. Take a look at why…

GFS Ensembles


Canadian Model



UKMET Thanksgiving Evening


This is going to make for some fun tracking in the coming days as we have a lot of options on the table for the week ahead and the blog will be updating you every step of the way. Keep checking back for updates and I may even have a special live blog Sunday evening so you guys can throw some questions my way.

Updates as needed… have a great Saturday and take care.