Daily Archives: November 26, 2011

Good Saturday afternoon everyone. The gorgeous weather we have out there today is about to go away in a big, big way. A major storm will slowly work across Kentucky over the next several days and this will result in heavy rain and possible flooding before a switch to some snow to wrap things up.

Take a look at the rain numbers i’m expecting…



Rivers are already running high and our ground is wet from recent rains and one of the wettest years on record. Flash flooding and river flooding is a possibility over the next several days.

What about the wintry aspect of this storm? The snow is going to fall right underneath the closed upper low. This should start out with snow across parts of the the deep south with flakes flying all the way into parts of Mississippi. This cold pool of air that is the upper low will then work northeastward across Kentucky Monday night into Tuesday. This will bring a mix and change to snow from southwest to northeast across the state as the upper low passes.

A shot of cooler air will dive in on the backside of the low as it is to our northeast and this shows up well on the GFS Ensembles…



That would keep some light snow or flurries around Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The NAM Model only goes through Tuesday evening, but is showing a Tennessee Valley smackdown of snow..



Yea… that’s kinda doubtful to happen. haha

The GFS shows areas across the west and south to have the best chance at putting some snow on the ground…



This storm is the start of a cold and active pattern through the first few weeks of December. The models are all on board with this pattern and the ensembles average is VERY cold as we up the ante for some arctic air getting involved early in the season.

More updates as needed. Have a wonderful rest of your Saturday and take care.

Good Saturday everyone and thanks for making us one of your stops for weather. We continue to follow the progress of a slow moving and massive storm system impacting the area over the next several days. This bad boy is likely to bring something for everyone before it wraps up by the middle of the week.

The deeper and slower moving models are winning the blinking battle and this means we have a big time precipitation maker on the way.

A huge dip in the jet stream is working into the Mississippi Valley today and will put the brakes on as it moves our way. There is a ton of energy that is forecast to cutoff across the Tennessee Valley by late Sunday into Monday. This will open the floodgates to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with heavy rain increasing tonight into Sunday.

The GFS shows the cutoff well… but may be a tad too quick with ejecting it northeastward through the Ohio Valley…



There will be some very cold air right under the core of that upper level low and that is where we will see rain changing to snow. Whenever that core passes over your head… chances are you will see the rain switch to a period of snow. When that happens is open for discussion and I think the GFS may be a bit too fast with the low.

Some thoughts…

- Heavy rain will work across western Kentucky later today and work eastward overnight. Temps ahead of the rain will warm into the 60s with a gusty southwest wind.

- Heavy rain will be likely from Sunday into Monday, at least. Rain totals of 1″-2″ with locally higher amounts will be possible.

- Depending on exactly when the upper level low moves in… there can be a switch to snow across the west and south later Monday.  That switch would then work northeast with the upper low. Again… I can’t tell you exactly when this happens where you live. This is what the GFS “thinks” will happen…



- The slower this low is… the greater the chance for high water concerns.

- Winds will be gusty through mid week.

- Temps next week will be colder than normal with another system working in by the end of the week into next weekend.

As you would expect… I will have many more updates today and through the weekend. Have a wonderful Saturday and take care.