Good Saturday afternoon everyone. The gorgeous weather we have out there today is about to go away in a big, big way. A major storm will slowly work across Kentucky over the next several days and this will result in heavy rain and possible flooding before a switch to some snow to wrap things up.
Take a look at the rain numbers i’m expecting…
Rivers are already running high and our ground is wet from recent rains and one of the wettest years on record. Flash flooding and river flooding is a possibility over the next several days.
What about the wintry aspect of this storm? The snow is going to fall right underneath the closed upper low. This should start out with snow across parts of the the deep south with flakes flying all the way into parts of Mississippi. This cold pool of air that is the upper low will then work northeastward across Kentucky Monday night into Tuesday. This will bring a mix and change to snow from southwest to northeast across the state as the upper low passes.
A shot of cooler air will dive in on the backside of the low as it is to our northeast and this shows up well on the GFS Ensembles…
That would keep some light snow or flurries around Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
The NAM Model only goes through Tuesday evening, but is showing a Tennessee Valley smackdown of snow..
Yea… that’s kinda doubtful to happen. haha
The GFS shows areas across the west and south to have the best chance at putting some snow on the ground…
This storm is the start of a cold and active pattern through the first few weeks of December. The models are all on board with this pattern and the ensembles average is VERY cold as we up the ante for some arctic air getting involved early in the season.
More updates as needed. Have a wonderful rest of your Saturday and take care.
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NOT the snowfall maps we want to start out with this season…my,my, the snowdome already wanting to rear its ugly head…now would’nt that be something, 6+” of snow for west Tn. and northern Mississippi!!! before I even see the first flake fly here is se.ky!!..:(
Oh well Might as well get the Ole trusty ARK outta winter storage…
Thanks for the update Chris. Hopefully we will see some flakes flying here in Owensboro, but I sure do dread the rain. It’s been so wet here lately and it has just dried out from the last rain storm that moved through.
LOL…its kind of funny when i first pulled up the new post, just for a SPLIT SECOND I thought for sure that rainfall map was a snowfall map!!!
That’s the problem. Plenty of moisture now but when it gets cold, no moisture to be found. That’s been the story in central ky for the past however many years I’ve been following the blog. It’s going to be another long season of near misses.
What a let down 🙁
guys it same pattern we had fore 17 years now, HEVY RAIN snow at end and everynow thn we get 2 or 3 inches, no doubt in my mind we get couple slushy inches in SE KY at end of this. but as far as big one later on this WINTER IT AINT HAPPENING.
one day the pattrn will change gback to old school winters but that might be a century from now if ever. back in the 80s it was OLD SCHOOL ever winter, big asnows with 10 below zero afterwards and no school for months.
Hey MikeM!! I do think this winter will be the winter for “the big one”! The pattern for the last few months have shown the moisture (and lots of it) moving right through this part of the state. It comes every three or four days apart so one of those systems will have to hit cold air here sooner or later and WA-LA our snow!! I’m really, really feelin’ in it this year!!
Do you guys realize you are complaining about never having snow when many cities had their back to back snowiest and coldest winters since the 1970s?
Your memories are lying to you! 😉 The past few winters have been very snowy across Kentucky.
Yea, the past couple of winters has had more snow then the last several years. Would be nice to see a couple of 1 foot old schoolers across the entire state. Now that would make snow lovers happy 🙂
It is what it is, we will get something on the ground out of this system. Even if just a mere coating. 🙁 Lol. Everyone is so depressing today!
lex was 10th snowiest ever last winter i do believe, if not 10 somewhere very close to there
Louisville rain totals expected to reach nearly 3″ with this long-lasting event.
In addition to closing in on the wettest all-time annual record (should be just shy of 63″ after this event, good enough for a high 3 ranking), November will rank among the top ten wettest of all time.
Also, this will mark the 4th time this year that Louisville has recorded a top ten wettest month of all time (April, June, September, November?)
The problem is that those snows have been nickle and dime snows. The deepest snow that I’ve recorded in the past few seasons (if memory serves me, should look this up) is only 6 inches. We have not seen anything remotely close to the monster 12-20 inch snowstorms that we remember as kids, therefore all the nickle and dime snows don’t seem like much to us. We’re jaded. 😉
You guys are killing me. IT’S NOVEMBER 26TH!! The leftover turkey’s still in the fridge. Of COURSE it’s gonna rain. That’s what happens in November. Winter hasn’t even started yet.
Hi to you Patty. I hope your right about the big one. I look forward to winter as much as anyone. I hate to see the models flip from big snow to cold rain. Even though it’s only November, my fear is the moisture train of this year dries up when it gets cold. remember the saying for Central Ky. 33 degrees = rain and 32 degrees = dry.
Sorry if this is a dumb question or has already been answered, but has Mr. Bailey put out his winter forecast? If he hasnt when does he usually issue it? Thanks.
Nickel and dime snows is right. And the next day it would be gone. I want the big ones, old school as Rolo calls it.
http://www.weather.blogky.com. Someone posted the link earlier.
Actually it is http://www.weather.bloginky.com
THANK YOU
LOL MikeM!! I remember that old sayin’!! Did you catch Chris’ winter forcast? Here’s the link.
http://weather.bloginky.com/
Thank you.
Similar makeup to the OCT snow event we had here with dynamics causing a change from rain to snow. NAM preformed far better with the overall temp and changeover times with that event.
Hi Guys Tim send me some big old school snow as Rolo says.Don’t short your self lol.
Told it, Eastern Ky and Southeastern will not be getting any snow this winter.