Daily Archives: April 4, 2018

Time posted: 7:37 pm

Winter Storm Threat Friday Night and Saturday Morning

Good evening, everyone. I went ahead and put out a Winter Storm THREAT on WKYT earlier today because… Well… Why not? This threat is for Friday night and Saturday morning, with the potential for a swath of several inches of snow.

I will get to that in a moment, but first we have a few rain and snow showers that may graze the north and northeast this evening…

A hard freeze is on the way tonight with readings in the 20s.

After some decent weather from Thursday into the first half of Friday,

things begin to change late Friday as a storm system rolls our way. Heavy rains will increase quickly, then we will see much of that going over to snow Friday night and early Saturday.

Here’s my first “odds” map for the Winter Storm THREAT…

Obviously, the track of the low will have the main say in where the heavy snow band sets up. The risk areas can go a little north or south as we get closer.

The WPC has a similar through process, but is a littler broader with the potential for 4″+ snows…

The European Model has a major hit…

So does the NAM…

The GFS is similar…

Temps by Sunday morning may reach the teens for areas that may have snow on the ground.

For some perspective on how extreme this potential is, let’s use Lexington as the focal point. It will only take 1″ of snow to be a top 10 snowiest April on record and 2.9″ to crack the top 5. The top spot belongs to 1987 with 5.9″. That was from a storm that dumped 30″ in the mountains of eastern Kentucky.

For temps, Lexington has only reached the teens on 3 days and 2 of those were from April, 1875, when record keeping was a little sketchy.

Sigh. #temspring continues to be a downer.

I will update things later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:25 pm

Updating The Return of Winter

Good afternoon, everyone. Old Man Winter is back in the bluegrass state, with a cold wind blowing out there today. This wind has even been touching off a few snow flurries, but the main focus of his assault on spring comes Friday night into early Saturday. That’s when a developing winter storm may target much of Kentucky.

In the short-term, track a few rain and snow showers toward northern Kentucky…

A hard freeze is on the way tonight with temps dropping into the 20s. The numbers rebound into the 50s by Thursday afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be a little gusty, but it looks pretty good for most.

Friday kicks off a very interesting few days of weather as a developing winter storm rolls in from the west. Temps on Friday may spike to near 60 ahead of the system, with rain rolling in during the evening. The track of this storm is across the Tennessee Valley, allowing very cold air to move in Friday night and Saturday. Temps may drop into the 20s for many Friday night, with heavy rain and heavy snow showing up. That would continue into Saturday morning before tapering off during the afternoon.

Here’s the GFS…

Here’s the snow and sleet accumulation from that run…

The NAM is similar…

The snow and sleet with that run…

As you can see, both models are pretty enthusiastic about the potential for a rather historic April winter storm across much of the region.

The average of the 21 runs from the GFS Ensembles have a healthy snow signal…

Some thoughts:

  • The overall pattern is conducive to a lower Ohio Valley Winter storm.
  • That said, the track of the low will determine where the heavy snow swath sets up. Could go a little north or south of what the current model consensus shows.
  • Several inches of wet, slushy snow will be possible wherever the swath sets up. Tree issues would develop within that region.
  • The cold is impressive with temps in the 20s early Saturday and possibly staying in the 30s for highs. There’s an outside chance for teens to show up Saturday night, if there is snow on the ground.
  • South of the snow swath will be an area of heavy rain. 1″-2″ of rain will be possible, leading to another flood threat.
  • There’s a second storm system that can bring winter weather our way by early next week.
  • NONE OF THIS IS SET IN STONE. There is still enough time for some hefty changes to show up, but there has been very little waffling among the models.

I will have an update on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm, so tune in. I will also update things on KWC later this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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