Updating The Return of Winter

Good afternoon, everyone. Old Man Winter is back in the bluegrass state, with a cold wind blowing out there today. This wind has even been touching off a few snow flurries, but the main focus of his assault on spring comes Friday night into early Saturday. That’s when a developing winter storm may target much of Kentucky.

In the short-term, track a few rain and snow showers toward northern Kentucky…

A hard freeze is on the way tonight with temps dropping into the 20s. The numbers rebound into the 50s by Thursday afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be a little gusty, but it looks pretty good for most.

Friday kicks off a very interesting few days of weather as a developing winter storm rolls in from the west. Temps on Friday may spike to near 60 ahead of the system, with rain rolling in during the evening. The track of this storm is across the Tennessee Valley, allowing very cold air to move in Friday night and Saturday. Temps may drop into the 20s for many Friday night, with heavy rain and heavy snow showing up. That would continue into Saturday morning before tapering off during the afternoon.

Here’s the GFS…

Here’s the snow and sleet accumulation from that run…

The NAM is similar…

The snow and sleet with that run…

As you can see, both models are pretty enthusiastic about the potential for a rather historic April winter storm across much of the region.

The average of the 21 runs from the GFS Ensembles have a healthy snow signal…

Some thoughts:

  • The overall pattern is conducive to a lower Ohio Valley Winter storm.
  • That said, the track of the low will determine where the heavy snow swath sets up. Could go a little north or south of what the current model consensus shows.
  • Several inches of wet, slushy snow will be possible wherever the swath sets up. Tree issues would develop within that region.
  • The cold is impressive with temps in the 20s early Saturday and possibly staying in the 30s for highs. There’s an outside chance for teens to show up Saturday night, if there is snow on the ground.
  • South of the snow swath will be an area of heavy rain. 1″-2″ of rain will be possible, leading to another flood threat.
  • There’s a second storm system that can bring winter weather our way by early next week.
  • NONE OF THIS IS SET IN STONE. There is still enough time for some hefty changes to show up, but there has been very little waffling among the models.

I will have an update on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm, so tune in. I will also update things on KWC later this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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43 Responses to Updating The Return of Winter

  1. Terry says:

    With little model ‘waffling’, I guess we need to stock up on bread, milk, eggs and SYRUP☺….lol. Obviously stocking up on food would be foolish for an event like this since roads would be slick less than a day and power outages possible, but we all know some out there will!

    • Jimbo says:

      I think Bubba just noted the model shift beginning to the North and East. I suspect by Friday this will be an I70 snow and not an I64 one.

      • BubbaG says:

        Surprised CB has not mentioned this apparent shift.

        • AC says:

          Bubba during the last storm that dumped over 8 inches over most of the area, you were hollering no snow right up until there was three inches piled up in your yard. If you can wish it away, more power to you. Just don’t be unrealistic.

  2. Troy says:

    This is depressing and disgusting as well…

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. If this were January, I’d be really excited. But since it is April, and time for warmer weather, I’m not. I really wish winter would decide to rest for a while (7-8 months) and then come at us with a good snow storm. Ah well I’ve always heard that Mother Nature can be fickle… have a good afternoon everyone. #teamspring

  4. Dawnp007 says:

    In this late of the game, I do hope we see a big snow. If it’s going to snow, LET IT SNOW and be a BIG ONE!

    • Terry says:

      I agree, except I don’t want to see widespread power outages and tree/plant damage. I might be wrong but for some reason feel like SE KY might finally get in the snow zone on this one!

  5. LOUTeach says:

    If this was January or even February I would be really excited! But at this point in the game I have to say I’m ready for pedicures, and flip-flops. Definitely on the side of #TeamSpring!

  6. JimCVG says:

    Thanks for the update, Chris. Mother Nature has gone insane.

  7. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger says this is simply incredible in early April! Bring it on! Rodger in Dodger!

  8. Prelude says:

    This is old man winter saying to all the nay sayers that insisted on pulling the plug on Winter in the months of December January and February to shove it!! You guys know who you are

    • Jimbo says:

      In my area, I pulled the plug in mid January. And so far, I have not been proven wrong, I have received less than 2 inches of snow since then. I know the majority of commenters have done quite well with snow in March. My area has been colder but it has been virtually an island in a sea of snow surrounding me.

  9. BubbaG says:

    Looks like the models are already shifting more east and north. Previous runs had most of Kentucky with heavier snow. Now they do not. Hopefully this trend continues.

  10. Kim Curtsinger says:

    Someone please tell Ole Man Winter to ease up. He goes AWOL all winter then shows up in March & April

  11. Allen says:

    I’m working parking lot security Fri and Sat mornings at Keeneland. Not looking forward to being out there in freezing temps and several inches of snow but it would be pretty, I’m sure.

    • Stormtracker_WV says:

      Here’s a dumb question Allen, but–do they race horses in spring snow like this? I honestly never thought of that, but it surely would be beautiful.

  12. Virgil says:

    Yeah, Im going to be looking for work in South Carolina close to the shore and on south… This Kentucky weather is just pure asinine.

  13. Troy says:

    Good news is (if you bought into the NAM to start with), 18Z NAM moved this mess a good ways northeast….

    • BubbaG says:

      It started that shift earlier today. Will be surprised if CB sticks to the storm threat, unless another one of them there “regional” impacts with not too much of KY impacted.

  14. Lotsasnow says:

    All models have shifted significantly north and trends will continue north

  15. Doc says:

    WPC update at 5:36 edt still shows reasonable chances of snow in ky.

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