Daily Archives: March 2, 2019

Time posted: 8:08 pm

Winter Weather Advisory

Good evening, folks. A Winter Weather Advisory is now out for the northern parts of the bluegrass state, but doesn’t really match up with any trends from the past few days. Those trends continue with the late day forecast models, too.

Here’s the Winter Weather Advisory…

Three days ago, that would have been a good placement. Right now, it needs to include many more counties to the south of that, especially across the eastern half of the state into West Virginia.

The late day models have my back…

NAM only through 7pm Sunday

Hi Res NAM

Short Range Canadian

New version of the GFS

The regular version of the GFS continues to be the odd man out and maybe that’s the model of choice, but even that is farther south across eastern Kentucky…

A few notes…

  • A band of light rain and light snow moves in overnight and can put down some light accumulations in the north.
  • The main batch of precipitation moves in later Sunday into Sunday evening. The greatest concentration is across the east and southeast during the later part of the day.
  • For areas getting snow, it’s a wet brand of snow that shouldn’t have much of an impact on roads during the daylight hours. Slick spots develop Sunday evening into early Monday as temps crash.

Lows by Monday morning are deep into the teens…

Single digit wind chills show up across the west and central parts of the state.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:17 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to watch a developing storm system set to bring snow to the region on Sunday. In the overall scheme of things, my thoughts have not changed since the last update. I don’t know if that’s good or bad. 🙂

I’m still rolling with this…

Again, tomorrow’s system is going to have to fight off thunderstorms across the deep south. Those storms will interrupt the moisture supply into Kentucky, which is partially why you’re seeing the numbers higher to the west and east of us. Even across the state, holes of “not much” will show up.

The midday computer model runs find the European closest to my ideas…

The Canadian is in the same ballpark…

The new version of the GFS continues to be the most amped up, but is farther south…

The GFS isn’t even close to being as juicy as the above models…

The WPC has just about the entire state in the slight risk of seeing 4″ snows…

The best chance for slick travel comes after dark Sunday and into Sunday night. That’s when temps tank into the teens and low 20s.

Expect advisories to go up soon…

Frigid temps will be noted for the week ahead, with another system possibly bringing winter weather back into the region by the end of the week. That would be followed by another system and cold shot next weekend…

Canadian

New GFS

I’ll be back with another update later this evening. Make it a good one and think #teamspring! 🙂

Take care.

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Time posted: 1:39 am

Breaking Down The Sunday System

Good Saturday, folks. Our low-end Winter Storm THREAT for Sunday continues across parts of the bluegrass state. This is for possibility of a narrow stripe of snows that can reach  4″ in a few spots. Frigid temps will then follow this system into the first full week of March.

Here are some random musings about this setup:

  • The track of this system is pretty much set and it will be fairly far south of the bluegrass state.
  • Our storm isn’t the strongest in the world and will be moving at a pretty good clip.
  • To the south of this low, severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the deep south. Those storms can disrupt the northward transport of moisture into the colder air. That acts to limit precipitation totals.
  • If those thunderstorms across the deep south don’t flare up, then our snow numbers could overperform.
  • The swath of snow working across the state is likely to have some lighter holes in it. When and where those show up is always a tough call.

Here’s the First Call For Snowfall…

Notice the bullet points in the top right corner of the map.  I don’t expect this to be a consistent swath of snow with some low spots and a few hot spots. I’ve highlighted an area of eastern Kentucky as having the best chance for some of those hot spots to show up. That’s where our storm system comes together a little better after losing those southern thunderstorms.

I will have additional updates to the map later today.

I suspect we will see Winter Weather Advisories and possibly a Winter Storm Watch go up for many areas…

Behind all this comes frigid temps for the first week of March. Another system then tries to move in here with snow or a mix of snow and rain by Thursday and Friday. Once again, #teamspring ain’t happy about any of this.

Have a good one and take care.

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