Daily Archives: October 23, 2019

Time posted: 7:47 pm

Heavy Rain This Weekend

Good evening, folks. It’s all eyes on the weekend and the increasing potential for a significant rain event across much of the bluegrass state. This slow-moving storm system looks to bring rounds of rain and thunderstorms in here. After that, we focus on the end of the month into early November.

The potential weekend setup has been well covered in recent days and the model battle is over as the American models caved to their counterparts from abroad. Here are some headlines on how this plays out:

  • Rain arrives from the southwest Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
  • As the low works in from the southwest on Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will become common.
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible, with locally higher amounts showing up. That could be enough to create some local high water issues.
  • A few strong storms may even fire up just ahead of the track of the low that lifts from southwest to northeast.
  • Rain should end from west to east on Sunday as our storm moves away.

The models continue to spit out a lot of rain, especially across central Kentucky. The European Model is by far and away the wettest because it’s also the slowest mover…

The Canadian Model isn’t too far behind…

The GFS has a broad heavy rain event that comes in under the above models because it’s the fastest mover…

Obviously, the GFS has been playing catch up in a major way and didn’t find this system until last night.

That system moves away early Sunday, leaving us with some low clouds and a stray shower. Winds will be a little chilly.

The system coming in behind that to close out October and begin November is also giving us another big model split.

Arctic air is moving into the Rockies and plains states and then presses into our region from the west. There’s likely to be another big storm on the leading edge of this and that’s what the European Model continues to show. Check out the Ohio Valley rain and snow for late Wednesday into Halloween…

The GFS says, what storm? It just blasts the arctic air into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, but also has a few flakes zipping through the Ohio Valley…

Once again, the truth is likely in between those solutions, but much closer to the Euro than the GFS.

I will update things later tonight, so y’all come back… You too, haters! 🙂

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:07 am

Watching Wet Weather For The Weekend

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a few more days of beautiful fall weather, then some big changes move in for the weekend. Those changes include a strong southern storm system rolling right in here with what may be a soaking rain. An interesting look then tries to show up as we close out October and usher in November.

Let me start out with a big welcome to the seasonal haters. It’s good to have y’all back and giving me clicks! I honestly find it so bizarre the people who hate me the most are the same ones who read every single KWC post, check every single tweet and watch every TV forecast. Boy, that will sure teach me! Y’all keep doing your thing and keep me employed! 🙂

The weather today into Thursday continues to look awesome so enjoy.

I have no change to the weekend setup as a juicy system comes at us from the southwest late Friday into the weekend. This will bring an increase in rain and maybe even a rumble of thunder. The NAM has finally come around to this solution. This run only goes through early Saturday morning…

Check out that snow in areas of Texas and Oklahoma at the start of this system!

Guess what the GFS found? If you answered a heavy dose of reality, you are a winner. Talk about a dramatic reversal of fortune for those who worship it…

Those rainfall numbers are way up there…

The European Model is even wetter and just a bit farther west with the axis of heavy rains…

Once we get past that system, the setup for the closing days of October and into early November continues to fluctuate from model to model and from run to run.

Arctic air will be pouring into the Rockies and plains states early in the week. That air is going to try and spread east and should have a couple of storm systems riding along it. How far east that boundary gets as those systems crank will be a pain to forecast.

The GFS is doing what the GFS does and has a progressive look to the cold air and even shows some winter weather for the final few days of October…

That’s similar to what the Tuesday run of the Canadian was showing, but the overnight run stalls the arctic front to our west and produces a massive amount of rain around here…

Just like I said a few days ago with this weekend’s system, the actual truth is likely in between.

I will have another update later today, so be sure to check back in. We know the haters will be hitting the refresh button every few mins. 😉

Have a great day and take care.

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