Good evening, folks. It’s all eyes on the weekend and the increasing potential for a significant rain event across much of the bluegrass state. This slow-moving storm system looks to bring rounds of rain and thunderstorms in here. After that, we focus on the end of the month into early November.

The potential weekend setup has been well covered in recent days and the model battle is over as the American models caved to their counterparts from abroad. Here are some headlines on how this plays out:

  • Rain arrives from the southwest Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
  • As the low works in from the southwest on Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will become common.
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible, with locally higher amounts showing up. That could be enough to create some local high water issues.
  • A few strong storms may even fire up just ahead of the track of the low that lifts from southwest to northeast.
  • Rain should end from west to east on Sunday as our storm moves away.

The models continue to spit out a lot of rain, especially across central Kentucky. The European Model is by far and away the wettest because it’s also the slowest mover…

The Canadian Model isn’t too far behind…

The GFS has a broad heavy rain event that comes in under the above models because it’s the fastest mover…

Obviously, the GFS has been playing catch up in a major way and didn’t find this system until last night.

That system moves away early Sunday, leaving us with some low clouds and a stray shower. Winds will be a little chilly.

The system coming in behind that to close out October and begin November is also giving us another big model split.

Arctic air is moving into the Rockies and plains states and then presses into our region from the west. There’s likely to be another big storm on the leading edge of this and that’s what the European Model continues to show. Check out the Ohio Valley rain and snow for late Wednesday into Halloween…

The GFS says, what storm? It just blasts the arctic air into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, but also has a few flakes zipping through the Ohio Valley…

Once again, the truth is likely in between those solutions, but much closer to the Euro than the GFS.

I will update things later tonight, so y’all come back… You too, haters! 🙂

Enjoy your evening and take care.