Good Thursday, everyone. It’s all eyes on the heavy rain event moving in here for the upcoming weekend. This is a setup featuring a slow-moving storm system from the deep south, rolling northeastward across our region. That means rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms.
Here’s an updated look at how this thing may play out…
- Rain arrives from the south and southwest Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
- As the low works in from the southwest on Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will become common.
- Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible, with locally higher amounts showing up. That could be enough to create some local high water issues.
- The greatest threat for those high water issues will be across much of central and south central Kentucky.
- A few strong storms may even fire up just ahead of the track of the low that lifts from southwest to northeast.
- Rain should end from west to east on Sunday as our storm moves away.
- Winds are going to be another big player and could reach 40mph or greater.
Many of the models are showing several inches of rain falling. I’ll take the conservative approach with the initial rain forecast through the weekend…
That would still be enough to bring local high water concerns to the region.
The wind aspect is something I’m paying more and more attention to as we get closer to this system. The setup could bring high winds to our region, with the NAM showing gusts well in excess of 50mph late Saturday into Saturday night…
Once we get past this system, our attention quickly turns to the closing days of October into early November. The setup has a late October version of Arctic air invading the Rockies and plains states. This boundary slowly works eastward and into our region. How it does so will determine if this can produce a taste of winter weather across the Ohio Valley.
The Euro continues to be pretty wrapped up with a Wednesday-Halloween system right on top of our part of the world…
The Canadian continues to be similar to the Euro in the overall evolution. The snow map for the country through Halloween continues to show the flake chance around our region…
The Icon shows a few OV flakes as well…
The GFS continues to slowly correct toward a bigger storm system along the arctic boundary. You will see this correction continue in the coming days…
The progressive nature of the GFS has been on full display this week and that doesn’t bode well for those who only rely on this model, but even it has some Ohio Valley flakes…
I will have another update later today. Until then, I leave you with regional radar to track a small shower chance in the far west today…
Have a great Thursday and take care.
Looks like the rain train is back in town. That’s why there was no complaints from me when we had the long dry stretch. I knew it was just a matter of time before it became another soggy mess.
From one extreme to another extreme.
I was thinking about going to Beattyville for my first Woolly Worm Festival experience. Now, I’m thinking it might be better to just stay home on the couch:)
Our weather this year reminds me id the Bengals.
id, of- makes no difference.
Need to keep an eye on the low pressure in the Bay of Campeche as well–this is going to become entrained into the other system. It could enhance rainfall along the whole front or just on the southern end. The EURO may not be that far off on seeing some 6″ amounts–it just depends where.
Quit hyping storms, Chris! You only post for entertainment value! 😉 #justkidding
12Z NAM and Canadian have shifted the heaviest rain into western KY. Both models nailed the early week rain event, so any reason to go against them now? GFS still riding central KY as the axis of heaviest rain, but it’s the GFS. New or old, it’s still a crappy model. The WPC seems to be a compromise. Let’s not forget the northwest trend is a real phenomenon with these low pressure systems, so it shouldn’t be surprising if the heaviest rain ends up missing central and eastern KY to the west.
It’s also going to be interesting to see how the models handle over the next 24 hours the weak tropical system in the Gulf that possibly gets entrained into the main low. The Euro might have the best idea, but time will tell. Regardless, the added moisture could really enhance rainfall amounts where the axis of heaviest rain does fall.