Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a few more days of beautiful fall weather, then some big changes move in for the weekend. Those changes include a strong southern storm system rolling right in here with what may be a soaking rain. An interesting look then tries to show up as we close out October and usher in November.
Let me start out with a big welcome to the seasonal haters. It’s good to have y’all back and giving me clicks! I honestly find it so bizarre the people who hate me the most are the same ones who read every single KWC post, check every single tweet and watch every TV forecast. Boy, that will sure teach me! Y’all keep doing your thing and keep me employed! 🙂
The weather today into Thursday continues to look awesome so enjoy.
I have no change to the weekend setup as a juicy system comes at us from the southwest late Friday into the weekend. This will bring an increase in rain and maybe even a rumble of thunder. The NAM has finally come around to this solution. This run only goes through early Saturday morning…
Check out that snow in areas of Texas and Oklahoma at the start of this system!
Guess what the GFS found? If you answered a heavy dose of reality, you are a winner. Talk about a dramatic reversal of fortune for those who worship it…
Those rainfall numbers are way up there…
The European Model is even wetter and just a bit farther west with the axis of heavy rains…
Once we get past that system, the setup for the closing days of October and into early November continues to fluctuate from model to model and from run to run.
Arctic air will be pouring into the Rockies and plains states early in the week. That air is going to try and spread east and should have a couple of storm systems riding along it. How far east that boundary gets as those systems crank will be a pain to forecast.
The GFS is doing what the GFS does and has a progressive look to the cold air and even shows some winter weather for the final few days of October…
That’s similar to what the Tuesday run of the Canadian was showing, but the overnight run stalls the arctic front to our west and produces a massive amount of rain around here…
Just like I said a few days ago with this weekend’s system, the actual truth is likely in between.
I will have another update later today, so be sure to check back in. We know the haters will be hitting the refresh button every few mins. 😉
Have a great day and take care.
I (of course) can’t speak for everyone, but I can say I appreciate what you do. My main complaint would be your tendency to use the higher population areas as the base for your daily temps, but most of your viewers live there so…makes sense to me lol. I myself don’t hate on you though. Your blog gives me a rough idea of what “could” happen weeks, sometimes months, out. I really enjoy when you give a “wild” weather scenario and tell the likelihood of it coming to fruition or not. (My two cents) I think you do a great job, and thank you for your efforts. I’ve tuned in to your blog for years, and look forward to your long term winter forecast every year. Thank you, and don’t let the hate bring you down…may GOD bless you.
I hope we get some snow soon but I don’t hate ya if we don’t. Weather is hard to predict even on the best of days sometimes. I appreciate what u do and wish I knew more about it. Weather has always fascinated me but I will leave predicting it to the professionals!
Same Same Same.
Oh, on a rare note – the mesonet for Lexington and KLEX are the exact same temp as I type this. GASP!
Haters are gonna hate! But us weather weenies love you Chris! Thanks for all that you do! Niw is the time of year for the good stuff! 🙂
It is CB’s fault if it doesn’t snow – obviously.
Who is hating on Chris!? We love you chris! Favorite weather man hands down since I was 13!
I haven’t seen any blog comments of anyone hating on him.
You need to read closer.
😉
At the risk of nudging Virgil, et al, into a hissy fit: Let the skies open and dump Winter on us…not the Polar Vortex but the Polar Express with snow and flurries and all the stuff that brings joy and fun to winter as opposed to a gray, dull, boring winter that is hard, even depressing, to endure.
Bottoms up on the hot chocolate!
Love Chris Bailey! I brag on him all of the time
Will Saturday be a WKYT FIRST ALERT SEVERE WEATHER DAY for the rain?
Chris, I’m no hater. I rely on your posts more than any other forecaster to know what to expect. Way more often than not you are right. Thanks for this blog!
I always check out KWC every day, and I love the twice-a-day posts from Chris now that winter isn’t too far off.
The various computer models on the blog which forecast precipitation and temperatures for the present and future are always interesting to follow, and they usually show my neck of the woods, the Chicago Metro area (I live about 40 miles SW of Chicago).
It’s interesting to compare all that to the predictions of the Chicago television weather forecasters.
I hope all of you in Kentucky/Tennessee can get a couple of decent snows this winter!
I grew up listening to WGN’s Tom Skilling on cable tv. His knowledge, experience, and love for weather not only has benefited Chicago these past several decades, but meteorology itself and ‘outsiders’ like myself who is not ashamed to call him a legend in his own right.
Love the website. My go to for checking the forecast instead of those stupid apps.
As far as the haters? Haters gonna hate. 🙂
The one request I would have is to pin a link to long-range seasonal outlook posts. I love them and reading your rationale for your theories. Unfortunately, if you miss them, you miss them, and they get lost into the “interwebs” unless you do a thorough page by page search of the entire page. Likely, we will not even know if you have done one yet.
The fact that there are haters are out there at all means you are doing what you do with excellence and professionalism. Keep doing what you do and we weather weenies will keep checking the blog every morning (and most evenings). Rock on, brother.
Here’s to a few flakes flying before the end of October. (*snow dance*)
Cheers,
LeeAnn
Forget the haters! You do a great job and I read you everyday even though I live in Southern Ohio! Keep on keeping on!!!!
Chris,
you do a great job. Look forward everyday to seeing your weather report. Keep up the good work. Exciting weather just around the corner
SNOW!!