Good evening, everyone. We are wrapping up a fantastic fall day and we have a few more ahead of us. From there, things continue to look very wet for the weekend as a storm rolls in from the southwest. This is part of a busy late October setup that likely rolls into early November, but with a little bit of a change. There’s an increasing chance for more of a winter looking pattern setting up.

Let’s focus on the weekend setup as we now have just about every model on board with what the Euro and Canadian have been showing for several days. The one holdout? Yep… the GFS. Bless it.

Here’s the European Model for Friday night through Sunday…

The only correction we’ve been seeing with the Euro is the one we talked about. It holds on to energy too long as it comes from the southwest, so the timing of this system is speeding up.

That could be another widespread soaker of a rainstorm…

The Canadian is similar to the Euro, but it’s a little quicker…

The impact from this system should show up as early as Friday evening, but should be gone by Sunday afternoon.

Arctic cold air will keep pushing into the Rockies and plains then pressing east into the middle of next week. This could fire up a developing storm along this arctic air. That’s exactly what the Canadian is showing…

Can this setup bring our part of the world a very early touch of winter? MAYBE. Obviously, a lot has to happen to produce flakes in October, but the pattern suggests it has, at least, an outside chance. I keep going back to the analogs I threw out back in September and the progression of October is following a couple of those very closely.

As I look into November, I think… Hmmm, very interesting. 🙂

Have a great evening and take care.