Daily Archives: November 13, 2019

Time posted: 7:40 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We’re putting the wraps on an historic weather day here in the bluegrass state with a little cloud cover coming in. There isn’t a whole lot going on around here for the next few days, so we are going to focus on the setup for next week.

As I’ve mentioned several times lately, there’s so much energy in the pattern that the computer models are going to struggle mightily. This time of year with the seasonal change is hard enough, but the shear amount of energy and storm systems doesn’t bode well for them.

Still, let’s give a little check on what they’re saying.

The European has our east coast system this weekend into early next week. It also shows the weak little system diving in here by Monday and Tuesday, possibly producing a rain or snow shower…

There’s another system working in quickly behind that later next week. The European Model brings that through here by Thursday and Friday…

The Canadian Model has a much bigger system…

I like the bigger system idea as this is a pattern that can really amplify and produce a big storm system or storm systems over the next few weeks.

The European Ensembles then show another deep trough in the east as we head into Thanksgiving week…

Have a great evening and take care.


Time posted: 12:30 pm

Record Cold This Morning

Good afternoon, everyone. As expected, this morning was truly historic with the coldest numbers ever recorded for this early in the season. Many areas dropped deep into the single digits, with Henderson checking in with a whopping 2 degrees.

Check out the lows from the Kentucky Mesonet…

Temps go above freezing this afternoon with temps in the 40s on Thursday. As a big system develops to our southeast, chillier air returns by Friday into Saturday.

Here are the NAM numbers…

That system will be followed up by another system late this weekend and early next week. At the same time, another system digs into the Ohio Valley and could bring some rain and snow…



This isn’t a pattern for model lovers because the models are going to struggle with so much energy crossing the country.

I will have another update this evening. Until then. make it a good one and take care.


Time posted: 1:44 am

Where Do We Go From Here?

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s another absolutely frigid day in the bluegrass state, but the numbers look to moderate a bit in the coming days. It’s still skewed colder than normal, just not the brutal stuff of the last few days. As we look down the weather road for the rest of November, things could get interesting again.

Today is historic in terms of cold. This is likely the coldest morning ever recorded this early in the season. Wow! Add this to the long list of extreme events we’ve seen in recent months and years. Mother Nature no longer does anything on a small level.

After the current arctic cold pushes east, temps moderate but are still skewing colder than normal for the rest of the week.

The overall pattern looks very blocky with systems cutting off across the eastern part of the country this weekend into early next week. Can we get some kind of merger to take place? That’s something we need to be on guard for. Check out the Canadian upper levels to see what I’m talking about…

That would form one heck of a storm along the east coast with the potential for another system to pop in our region by early next week…

The Canadian brings a little rain and snow to the area by Monday and Tuesday. The ICON has a similar evolution…

The Canadian then digs another deep system into the east later next week…

With so many systems on the map, look for some fairly wide model swings in the coming days.

I’ll have updates later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.