Good evening everyone. I only have time to give you a VERY brief update as I am about ready to watch the Cats and Vols at Rupp. Winter Storm Watches are out for just about the entire region from late Sunday through Monday. Here are my thoughts..
– Light snows will develop from west to east Sunday.
– Snows will increase in coverage and intensity Sunday night into early Monday. Some heavy snows will be likely. This happens as the low itself rides eastward across the area.
– Wrap around snow showers and squalls will ramp up late Monday and continue through Tuesday and likely Wednesday. This setup can put down several inches on top of what the low brings.
– All told widespread 3″-6″ snow totals will be common across the region through Tuesday. There will be a stripe of 4″-8″ with locally higher amounts.
– Again.. this will be everything combined that falls from Sunday through Tuesday!
I will have a full update later tonight so check back. Have a great evening and take care.
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Thanks, Chris. Go ‘Cats! Be safe on the roads, and BRING ON THE SNOWS!!!
Enjoy the game Chris!
no model updates game 90 minutes away, somebody post evening model runs if u can please.
THANKS CHRIS FOR THE UPDATE, YOUR THE BEST.. HOW MUCH SNOW FOR BARBOURVILLE DOES ANYONE KNOW?? THANKS!
i’ll post latest nam and gfs
Thanks for the update Chris,looks like a pretty good snow heading or way, I say bring it on, and GO BIG BLUE!! Enjoy the game, I only wish I could be there to see it in person, but watching it on ESPN will do.
Thanks Chris for the update : ) Bring on the snow, I’m still hopeful that we will get a major snow storm before winter ends, i want 2 feet of snow : )
when’s this next runs coming out tommy?
hour for nam near 11 for gfs
Can anyone post a link to the 18Z GFS snowfall map?
Barbourville will get hammmmmmerrred baby! 40-50 inches, a real PTP’er. Snowmaggedon!! I LOVE DUKE. Heeeeaavy snow, baby, diaper dandies dropping from the sky, babeee!!! I LOVE DUKE. Barborville babeeeee!!!! I LOVE DUKE.
Here ya go: http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
This is rude but, I couldn’t help but, laugh. Diaper dandies dropping from the sky. lmao :p
That snowfall track may be right, but it seems a little too far north to me. The storms really makes a hard left turn up into Indiana and Ohio. This winter the repeating pattern has been mid-atlantic as an exit point, not New England. The upper air flow is no different today than it was on Tuesday.
The only thing I can think that would cause that change is an expansion of the southeast ridge. Like I said, maybe this is right, but the GFS has been so stable on this, a 100 mile move seems like junk. I notice Indy isn’t biting yet.
tx tommy my olr buddy,
uk 83 UT 62 ill be chatting on her during game.
This time last night, I said if they went 100 miles North, you’d be in the bullseye..the current trend (if it goes much further north) will put you too far South..LOL
18z GFS is way too far North. OOZ will brings things back around to what they have been showing the past several days.
i don’t think that that is on rack. have you all noticed a trend that the 18z models always get messed up and go back to the way they were?
someone correct me if i am wrong but is the nam trying to merge the jest streams at 30 hours??!!! wow!
now if only Dick knew how to spell 😉
Here in Charleston WV the NWS has issued a winter storm watch and calls for 6 to 9 inches. Hope it pans out. I also hope your cats can do better the WVU last night. Good luck.
what? would that be good for snow across central ky? can you put the link on here?
Something is going on there…interesting how it will pan out in the next few frames!!
Looks like precip blowing up out of the gulf
this is BIG!!!! IT IS ONE RUN BUT IF IT VERIFIES 4-8 IS WAY UNDERDONE….
Yep..for all of KY…border, to border..already at .50 QPF at 36 hours…you seeing that Tommy?
yea, i think this is going to be the big one for lex, now thats going out on a limb but this thing upon arrival is more a gulf low than a clipper because it is really tapping some serious moisture…looking like up to 1” of liquid and with good ratios in place esp for n and c ky this could be quite big…but border to border 6” plus is lookin very possible
Yeah, the Nam is going back to a KY track and showing more QPF…if the GFS comes in similar, throw out that major northern trend with the 18Z models
So I take it our snow chances are looking better
this nam shows louisville to cincinatti getting near a foot with the rest of the state getting a 6 or 8 inch snow…qfp sweetspots matched 18z gfs dead on
please put the link on here.
Is it looking better for eastern ky?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p48_054l.gif
my first call:http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/321.jpg
thank you a lot.
i think big qfp could be more widespread because models are just now realizing that this taps the gulf which means more snow for everyone assuming waa doesnt come with the moisture
throw that map away you say 6-8 inches for most the state but have everybody on your map below 64 4 inches of snow or less ???
Agreed.
Not bad…I’d broaden the 6-8 and maybe put it at 5-7..looks like a broad 5-7 for Central & most of Southern KY with a narrow 8-10 hugging the river
Cats leading at halftime!!!! only by one though. I HATE VOLS. THEM ORANGE BAFOONS! Some serious moisture forecasted here for the storm time frame! I think this thing is definitley going to tap into some of that bitter sweet Gulf of Mexico moisture!!!!
Make your own map Mandy , I mean Candy errrr Sandy
Geeesh a person makes a map and let it be you to damage it. PuTZ
Hey guys, I wanted to put you on to something very interesting. At John Belski’s blog there is a guy named RedBarron. He has a proprietary model he and another person developed at MIT called the CAPZ 5. It nailed the forecast several days out for the last storm.
Earlier this morning, he posted on Belski’s blog his CAPZ 5 model was always farther north than the NAM or GFS were. His model predicted the heaviest snows would be just north of the river. He also said both the NAM and GFS would trend north just as they have tonight.
This is something to watch. I’ll keep you posted on what he has to say.
yea possibly more than the nam or gfs realize yet…
ROLO, you definitley sound like somebody I could sit around, down a few cold ones (and stout ones) and discuss weather with while watching this awesome rivalry game. What do you think about this upcoming storm, (harlan county) and where do you live. i know you are in Southern KY, but where.
I LOVE DUKE, babeee. Looks like diaper dandies will be ACCUMULATING all over KY. Babee… I LOVE DUKE… No way Coach K goes to the Nets, but no net can save my sphellling skills from the snowpocolypsye, babeee! Nothern storm phasing with a gulf loe, babeee, revenge for the war of northern aggression, babbeeeee….I love DUKE.
could someone tell me what they think we will get in southern laurel county? thanks!
how much snow do any of you see for Johnson/Floyd counties this weekend?
They could still win, but KY seems to have learned nothing from the SC loss.
Meant “probably”, but perhaps another Freudian slip.
Wow Tommy…your map was spot on!!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
CB must have read my post and told Cal 😉
i will be traveling from pigeon forge monday to the Lexington area, what will the roads and snow amounts be like
Please say the GFS trends further south…please say the GFS trends further south…
Looks like the last run has this thing going more north still…is west and north central ky out of this thing now….? Jeesh…what a 180 turn.!
Gotta love them CATS!!!
all of ky is going to get snow right now i’d put lousiville to dayton as highest snow amounts with other areas seeing lesser but still warning criteria amounts…lex could easily go 6 to 8 inches remeber…we are dealing with excellent ratios so .1 liquid maybe 1.6 or so inches of snow…the further north the higher the ratios
here at cvg gfs puts out .7 liquid with 15 ro 20 to 1 ratios this could be our biggest snow yet…same for lex area as well…the gulf is really giving this low what it needs to overachieve bigtime.
What do you all see for Seymour area?
What about Somerset?
At girst glance looking at the NAM not impressive to me for most areas south of 64 west of 75………….If GFS counters that game still on if not it might be more of the same ole song and dance nuisance snow.
I ask for someone to tell me what barbourville was looking at, i didnt ask for someone to be a smart a**.. its people like you that make others not want to even visit blogs anymore, because they cant speak or ask anything without someone being childish and rude! oh and btw DUKE SUCKS>>>
I do not understand how some of you are saying we are only going to get 1-2 in. in Harlan on your maps, but everything else I am hearing is saying 4-8 in. Can someone explain?
because they change there totals with every model that comes out
1″ or less is tops for somerset by storms end. Somerset should see the least snow of anyone in the state
I know that, but Harlan is far Southeastern KY, and it always seems like we get upslope from these snows.
how’s about manchester(clay co.)?? what do you all see for us??? thanks..:)
you will probably get more in upslope that cincinnati gets with the actual storm.id rather have the upslope than an up in the air clipper system anyday
1-2
The thing that I am wondering though, I am currently in Eastern Ohio, and heading back to Southeastern KY tomorrow. I do not know whether to go down US 23 through Ashland and Pikeville, or take the interstate to Cincinnati, and go back that way. I am thinking about going through Ashland, since it is further east, and may take the snow longer to get there!
typical northward shift at the last minute with this clipper/upper air low. could see 10 in covington as the hvy snow badn is workign into areas where the ratios will be higher. a lot of southern ky folks see rain for a few hours sunday night now
looks like the storm is going north… a bust for eastern ky… i give up on a huge snow… bring on spring
Depends what time U leave Not really supposed to really start until late afternoon
Chris’s update will tell us what it means.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
Did you guys see that sign during game day!!
In Kentucky we love our cousins .
In Tennessee they marry them!!!!
GO CATS!!!!
Bless your heart. This is not a bust. Just wait and see. SE Kentucky will record the highest totals in the state, in my humble opinion.
GFS is no better than the NAM. The raw numbers of both would suggest 3-5 at best for places like Lex, Danville, London and that might be pushing it. Also has the precip start a little later. I am not convinced this is correct but places more doubt on earlier forcast.
Bernie is that just though sunday because i am thinking se ky or pike wont get in on the main action till Monday what are your thoughts on that
?
I’m tired, Chris. Guess I’ll catch up on the update in the morning. Night fellow weather bloggers 🙂
Let me clarify that a little better. Doubt if Winter Storm criteria will be met. (4 inches in 12 hours or 6 inches in 24 hours)
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
I sure wish Chris would give us a little update I’m tired and I sure don’t won’t to go to bed under a WSW only to get up in the morning to nothing.
Live in the Owensboro area and this thing is looking like a bust for us. Just this morning we were in the swath for heavy snow and now who knows. Latest runs keep moving north and we may be outta this thing now…what a sharp turn this low has done…..geesh or pete!!!!
Jim Caldwell’s new update has most of KY in the 6-10 inch range. Unfortunately I’m in Laurel County and in the 3 to 6 inch area.
Steady snow in SE Lexington (Richmond Road) for about 15 minutes now. Still have about 2 inches on the ground from the last snow. Off tomorrow for the holiday so this could be fun:)
Greetings Chris,
We miss you here in Lexington. 27 News First is just not the same. Can’t we talk you into leaving the mountains and coming back to the bluegrass? When will this winter lighten up?