Good Sunday everyone. I have had a long day cheering on my Cats and hanging out with friends and even doing some catching up with my boy TG. I will get to the heart of the matter and that is we have a prolonged Winter Storm moving in for the next several days. This will drop several inches of snow across the entire area from later today through Tuesday and probably into Wednesday.
It is important to note that the snow is not going to fall all at once.
– Light snows will develop from west to east later today with light accumulations.
– Heavier snows move in tonight into the first half of Monday with widespread 1″-4″ falling during this time.
– Snow showers and squalls will kick in later Monday and carry us through Tuesday and even Wednesday. This will likely put down several more inches.
With all that in mind… here is my second call for snowfall…
Locally higher amounts are more than possible with this type of setup.
You can track the light snows as they move our way…
I will have another update coming later today so make sure you check back. Take care.
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Thanks Chris for giving us do much of your time.
Thanks Chris for giving us so much of your time SORRY typing in the dark.
Looks like Somerset is barely in the 3″-6″ range…Probably for the lake cumberland area a 0″-2″ is more realistic.
Likin the map cb! I bet tg is ready for spring lol!
Boyle County- 19* Flurries fell most of Saturday.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
this from the nws. the nam brings warm air northward for most of se ky the gfs was colder. best snows look to be along 1-71 I’m acutally thinking 6-12 due to higher ratios by late monday there. all of us see at least 2 inches though with se ky only seeing a hour or two of rain at the start.
…FORECAST UPDATE…
BASED ON THE NEW NAM…WE MAY HAVE TO DROP THE AMOUNTS IN OUR
SRN/ERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT/MON…BASED ON A SFC LO TRACK FROM WKY TO
LOUISVILLE AND UP THE OH RIVER TO NEAR CVG. MORE WARM AIR SHUD GET
IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO THE S/E OF THE LOW…LEADING TO A POSSIBLE
MIX OR CHGOVER TO RAIN. PRECIP WOULD CHG BACK TO SNOW AFTER FROPA TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW…BEFORE BEING DRY SLOTTED. LOOKS LIKE SRN
INDIANA/NCKY NEAR THE RIVER WOULD STAY SNOW…BASED ON FCST
SOUNDINGS…WHERE AS BWG WOULD START AS SNOW…GO TO A MIX OR
RAIN…THEN BACK TO SNOW. ACCUMS IN OUR S/SERN COUNTIES DEFINITELY
WOULD BE CURTAILED.
THIS IS BASED ON JUST THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUN. WE WILL EXAMINE THE
ENTIRE SUITE OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND LIKELY COME OUT WITH WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES THAT WILL COVER MOST OR ALL OUR FA.
Hey everyone…. Im ready 4 spring time and Im counting down. Stay safe out there and have fun.
Folks, prepare yourselves for less than you expected/hoped. This won’t be a complete bust, but I get the sense it won’t be what we hoped.
A 100 mile shift in the low this late is bad news. It looks like the storm is actually getting a bit stronger and the resulting negative tilt is helping turn this thing more northeast.
Clippers are notorious and I think the NAM is more realistic, but te trend ain’t our friend. Just don’t get your hopes up is all I’m saying.
When the guy who runs the new CAPZ 5 model from MIT checks in on Belski’s blog, I’ll report back.
He always said his model had the low further north and the snow in Louisville and southern Indiana.
Chris does have not have many weaknesses and is one of best mets out there but one of them is the occasional underestimation of WAA. hopefully he’s right with the totals in portions of southern and eastern ky, the snow showers should help out as well.
yup this is very typical of systems like these to shift north at the last minute.
Mitch are you saying se Ky is out of it? What are thoughts on Pike?
I ebt us here in the Lexington area will get most of our snow from the first round. We seem to miss out of the “snow showers and snow squalls” accumulations.
Jake
I’ve been reading this blog for a long time, and CB usually gets clippers spot on.
He also says never get hung up on one run of a model, so I try not to.
Have seen several discussions saying this clipper may tap into gulf moisture also. May help south Ky. totals?
Last minute north shift- what a surprise 😉
Too used to this to think much of it. Central KY is cursed and has as much chance of a big snow as Wall staying for a sophomore year.
Folks, I would rather have nothing than keep getting these annoying , several inch snows that are only good for getting the kids out of school and get the vehicles all funky salted up.
I am done with it. BOS!
THAT is the problem, since along with that comes the warm air that could dominate or at least break up the party with some WAA.
Warm air may T-bone the system as it moves east. Kind of like the system a month ago that was supposed to be a big snow maker and got jacked by the warm air as it moved east.
Mitch (unfortunately) is making a pretty decent case for busting the results up to some degree. Question is how much and how far north it impacts. “It” being warm air.
I hope Mitch and some other mets & models are putting too much in the warm air and a north trend, but current feeling is 2″ to 4″ when all is said and done for my backyard.
That being said, CB’s map is trending that way too, when compared to what was originally posted.
I’m trying to convince myself that we will get 3.5 inches in my part of Richmond. How far are you from Hackett Pike/Union City Road area?
I am in between i75 and Redhouse road (about 2 miles south of exit 95).
The general view ATM is that if you notice how CB’s map shifted totals north- expect it to to be even more north later today.
CB may have missed some data due to juggling an outlook with the Cats and travel. Or maybe not 😉 Hope is a very thin thing, you know.
I cross Redhouse Rd everyday, though I’m closer to Richmond…. roughly 6 miles NE.
Bubbag, wonder if I will be able to squeeze out 2″? I’m not too far away from exit 83 off I-75 in Madison. It’s been uncanny this winter the difference in snow amounts from one end of Madison to the other (similar to the difference you described the other day between north Madison and south Fayette).
If you go by CB’s map, you could get 6″, but notice the shift of CB’s map from earlier. Seems to conform to a north shift, but still could be too high for totals.
I would expect you to be in 2″ to 4″ as well, but as you point out, big differences just a few miles away. The price of being on a fence for over a decade 😉
Interesting to see if CB’s map holds or does another northern shift. My guess is it is far more likely to shift north than to go south- based on current information.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I hope it DOES shift north. I have a scheduled appt for my heat pump Mon (late afternoon) and my luck there will be 8 inches of snow and they will cancel. Just sayin’
Looks like the weather channel is fairly unanimous with a statewide 3-6 inch snowfall. (which is good considering they sometimes forget KY is on the map)
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/severenow/floater6_large.html
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Winter Storm Warning now out for Fayette and sevral surronding counties.
Madison County just got downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. 2-4 inches.
Jackson says warning criteria still likely, especially for southeastern kentucky.
.SHORT TERM…/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/…UPDATED
…ESTILL NORTHWEST TO ELLIOTT COUNTY IN WINTER STORM WARNING…
WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SHORT AND UPDATE IN MORE DETAIL A BIT
LATER. HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE ESTILL TO ELLIOTT COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING STARTING AT 11 PM TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH…
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WATCH UP FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY. STILL FEEL THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL TO REACH WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE SOUTH…ESPECIALLY IF NOSE OF WARM AIR DOES NOT
MAKE IT INTO REGION. 06Z NAM CAME IN QUITE A BIT COOLER AND WITH BEST
DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT…FEEL THAT OVERALL COLUMN
COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW EVEN IN THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT…
STILL BELIEVE OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE WARNED AT SOME
POINT FOR THE UPSLOPE EVENT…HOWEVER WILL LEAVE THE WATCH TO AVOID
PUBLIC CONFUSION. MORE DETAILED SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS TO
FOLLOW AFTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED.
For Madison County:
Issued by The National Weather Service
Louisville, KY
3:26 am EST, Sun., Feb. 14, 2010
… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM OHIO COUNTY EAST THROUGH MADISON COUNTY.
* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH THIS SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN LATER EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW WILL BEGIN TO COVER ROADWAYS SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TWO TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY.
* OTHER IMPACTS: AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH MAY FALL BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
SNOW… POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN LATE TODAY… IS EXPECTED. ICE AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO COVER ROADS EARLY MONDAY. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION.
Hey. Go look at the snow maps on Mitch’s website and you can see tommy smiling up there in N. Ky., lol. Tommy, don’t take all our snow now. Push some down here.
REPOST from late last nights previous thread:
Saturday, February 13, 2010 11:58 PM Michael P…Boyle wrote:
GFS is no better than the NAM. The raw numbers of both would suggest 3-5 at best for places like Lex, Danville, London and that might be pushing it. Also has the precip start a little later. I am not convinced this is correct but places more doubt on earlier forcast.
Reply to this
Sunday, February 14, 2010 12:03 AM Michael P…Boyle wrote:
Let me clarify that a little better. Doubt if Winter Storm criteria will be met. (4 inches in 12 hours or 6 inches in 24 hours)
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
Reply to this
Saturday, February 13, 2010 11:58 PM Michael P…Boyle wrote:
GFS is no better than the NAM. The raw numbers of both would suggest 3-5 at best for places like Lex, Danville, London and that might be pushing it. Also has the precip start a little later. I am not convinced this is correct but places more doubt on earlier forcast.
Reply to this
Sunday, February 14, 2010 12:03 AM Michael P…Boyle wrote:
Let me clarify that a little better. Doubt if Winter Storm criteria will be met. (4 inches in 12 hours or 6 inches in 24 hours)
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
Reply to this
Look at the temp gradient across the state right now..teens and single digits east, upper 20s and low 30s west
This morning’s HPC map still looks good for a 4 inch plus snowfall across the northern half of KY
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
I agree Chris. I mean am I missing something? The new QPF was released at 7am and it has the bullseye right over Louisville for .9 liquid. at 15:1 or higher snow ratio if verified would dump a foot of snow over that area alone. yet the NWS has the area in a 4-6″ potential. So my question is how does the HPC get their data? Is it reliable this close to the event?
definitely interesting, especially considering they are all part of the same org. So what is the HPC seeing that the local office is or is not (or vice versa)?
The simple fact is that CKY will likely NEVER see another major snowfall. It doesn’t matter what a system looks like, it will move to our north with the best snows 99.9% of the time. The other .1% of the time it will pass us by to the south, east or west. How on earth can Dallas, TX get a 12+ inch storm, when we can barely muster a 6 incher in the best of winters anymore?!
Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this DOME!!!
Im so tired of constant misses this year for CKY….BRING ON SPRING!
For what its worth (not much) accucrack says upper 50’s to low 60’s to start off March… 🙂 If it wont snow the big one, might as well warm up quick!
19 Sunny degrees in Nicholasville, Winds calm.
like bout 12 inches is all and ill have a foot down here in manchester..
Goodmorning Chris & Bloggers!
WOW 6z NAM trended way back south.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_sl8_030m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_sl8_036m.gif
Bernie, I am praying that storm south…begging and pleading with THE WEATHERMAN. I just want one big one!
I’m with you there. 14 degrees in Wilmore. If we won’t get a big one, bring on spring!
Me too! I’m hoping for a DOME buster, I’m like Bubba, I want RESULTS, I think if the 12z NAM is similiar, the advisories will be upgraded.. thats only my 2 cents.
It’s amazing how accurate the EURO was at 72HR, then within the range, the METs have to play with models that jumps like a FISH outta water! 😉
Freeze that model run..!!!!
That’s about perfect for CKY…
…
12z NAM is similiar just a tad faster.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_sl8_024m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_sl8_030m.gif
Rolo, you crack me up!:)lol
Okay…based on these last runs, can someone tell me what this means for ky?
Hmmm, I’m not sure I understand what Jackson NWS is doing. I’m in the WSW, Rowan Co,however counties to my north such as Lewis, under a watch..storm total for them are suggested to be 5-8 inches tonight through tomorrow night, storm totals for us are expected to be 4-8 tonight through Tuesday morning…varying amounts throughout the 2 to 3 days..now why would that put us in a warning and Maysville/Vanceburg,and all around me in an watch? Sorry it just doesn’t make sense to me.
Great, SUCCESS on my last post, cause it went to moderation, that is not success tome haha…anyway, I’m confused with the warning and watches from Jackson NWS..Morehead(Me)in a warning, but only expeted to get 4-8 from late tonight through Tuesday morning, varying amounts throughout the whole period resulting a total accumulation of 4-8..Vanceburg,Maysville, points to my north are under a watch, but are forecast to get 5-8 inches toniight through tomorrow morning?? Doesn’t that seem backwards? They are getting a lot more snow in a short period of time, ours is forecast to be 1-3, pus a couple more on Monday, plus a couple more Mondayn night…does that make sense?
Two post successfully went to moderation, how happpy am I?! 🙂 This one will probably go through.
Their discussion said they based their map before the 06Z NAM came out (which by the way put the bullseye) over Lexington. They also said the heaviest axis of snow would be along the Ohio River, through Kentucky (Remember, Ohio River curves North), and then into West Virginia.
The 12Z NAM has the heaviest precip up north. Still decent for Central KY, but looks like the dry slot goes right over Central KY
Bowling Green & Owensboro, both reporting light snow…
Louisville reporting fog/mist
…
Surprised?
Latest GFS Run showing SE KY with highest amounts 8-10 120 hrs out. I think this has to take into account the upslope event following the storm. It is looking quite good for Northern KY too.
http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Deenie, John Belski from wave3 was saying if all the models verify, then Louisville could be looking at 10 inches. Where are you in ky?
Not at all…right now it appears the heaviest band will be I-64 north (just like Chris’ 2nd call map) but still a good snowfall across Lexington metro and points just to the south. SE Ky should get a good upslope. I would be most concerned for little snow (less than 3 inches) if I was in South Central our Southern KY
ole CB needs to drink some3 water and get the hair of the dog, and get forcasting. this ball game stuff with TG going have to stop.
ur weatherman not basketball watchers.lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
LOL! But maybe we can allow them a game here or there in return for all the work they do for us. 🙂
Adding to this JB also said he just got off the phone wiith NWS in Louisville and they will be upgrading their totals to 5-8″ with locally 10″ or more depending on if and where banding sets up! So it looks like the storm is starting to take shape everyone! Glad the 18z and 00z runs were just a hiccup =)
FROM Belski’s Blog
I just talked to the NWS and they are updating the zones and will be going 5-7 for Louisville and up to 8 over southern Indiana and the KY counties NE of Louisville.
Looks Like North Shift
Around the Owensboro area.
Is this a blooper from LMK? 😉
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY CHANGE ANY
RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS OUR SOUTH BACK TO RAIN. EXPECT BLUSTERY AND RAW
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
That appears to be more of a southerly shift, since the NWS had Louisville in the 3-5 range and 4-6 just to the north of that…
With the dry slotting and heavier bands setting up north, looks like southern KY is out of the game with this one. Won’t be surprised if JKL cancels WSW in the south and southwest. The favored areas for upslope snows (Se KY) look good for warnings. IMO, if we don’t get 5-6 inches, then forget it. An inch or two is worthless and keeps schools closed for two days or more. Bring on spring.
HPC and local office products come out at different times. Much of the HPC data came out after the forecasts went out and are generally guidance for the day shift. Likewise, the late afternoon HPC guidance is meant for the evening and overnight shift. Remember, HPC has to forecast for the whole country…just takes longer.
What a beautiful day outside!!!!!!!
Happy Valentines Day to all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HPC and local office products come out at different times. Much of the HPC data came out after the forecasts went out and are generally guidance for the day shift. Likewise, the late afternoon HPC guidance is meant for the evening and overnight shift. Remember, HPC has to forecast for the whole country…just takes longer.
That 5-7 inch snowfall amount for Louisville area even that might be a conservative number most not all but most maps have Louisville getting almost 10-12 inches rather that happens is up in air. But the HPC has Louisville getting nailed they seem as of now to be in the sweet spot. Louisville still has 4 inches on the ground and a minium of 6 or more inches pretty much guarnteed coming there way the snow gods are smiling on Louisville. That I-64 corridor has been a money maker for snow this year.
In Clark Co. we have had one snow this winter that was greater than 3″. Not looking for anything different out of this storm.
HPC and local office products come out at different times. Much of the HPC data came out after the forecasts went out and are generally guidance for the day shift. Likewise, the late afternoon HPC guidance is meant for the evening and overnight shift. Remember, HPC has to forecast for the whole country…just takes longer.
could someone tell me what they think these changes mean for southern Laurel County? will we get much snow or will we be sitting under the big “snow dome” again?
HPC confirms that.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
4-7 Lexington Metro; 5-8 North of I-64
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=48250&source=0
CB’s map is still probably good, just the lower range for everyone south of i64 (as usual).
Sorry gang, but these two to four inch snows are near worthless and only serve as a function for accidents, kids out of school and saltfunk-crusted cars.
CB would only need to upgrade his map if a bigger shift north. I did not mention “south” on purpose. Not seeing it anymore, unless CB sees something that the other mets are missing.
BOS! 🙂
Not much at all. The action will be up north. ON the bright side, we won’t have to listen to Louisville area folks whine about not getting any snow.
So I’m guessing that Eastern Ky is out of the heavy snow now
Unless there is going to be a major shift more north and a BIG temp cutoff with the freezing line, I can not see how L-ville gets 10-12″ and central KY does not get at least 6″-8″ due to the flow of the system.
That is unless this system will flow in a right angle 😉
If L-ville gets a big one, we should get a good one too (just not as good).
It’s crazy Bernie how that I-64 corridor right along that Ohio River has been the bullseye for the last couple of storms. Getting real close to the storm just do not see the models waffling all that much now. North Central KY far southern Indiana and Southern Ohio once again looks like the big winners.
SE KY for sure most of our moisture will be rain as usual with these types of systems so maybe the kids won’t miss school all week again
Louisville’s basketball and football teams are garbage this year but I guess there making up for it and robbing everybody’s snow. lol
Jay Cardosi isn’t quite as bullish as Belski or the NWS. He thinks the 5H low will move right over Louisville and give the city 4 inches. The NAM puts the 5H low through central Kentucky though. We’ll see.
Unless there is going to be a major shift more north and a BIG temp cutoff with the freezing line, I can not see how L-ville gets 10-12″ and central KY does not get at least 6″-8″ due to the flow of the system.
If L-ville gets a big one, we should get a good one too (just not as good).
That is unless the dome IS real……
man i wish we would get some snow around here….OH! we do have snow still and more to come!….(Just rubbing it in some more folks!) All are welcome to come to the homestead for sledding, tubing, and just plain old snow fun! BubbaG have you made it to Perfect North this winter….they have powder conditions……been great!
64 doesn’t run along the Ohio, it just crosses the Ohio at Louisville. The river is more north-south, or actually more like NE-SW, and 64 is east-west. For example it runs through Lexington, and Lexington has not been the bullseye. lol
I thought Lexington has been holding there own with the snow this year?? What have you guy’s gotten so far this year? I stand corrected the I-64 I-71 corridor between Louisville and Cincinnati has been the snow target.
Until CB updates and tells me that we’re out of it, I’m going with the 3-6″ he’s giving us at the moment 🙂 Every other weather site is still giving us that amount.
sue we are going get snow sweetie, id say corbin area 3 -5 inches.
Thanks rolo, for not bursting my snow bubble just yet. 🙂
NORTHERN KY is out as far as bigger snow, all u have to do is look at satlite loop and see that thias think movinf futher south and that is were the snow bands will set up too.
i think if ur north of richnmond u will not see much over a inch or 2 at best.
Oh ye of little faith, hang in there. SE KY still should see a good snowfall from this.
12z GFS Total Liquid through Tues 7 PM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_060l.gif
NAM for same time frame:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p60_060l.gif
That’s still showing a range of me of at least 3-6″ and if snowfall ratios crank up bump that up an inch or two on both ends.
I’ll be updating my blog once the 12z Euro and GEM comes down.
Roloooo, goin’ against the grainoooooo 😉
Wow, that would be sweet if it’s all snow! I’m keeping my fingers crossed!
what about the warm temps Shane its already 32 here with a forecast high of 37?
thats our rolo though lol
I’m not going to rule out a little rain Andy, but most of the models are showing this warm pocket is very shallow… I think this could be one of those cases where we see 32-35 degree snow.
What could be better than watching UK win, hanging out with family AND….tracking a snow storm!
Very light snow falling SE of Paoli, IN right now. Hopefully, the first few flakes of a whole lotta flakes!
29 degrees at my house in corbin right now. would love to have a new update from chris, especially since there seems to be varying views on us here in southern ky. still thinking it will snow here.
Wonder what CB will post:
1. Leave map as is 50%
2. Shift more north (decrease totals) 30%
3. Shift more south (increase totals) 10%
Leaving as is seems to make sense unless a big north shift. The totals already cover some wiggle room.
rolo you are a trip…..I’ll bet you some fried rattlesnake and a mason jar of kentucky’s finest we get atleast 4-6 in NKY!…lol:)
I’m with ya, Lisa. I was wondering where Andy Rose is because it’s still below freezing here. I agree with Shane…I think we’re gonna start out with some 32-35 degree heavy, wet snow.
I didn’t want to be the first to dig into that mess, but now that it’s said…you & me BOTH! Apparantly, all the little whiney-babies in the Ville area are just that-too little to even recall ANY of the previous heavy snowfalls that THEY recieved, and we here in Bardstown got nada…ok-we got a good dumping back in Mar. 08-but lest they forget: Dec 4,’02,Dec 22,’04, (those 2 I am absolutely certain of, because both times, I had to travel to Downtown, and both times, nearly wrecked the car due to their snow plows inability to plow it completely off the exit/on-ramps…WE had 2″ in ’02, 1/2″ ICE on ’04…), and I’m fairly certain they had quite a bit in Feb 06, too, as we had 4″ here and a lot of my folks couldn’t get here from LVille or S. IN because of the snow for my Mom’s viewing/funeral?!, and also all these other “little”(?!) snows they’ve had recently that we always had to deal w/ the dry slotting and/or rain.
I reckon the best we can do is hope it changes course and WE all get the good stuff and hope they have plenty of cheese to go w/ all that whine….
what about freezing rain ?
Funny! Meant 60% for leaving the map as it is.
I know what the models are saying. But Woodford County’s been on the short end of the snow stick so far this winter. We’ll see if this storm can change that.
Not expecting much in Boyle County.
Watching UK, followoing the blog, and actually getting to go to school!! I need to get the students back in my classroom here in Pike County!!
I’m in the Morehead area which is along the 64 corridor since early December I have measured 34 inches of snow.
Possible but it shouldn’t be a big factor.
Jackson’s latest discussion. Hmmm…looking less likely aty least for now. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
The low is in the bootheel of mo right now, and the radar has very little precip on it, so i say if its gonna do anything it better start developing
I sure hope that come tomorrow afternoon we’re not again discussing how I-64 was yet again the fence for a steep cutoff of snow.
Why wait? Already being discussed by the mets 😉
CB shifts his map- game over.
Discussed before, but when CB does not post for a while (regardless of situation), it almost always means a downgrade.
CB can not contain himself with good snow news, but tends to hold off on the bad news. Call it the CB postometer 😉
Shane…….the only thing is, London and Corbin always get the short end as far as upslope snows. And that will dramatically reduce our odds of getting 4″ of snow
IMO, we pick up 1 or 2″ of snow by tuesday
the surface low is in the boothill of mo but the snow maker the upper level low is over iowa, kansas, mo and nebraska border main snows late tonight into monday
Why do you always like to be negative. Its annoying. Say it once and let it go. You repeat, and repeat, and repeat….. like you are trying to get a rise out of people,,,, which you did from me. Congrats
Well it just started snowing in Louisville.
the mesonet site said 32 degrees for Knox County now it says 35
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Jackpot!
No, usually means he is a sleep or working on his real job. Probably didn’t get back to Ashland till real late last night. Let the poor guy get a little shut eye and look at the models.
Oh, and the dome is going down tonight 🙂 Except over Bubba’s house.
Hey, I said “almost” so just like Jim Carry in Dumb and Dumber, “There is still a chance” 😉
obviously according to the models my area is favored but i still believe this should be lexingtons biggest snowfall of the season with 6-8 inches completely possible
New tweet by Chris…leaving maps the same.
he is just pointing out facts as he sees them
Bubba G is not a pessimist he is a realist 🙂
pointing out the facts, over and over and over again. Instigator
Come on Chris give us the bad news because I for one will only give up when I hear it from you.
I was thinking that too (until recent model runs), but CB’s not even done a tweet for an update to contradict the current impressions by mets. Perhaps this will be a first and the post/tweet gap is not a factor in regards to status.
new twitter post from CB–staying strong….
http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/tommy22.jpg
i went up on totals for some mainly because this storm is only clipper on origin, its comprable to a bookworm chemist or physicist from a family of football players who majored in sociology….weird yes i am strange but honestly this low may be polar in origin but upon arrival and tapping gulf i will be more of a gulf low with reguards to total QFP the hcep has me in a .9 in liquid area…with 15 or 20 to 1 ratios that is going to be interesting and with 15 to 1 in lex and .5 to .7 liquid it could easily be lexingtons biggest snow of the season…
My house is right on the line on the map, so that means 3-8″.
I bet that means 3″. We’ll see, I’ll be sure to post totals 🙂
Root for the GFS 😉
http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
i am going to bernie because i want all my blogging buddies in cky to get a humdinger that keeps me in a 6-10 too, 12nam has me at 8-10, like i keep saying i like lexingtons odds which is rare this close to the event
WOW…
That would be great, but the storm looks a little ragged right now… It better get it’s act together…
…
Any snow amounts under 6 inches is a bust.. kentucky is never going get the big one : (
Hey Bernie if it’s not too much trouble could your post that map with the countie lines on it like you did the other day?
It would be our biggest snow in MANY seasons…
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Keep the faith snow lovers!
If anything is instigating anything, it is the models consistently being wrong and getting people’s hope up.
You would think that given the models are consistently wrong for this region, they would review the parameters and math/regression that is used to derive outlook solutions. CB is at the mercy of the models for the core of his great efforts.
When my forecasts at work are wrong for a company with over 3,000 people that are impacted, we correct the models when there are consistent errors that are not data driven due to a systemic events. Models drift due to changes- may it be equipment errors or fixed parameters assumptions.
Song of the day:
Because I’m off work tomorrow…!
By George & Willie:
“Well I gotta get drunk and I sure do dread it Cuz I know just what I’m gonna do”
“I’ll start to spend my money callin’ everybody honey And I’ll wind up singin’ the blues”
“I’ll spend my whole paycheck on some old wreck And Rolo I can name you a few”
“Well I gotta get drunk and I sure do dread it Cuz I know just what I’m gonna do”
LOL…
Like a sow to the wallowing in her mire, so shall I root for this model run. There appears to be a sweet spot in the 10-12″ range right over my house in Garrard! I’ll take it!!
If anything is instigating anything, it is the models consistently being wrong and getting people’s hope up with rare exceptions.
You would think that given the models are consistently wrong for this region, they would review the parameters and math/regression that is used to derive outlook solutions. CB is at the mercy of the models for the core of his great efforts.
When my forecasts at work are wrong for a company with over 3,000 people that are impacted, we correct the models when there are consistent errors that are not biased due to a systemic event. Models drift due to changes- may it be equipment errors or fixed parameters assumptions.
Someone wrote the Low is in the bootheel of Missouri. That’s the surface Low which was only expected to produce some light snow. The Low we are watching is the upper level one in Nebraska. It is expected to negatively tilt and track through central Kentucky. That is the snow maker.
CB must be confident to contradict the direction of the other mets. CB’s batting average is better than most, so could be good. maybe a case where CB is ahead of the curve and picking up things that the NWS and other mets have not registered in forecast changes yet.
Then again, it could be an increase in the north totals and a decrease in the range for locations south of i64. That is what happened for the last event.
Here is- hoping some areas other than the usual suspects are getting an increase too 🙂
Chris says an update is coming mid-afternoon so don’t take that one way or the other just yet. I’ll try and take a nap until then, lol.
Well, for us in Morehead, it looks good right now I “guess” we have gone from 8-10 in the first call for snow, to 3-6, now maybe back up to 6-8 0r 8-10 , kind of hard to tell exactly where that dark blue line hits us. This is one of those look out the window see what are you getting..wake the next morning and see what you ended up with systems it seems to me, there is way too much waffeling, which I understand these things are difficult to pinpoint, but you would think this close in, they could get a little more accurate and “stay the course” 🙂
Oh coffeelady where are you? We need your reassuring voice!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sUL0KCIc48
Cute video of dog playing in 4ft of snow.
OM, I am in the 12-15 range here in SE KY! ANXIOUS ANXIOUS ANXIOUS
Really, what part of SE Ky? And what did you use to determine that? Maybe I want to use that map and up my totals haha!
EVANSVILLE TO BEREA NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BECAUSE OF BETTER RATIOS….HERE THE 850S ON THE NAME HAVE ME IN -9 HTS FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM WHICH IS FIRMLY 20 TO 1 RATIOS
TOTALS MAY BE UNDERDONE DOR RICHMOND POINTS NORTH, TON OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THIS
jackson has south eastern ky under an advisory, we went from warning to an advisory…looks like a bust for eastern ky : (
you have to remember that the heaviest snows are expected to fall from tonight through tomorrow.
sorry for the caps…its safe to say some very impressive isolated totals will occur with this storm.
you make a good point. that would be awesome.
Just updated my snowfall totals map, click my name to get to my blog.
hey tommy where did u get this infor from
Geez Debbie Downers…..Since when is 3-6 inches in SE Ky. a “bust”? That is also what the NWS says at the moment. Before this winter, most of you woe is me’rs would have been crying for a 3-6 inch snow. And Bubba, if we got 3 feet you would be moaning because you didn’t get 3 and a half. It’s always the same ones storm after storm with that whiny junk. Lighten up!
wkrc.com weather forums, they have links to bufkit data and just plain say what models are showing…some of those guys i think pay for model info…very informative
Looks like a moderate band ready to impact Lexington Metro?
I don’t know what you all have seen, but I haven’t seen 1 single salt truck.
haha, no offense Shane, cause I respect you and always check out your snowfall maps as well..but I hope u are off a tad 🙂 Now Morehead and Vanceburg, are in the 3-7’s…that’s going in the WRONG direction 🙂 we are right next to the Ohio river, just a little more the NE side of it I guess.
wow…sounds like someone is not had their happy pill today… please take one asap..folks like you need their meds….lol
Think you may be right. Check out the webcam from Jefferson/Louisville line.
http://www.trimarc.org/images/snapshots/CCTV050.jpg
Rolo what do you see now for Pike or Pikeville??? Then back to the race!!!!!
Sorry-Jefferson/Shelby County line.
Light snow falling in Versailles.(live in Lex, but I’m at work in Vers.)
Jim why aren’t you sharing any of the snow?????
Happy Valentines Day All! Hope you remembered the chocolates for your sweetie! Ok, I just noticed that Bell is out of the WSW and now in an Advisory. Are we going to miss this for the most part?
I agree, but suggest we should be on the high end. I just have a feeling. Could just be my drinking a regular Pepsi instead of diet, but I still have a feeling.
I am using the Bernie-ometer, since if Berea gets some white stuff early, that could be a good sign for all and suggest a lot to be on the high end of the snow results.
Thanks Shane I hope you are right for eastern ky I am in Pikeville I am always the fence on the fence lol its true
Light snow flurries in SE Lexington. Trying to push them your way Bubba.
Haha, thanks Bubba, hope we are right! and maybe you are just agreeing with me, not because you are drinking regular pepsi, but maybe what you are mixing with the pepsi? LOL..trust me, Jim is much better with coke..than pepsi
Seriously, I think they will have to up our totals up this way before it’s said and done..last snow, ended up with close to 9 inches, when it was a 4-6 thing..it was the wrap around snows that really put the snow down!
Thats funny.. I was gonna use the Bubba-ometer!!! lol 😀
Forecast for Berea is 4-5″ so Richmond should get more snow love! 😉
On a bad note.. 43.3 in Berea, well underplayed temps for my backyard! 🙁
Believe it or not, a lot of areas are low on salt, due previous results and the NE needing it (though what good in three feet of snow I will never know). Even though a lot of areas got just a few inches of snow for the past events, still takes the same salt.
Most heavy salt truck action will probably not happen now until the stuff is actually falling and a forecast is deemed “valid”.
only winter weather advisory now for my part of the world, 2-5 inches.
oops.. Bernie 😉
Fat snow flakes starting to fall in Lexington.
6-12 for louisville.
34 here- that is a big difference for the distance. Warm air sneaking up from the south????
R_A_I_N then some snow later i’m in the same boat as you marilee
1-3 in bwg?? wku needs more than that bufkit has us good for 2-3 then another 1/2. just kidding!!
is going from winter storm watch, to a winter weather advisory a downgrade? i’m not weather intelligent!! thanks..:)
Mitch what are you talking about lol?????
WOW that could be the dividing line for the heavier snow.. I had to double check mine, its right on 43.0.. not sure if I accidentally saw 43.3.. which won’t make much difference for me! lol 😉
I feel downgraded what about you lol??I am like Marsha I will keep the faith till Chris says different!!!!!
winter weather advisory for snow i should have said..
Lexington showing falling temps, rising dew point and rising humidity. Can someone smarter than me confirm that is the trend we want to see continue.
thats heaven on earth
Yep, checked again- 34 and snow that was left over, still hanging on. Very steady, north westerly breeze ATM.
only made it to 37 here according to the Meseonet site maybe Bernie lite a ciggy to close to this thermometer 😉
39 and sunny in Pikeville oh no lol
Waiting on my big fat flakes to start falling in Jessamine county. Bring it on!
LOL! Bubba has jenxed my weather center!!! It’s ok.. I’m hoping this is a Richmond/Lexington snow love! 😉
It is snowing nicely in Southwest Lexington right now. Best flakes I’ve seen this year. Spring is in air though, I could smell it when I was running today.
Hey everyone. I’m not new to the blog, but this is my first time commenting. Chris is one heck of a meteorologist and I trust him more than any other local met.
My question is based on what you guys and Chris have been talking about, do you see the Greenup Co. / Ashland area still picking up 4-8 in? As a snow lover, I’m looking for the high end of that spectrum, but I’d like to know what you think.
http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_111HR.gif
Crystal I trying to wait on Chris but I’m starting to think we may be downgraded soon I hope Chris gives us some news soon good or bad….
Steady snow in SE Lexington (Richmond Road) for about 20 minutes now. Radar looks like a snow line is developing right over us. Still have around 2 inches on the ground. Holiday tomorrow. This could be fun:)
Flurries for about a half hour or so in NW LEX.
Yeah I’m betting against BUFKIT in BWG, I’m worried about a little dry slotting possibly cutting back on totals to the west.
Bubba.. did you turn the fan on and pointed it my way!? 41.9 now! Keep it up its working!!! LOL! 🙂
OK SOME ONE PLEASE LOOK AT THIS LATEST GFS RUN AND TELL ME WHY ONLY A WWA… I AM IN HARLAN COUNTY IN SE KY WHERE THIS THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECASTING 8+ INCHES
http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_111HR.gif
METs lean more on the NAM then they do the GFS within the 48HR range.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Nothing here and you are about twelve miles from me (as the crow flies). Why does this not surprise me? 😉
That is a crazy difference. I must also suggest the smoking theory 😉
Well, twelve miles away it is apparently snowing, so maybe the KY river is the guardrail 😉
Where are you at? The radar snow line is pretty thin.
Funny thing though, we are around 30 degrees but the snow isn’t sticking to anything that isn’t already snow covered (the grassy areas). The snow is evaporating from cleared concrete areas and roadways.
LOL! BIG difference in 10 miles.. but the mesonet says 35, so I’ll go with that one!
Besides.. the smoking theory doesn’t apply here.. wireless reader from the thermometer! 😉
Snowing hard in the Moreland area of Hustonville(Lincoln County).
ok we ALL have to like this http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
Curious on CB’s new map. Current average is 6″ north – NE, 4.5″ mid section and 1.5″ for extreme west.
The last time CB said he was leaving the map as is, there was actually a 2″ decrease of the average for most of us and an increase to the north and NE 😉
Keep an eye out! 😉
A decent light snow now. Not accumulating.
Afternoon, all, and Happy valentine/s Day! Hope you and your sweeties have had a good day! It started spitting snow here when we were ont he way home fron church. Had a quick errand to run after we ate, and the snow is still coing down, although it is light. But it is all snow.
Saw where we had been downgraded to a WAA, but our forecast itself, is caling for a total of 4-7 inches overall….not sure I understand that, but I will run withit for now. Still think WSW should have been left in place, at least for now.
I am sure Chris will have a good handle on it when he posts a mid afternoon update. but I really do hope it is soon…
will southerly shift increase seky totals? and if so, is that a possability at this point? thanks…
Starting to get some flakes here in Frankfort
OK, Why is there such a huge gap between NAM totals and GFS totals. GFS looked like Heaven, NAM looked like you know what???? GFS is calling for 10-12 inches in my neck of the woods in Harlan County, NAM 1″ or less???
Our temp is holding steady at 34. Just checked it. Been there for about 4 hours now. We did see the sun for about an hour or so this morning, but that was just after sunrise, between 7:15 and 8:45. by the time I left for church, it was already starting to get cloudy, Have not seent he sun peeking back out since then. Still have light snow falling here…biger flakes than before,
If I squint REAL hard out the window I see an occasional flake here in N.Madison County (about 1/2 mile past the river). Family in south Lexington said it was snowing pretty steadily there
The entire state is at or above freezing..as advertised for days by the NAM and GFS models. Obviously this will cut down on acculations some. We’ll have to see if we stay above freezing until Monday early morning like the models were indicating, or if we actually go colder (which is unlikely).
Just saw seven random snowflakes hovering in the air here at Clay’s Ferry….guess they were trying to decide to stay or blow!
Starting to see a few flurries flying in north Madison county @ exit 97 at clays ferry. It is still 35 degrees though. Gonna have to cool down a bit.
Don’t worry Andy it’s snowing here in pigeon forge tn. At 41 so don’t worry about rain.:)
i am …you just have to come to NKY!!!
Where? I’m at The Bull/Boone’s Trace and am seeing rare flakes…like they are enticing specimens! Are we being teased, tormented or punished?
From the NWS Louisvlle…for what its worth:
FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z TUESDAY…HAVE 7 TO 9
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN IN…6 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KY…AND DOWN TO 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE LATTER LOOKS LIKE WARNING LEVEL SNOWS…HOWEVER THE
THRESHOLD OF 4 INCHES DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR IN A 12-HOUR
PERIOD…BUT RATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Temp at my house is tanking fast. 40.6 ATM.
ALL of the above! 😉
ONE THING TO NOTE… THE 14/12Z GFS INDICATED A LOT OF QPF IN OUR
CUMBERLAND VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AND JUST HOW HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES GET LATER TONIGHT. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY… THEN THE I-75
CORRIDOR COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA (4″ IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD) BY
MONDAY MORNING.
It is 30 in lexington
there are some places below freezing atm maybe the cooled down between your post and mine i dunno
awesome.
Hey, is that near Mockingbird?
http://www.kymesonet.org/ shows 32F in Lexington, my thermometer here in NW LEX shows 34F
Winter Storm Warning For NKY and Cinti area midnight til soemtime tuesday…..
The radar returns indicate the storm is taking shape out to the west of St. Louis. The new update from HPC gives Louisville close to .9 inches by Wednesday. Now, NWS in Louisville is saying 6-8 locally.
Kind of interested to read Jay Cardosi’s blog. He’s much lower with just 3-6 inches locally with spots at 7. He continues to think the 500 mb low will speed right over Louisville. The 12Z data shows the 500 mb low over Etown though.
New tweet from Chris!
Still all virga over western Garrard.
Well, I don’t know what is coming for sure, but I DO know that it is snowing harder, and getting more steady by the minute. Temp is now at 34.4 degrees, (via the wireless thermometer)
Snowing lightly here in Jeffersonville.
Let us hope that CB’s newest tweet does not have a hidden subtitle:
Major winter storm (for north KY) and advisory for everybody else 😉 Joking- I hope.
it’s 35 in southern Laurel County and we have a few snowflakes starting to fall
It has been cloudy most of the day in Morehead, now of course as the radar shows snow moving this way, the sun has come out..Ugggh. Don’t know the temp, my outside therm. blew off the side of the house the last storm and is buried under snow somewhere
I’m a long time lurker in Berea. Thanks for all you do Chris. Was just out with my dogs, and theres a bit of light snow.
A lot of blue on the radar but nothing hitting the ground. Here we go again.
Well we have snow falling here in southern Pulaski County…Flakes are not big, but it is very steady, and getting a little harder as it goes. A few bigger flakes are mixing in from time to time.
Wow! Big snows coming AND the Cards best Syracuse!
Wow TG’s map is depressing 1-3 somerset south
No suprise from JKL either. If you don’t want much snow then head to Pulaski Co. Always the lowest totals in the state. The clip from JKL
THIS WOULD MEAN
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. AND 3 TO
6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA… EXCEPT FOR 2 TO 4 AROUND LAKE
CUMBERLAND.
dont know where your getting your info, but london isnt even above freezing
I’m sure the kids that read this blog don’t really care to read about your alcoholism. I thought this was a weather blog.
Your just flat out wrong. It is holding at 29 where I live in Lexington.
Light Snow in Northern Mercer at the GF’s house!
34* and flurries in clay county…how are we looking for this event???? when can we expect the “most” of our snow?? have models changed to suggest a warning for our area???? thanks in advance!! 🙂
hey i live up here now in ft thomas, gettin ready for another biggin!!!
just doing some model looking and radar watching as this develops…it is my ametur opoinon that far southern ky may totally get missed and that areas that are in the warning area are in fact being under forecasted for snow, i believe this system has more moisture to it than the models realize, the gulf of mexico this season has always prooved plentiful and i believe that this storm may be the DOME BUSTER in the lexington area. meaning 8 or more inches. i am just an ametuer but things seem to be aligning unusually well for alot of ky right now.
Tommy has the 18z models come out
Tommy,do you think we will get this snow here in morgan co?
this just in THE DOME IS DEAD!!! the nws in lousiville….
After 12 years of no 8 inch or bigger snows the latest models and conspiracy blogger colorado tommy believes the dome was laid to rest early this morning after the 0z runs of the nam and gfs. the dome had been suffering in recent winters with a few 5 and 6 inch snows that weakend it severely. the dome is leaving behind its wife WAA and kids FREEZING RAIN MIX and his former HOT FRENCH MISTRESS lady la busted prévisions. the dome will be missed by many middle aged grownups who loved 33 degree rains. yes i am very weird when it comes to snow!!!!!!!!!!! git ir dunnnn
Its been a steady 30 at my house in north lexington. And so has Bluegrass Airport http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=asosklex
Bluegrass Airport has been reporting 30 as well
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=asosklex
New post up peeps
LMAO…TOO FUNNY..LOVE THE ANALOGIES…haha..now if I can just get that 8-10 inch to come just a little farther SE to Rowan co. Morehead…that would be great..but I think it will..those lines are not set in stone as well know
Tommy please share the snow lol
Great information. Thanks for the post.