Good Sunday afternoon everyone. The blog is back to into full update mode now and we are also in full blown Winter Storm Alert mode as a major winter storm moves into the state. This will bring a prolonged period of snow to the region that will result in several inches of the white stuff and for some… the biggest snowfall of the winter so far.
Here is a look at the current warnings and advisories…
The warnings are too far to the north and should be issued several counties farther south across central and eastern Kentucky. I have no idea how Jackson didn’t blanket their entire forecast area with a warning as the upslope flow will likely bring significant snows in itself later Monday through Wednesday.
Light snows are already breaking out in many areas right now and this will continue into the evening. The heaviest snows will be falling later tonight into Monday as a very heavy band of snow moves through much of the area. That band can drop a quick 2″-5″ of snow by itself. Snow showers and squalls will then set in from Monday evening through Tuesday and Wednesday for the entire region and this setup will bring several inches as well.
I have upped by snow totals for most of the area…
I fully expect a few areas to come in a bit above the totals I have on that map.
Winds are going to be a big factor once again from Late Monday through Wednesday and this will create blowing and drifting snows that will enhance to danger to travelers.
You can track this evening’s light snows here…
I will update as needed this evening so be sure to check back. Take care.
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Woohoo! Thanks Chris, I’ll take 4-8″ or even more if I’m really lucky π light snow in Corbin. No rain, yay!!
light snow in garrard now.
Chris, thanks for keeping us updated. My barometer keeps dropping here in Versailles and there has been a light snow off and on since @1:30.
OMG!!!!!!!!!!! CB I <3 YOU!!!!!!! 6 to 10 baby!!!!
Looks good, Chris. 4-8 inches here in Greenup county? I’ll take it, especially if it’s close to the high end of that spectrum!
You guys see anything special happening in the Ashland area?
I’m in very excited mode with this update. Anticipation is killing me! LOVIN’IT!
Interesting TG has 1-3 for my area NWS has 2-6 and Chris has 4-8 hmm
Keep up the wonderful work Chris!
Thanks CB, but please tell me why Madison county is always missed in the warnings? In this case, the warning actually passes us and snakes into Clark. Too funny!
Do you think we will actually get 4-8 inches here in Eastern Kentucky.
oh and almost at 4-8 on Shane’s map as well
GO SHANE AND CHRIS
Thanks for the update Chris you are the best.
How does Madison seem to always be the cutoff? In this case, the warning actually passes us and dips into Clark.
What did Madison do to slight the snow godz? π
That rain the NWS forecast for us is white and floating through the air :)….Thanks Chris for cutting through the worry and whining LOL! Let ‘er RIP!
go cb and shane, but tg doesn’t like snow maybe thats why lol? every met has a different style with their approach.
First time commenting on the site. Still sunny in northern Harrison County.
No, we all just follow chris and his blog because he never gets the forecast right… The reason this blog is so popular is because Chris is the most accurate forecaster!
Interesting, CB and the local NWS office agree this time! Write this down! π
I’m going with 4-6″ here in the Frankfort/Lawrenceburg area…and only because the ratio may go higher than 10:1 for a while in the morning.
Light on/off flurries on the Anderson/Mercer County Line. Temp is 32.6, was up to 34.2 earlier for the daily high.
Thanks Chris! Clouds moving in to EKY as indicated by the radar. We’ve already seen this winter how the upslope snow can slip up on the NWS, when CB was all over it.
what are you saying for SE KY a miss or is Chris and Shane close to what you are thinking atm ?
Hmm, well still the 4-8 zone, but the Red line, of 6 to 10 is a lot closer, just a little more SE and I’m there! But I think we will get there anyway…those lines obviously can be blurred π get me to the 10 in Mo’head.
i am more with cb shane and tg, in that order
i believe se ky does good, south central is the shaft
has any 18z models been posted
Thanks Chris! WooHoo!!
Was out earlier (in Lexington) and there were huge flakes floating from the sky for over an hour! It was beautiful and quickly covered cars and the ground, but melted pretty quickly. Has tapered off now, but can’t wait for it to start back up again….
18z nam was good for all but south central ky
Hey, fellow Madison countians’, is it just me, or does the warning pass us and then dip down to the next counties? If all counties around us were in the warning and we were not, I would be paranoid π
Good to have you on here it gets a little scarey on here sometimes but most everybody on here is great and as we all know Chris is the best….
Flurries just started in Bath Co. I can’t believe we weren’t covered on the radar for 4 hours before we saw the first flalke. Just from that I think we might get whopper!!!!!
Andy- what is your area?
P.S. Everyone should think about posting that when they make a localized comment. It is too hard to keep up with where everyone is lol.
Still sunny in NW Harrison County, but the clouds are on the horizon!
Wxman…what are you seeing now that makes you more optimistic for a good snow, than you were thinking a day or so ago? I like it when all of you experts start to agree!!
keep up the good work buddy!
I noticed that too. That’s why I asked Andy where he is- the NWS map doesn’t look very different from Chris’s current map.
Why are we getting freezing rain in Woodford Co.?! I don’t like the trend I’m seeing – way too much green starting to show up on the radar.
Here come the clouds!
FWIW:
I agree with CB on this and the warning should be lower. This system has all the trimmings of an over-performer. Hope it pans out π
Who are you, and what have you done with BubbaG? Imposter! π
Boyle County- 35* Flurries and light snow since 3pm………
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
Just by the forecast amounts, the warnings should go all the way to the KY/TN, except for the BWG area. Not sure why those areas aren’t in the warnings, unless it is due to the extended nature of the snowfall not reaching the necessary criteria during any given period of time.
Say what??? Am I reading this right? Come on who is posting under Bubba’s name? lol……..
bubba have you left the dark side? snow is better anyway!!!
Knox County
Very rare for me to fall in line, but ingredients are in place, folks. Think pie! π
WINTER STORM WARNING DEFINITION:
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS FOUR OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR IN A 12-HOUR PERIOD.
Or six or more in a 24-hour period, correct?
LMK says something to that effect in their forecast discussion. Here is an excerpt:
FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z TUESDAY…HAVE 7 TO 9
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN IN…6 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KY…AND DOWN TO 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE LATTER LOOKS LIKE WARNING LEVEL SNOWS…HOWEVER THE
THRESHOLD OF 4 INCHES DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR IN A 12-HOUR
PERIOD…BUT RATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Exactly
If Lexington receives what is forecast (or any amount greater than 4.3 inches) it will be the snowiest season since 1995-1996. That’s longer than even the dome has been around π
Our Bubba he’s come to our side we love ya BubbaG…
Here in Eastern Rowan Co. skies are partly cloudy and temp. is 34 degrees.
Leaving g.burg head’n home snow and 40 here
just dreary looking close to the Knox/Bell county line.No snow in sight.35 degrees
Nothing here in Perry Co. so far although sunny skies have given way to clouds. It might start out as rain here since temps seem pretty warm.
By the way, U of L won a game today.
Thanks Chris for the update! I think this storm is going to eat its cheerios and wheaties!
WWA popping up more to the south. I have a gut feeling this is one of them storms that says “SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SURPRISE!” as the infamous Gomer Pyle always said! π
As another INFAMOUS saying from our very own beloved Bubba.. this has the makings of a 50% overachiever and 50% underachiever! LOL! π
Bubba.. I think the sun angle manipulated my thermometer earlier, the only thing I can think of. I’m sitting at 36.9.
18z NAM & 18z GFS don’t look too shabby for CKY or EKY! π
Pie = good.
Thanks Chris! Its snowing lightly here at the Woodford Co. / Franklin Co. line. I can see the “dome” on the radar! π
The radar is filling in nicely so now all we need to watch for is the turn to the east for the 500 mb low. I think the snowfall rates are going to have to be quite high in order for Louisville to end up with 6-8. The point and click forecast for my portion of Jefferson county is 9 inches. I just don’t see that much, but 5-6 seems like a good bet. I’m not taking about what might come tomorrow night or Tuesday though, just the initial wave.
Boyle County- Light snow slowly beginning to accumulate 34*
Bernie can you post that model?
Nothing yet here north of Hazard.
Bernie alot of those maps are hard to understand for me.
18z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_sl8_m_loop.shtml
18z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/ten_m_loop.shtml
CHRIS MERCER
Snowiest since 1996????? R u forgetting the FEB 98 storm. I know we had a good 20 inches in ONE storm from that. I remember the blizzard lasted for 18 hours, but then light snows continued for a couple of days after that. I never could get an accurate storm total for Lexington from that storm. I do know that walking across the neighbors house to borrow their shovel and snow was up to my waist. It had also drifted over the privacy fence above the satellite dish. I think it had to be 20 inches.
Me too!! but I always have “wishful thinking” til Chris updates! π
Thank you Bernie but I have no clue how to read that I thought it was the color map that show the snow amount but thasnks for posting them….
I hate seeing Chris, the NWS, and others so bullish on this snow. Usually means a bust.
Oh my don’t say that word ‘BUST’quit that’s a dirty word on here…lol
Ahhh, ambient temperature distorted your reading- THAT’s the ticket π
Just thing “pie” and it should be alright π Mmmm pie π
Um……MichaelT
I assure you it WONT be a bust….I can see it now…..HVAC guy here tomorrow afternoon working on unit outside and pushing snow out of the way of the unit..(if he shows up at all)
Look up at the radar! It’s clearly showing the dome!!!
SSSHhHHh….the snow gods will hear you.
That’s right jenn we must be quite.
ok its the biggin folks!!!!! powpow!!!
Chris, You’re the man! I have full confidence in your forecasts. That’s why I headed home from Charleston before the snow starts. I’m so addicted to this blog and your expertise that I just had to pull out the cell and check your update. Otherwise, I wouldn’t have made it home. LOL Send us some of that lovin’ snow to KY tonight.
Check it out
1997-1998 had 19.6 inches
1995-1996 had 31.4 inches
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/lexington_cli_pdf/seasonal_av_temp_total_precip_total_snow_lex.pdf
The Feb 1998 storm was 17 inches, and it was about all she wrote for that whole season
Patty….maybe it’s just a donut!
Very light snow in Berea
A few flurries in Pulaski right now and 33 degrees.
Low placement looks good, it’s centered near Paducah right now. Should track right along the TN/KY border so this should be a good snow for a lot of folks, hang in there folks it will get going later tonight.
Got caught in moderation, but everything is looking right on track.
I hope so Melissa! I’ve had enough of thoses dry slots! LOL!
Shane I have never been in moderation…
thanks shane
Ahhh, ambient temperature distorted your reading- THAT’s the ticket π
Just thing “pie” and it should be alright π Mmmm pie π
Moderation when I try to reply to people’s posts. Light snow in north Richmond. 29 degrees. Perhaps a better word is “slight” snow.
Shane,Mitch,WXman all you guys need a big thanks you all are a big help on this blog because we all know Chris cannot be here all the time that’s why this blog is so special it help a lot of people……
I am hearing about snow chances next weekend.
And eveyone that post the models there is just so many people that put there time in this blog its hard to name them all…..
Bring on the snow! I hope this storm is a overachiever : )
this thing diving south, now is it going to eat its wheaties or not, it better to see those snowfalls that are being given.
I myself dont see the HIGH TOTALS, I go more with the low end and lower. I eat crow but except for upslope i dont see central or nothern ky getting anywhere near 6 inches.
now the upslope might give SE E some ok totals like 4 or 5.
Hey Chris Mercer
Thanks for that link! I have looked for that data for a long time. I bookmarked it. 17 inches from the storm in 1998. Sounds wrong to me. I guess when you have that much it’s hard to tell whether it’s 17 or 20 with all the blowing that went on. Looking on that list, Lexington had a LOT of 20plus and 30 plus and several 40 plus winters. I did notice that there were stretches (like we’re in now) even way back then, that there were several years with 15 or less, in some cased ten or less.
Bubba…….You might wanna go look at the link Chris posted …..It looks like we have went through stretches like this before.
Me neither Rolo! I still excited to see anything these days though.
Tommy it’s just snow that’s it calm down, need a Xanax??
I’ve been teeling you Bubba, it’s not Madison county, it’s you. π
Snow in northern Clay at the moment. The flakes are nice and fluffy.
No Problem!
I hope we bust through that 1995-1996 total before the winter is over.
30 inches seems to be the marking point for a snowy winter
We have had several wimpy, rainy winters, with winter 94/95 being one of them. The issue is a one or two day event that has 8 or more inches. Last for c ky is 1998 and per local met discussion, this longest gap. Even local mets mention the dome.
Talking about this now may be bad karma for the current event….. Just walk away slowly…..;)
Also you need to go back to TAFKABG. That seemed to work. π
Perhaps you are jaded now, since this event has more potential than the others you went into a yeehahh coma over;)
Not that it will pan out for sure, but cold air and moisture are more aligned for this event- ATM.
where is everyone from, I’m in the pike county area, new to the site…i love snow!
Chris’s maps, the NWS maps, and all the mets that I’ve seen are forecasting totals not just the first wave.
I live in mingo co wv
Never underestimate the power of money- they want yours- π Might make it, even with a good snow.
I’m from Morgan Co….
I know the current snow storm is not even here yet, but I was looking ahead on the GFS and it has a couple of storms to watch. One next Sat. and another one the Fri. after that. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_150m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_276m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_288m.gif Gonna be an interesting rest of Feb. I love it, but will be ready for spring after this month, lol.
Hey guys I made a place for us to chat about the snow and upcoming model runs π
I’ll also be on ustream live for my usual audience π
http://www.ekywx.com
I’m in Nelson Co/Bardstown. A little west of everyone else here, but no matter-everyone here is really nice and you’re always welcome!:)
I like snow, too, but being where I am, I am always “straddling the fence” when it comes to anything over 2-3″ snow…but we sure are over-achievers here when it comes to ice and/or rain/ and/or NOTHING while everyone else basks in half a foot or more!!! LOL!!:)
If we don’t get anything more than that here this storm, I am turning to the Dark Side, going tornado chasing (ugghh) or moving to Barrow, AK…but most likely I will just be here listening to everyone else brag about their immense snowfall…as per the usual!;)
Snowing in Clay County. My driveway is already getting white again. Chris you need to tell the weather service out of Jackson to put Southeastern and Eastern Ky. into winter storm warning also. The other stations had us in 4-8, the same as Lexington. Eastern Ky was in 6-8, but no Winter Storm Warning. What is up with that?Let it snow!!!!!!!!!!
I agree with you BubbaG. But what else can we expect from ole Rolo. He’s a flip-flopper, told you so’er’, so he can’t lose π
the NWS flip flopped as we were under a winterstorm watch then pulled that in favor of an advisory
Well, here in Woodford we are at the Heart of the Snowdome. I have decided that this upcoming snow is the last of this winter that I’m looking forward to. Beyond that, I am ready for Spring. Winter has been long enough.
Thanks Marsha and Debbie for letting me know where u r from…. i adore snow, love being outside in it..
It’s snowing in Clay County!!!!!
Can anyone who knows about these things comment on the radar imagery for this storm. To me, a very UNtrained eye, there does not look to be sufficient moisture for the colossal snow we are anticipating. Am I just seeing it wrong? I sure hope so! π
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default®ion=BWG&animate=true
Snowing lightly in Georgetown. Nothing covered yet. Bring on the 4-8 inches.
We’re fine… this thing is starting to pull in moisture from the gulf… we’re good to go :D.
right on the money shane i have snow albeit light but its snow and 35 π
I noticed that, as well, Bill, BUT!?- NEVER UNDERESTIMATE!!!;)
I did that back in ’94….We are in Kentucky…I’ve lived for 47 yrs. now(very luckily), and I have noticed that once you hit the hay (i.e.”go to bed”), you often wake up to a pretty nice surprise?! Our biggest snowfall’s always come during the “wee hours”!;)
My fave story (in short..lol..) is Jan 16, ’94..HUGE snowstorm predicted a week out(here in the L-Ville area, at least) On the late afternoon of the 15th, they scrolled across the NFL game, “An inch or less for the LVille Metro”. I don’t buy much @ the grocery. I awaken @3am…it’s “spitting” snow..get up @ 5:30am for work, hear them on WHAS radio how everything is “SHUT DOWN”?!- I’m in Bardstown..we’re having what I assume is a THUNDERSTORM(lightning, the whole bit) I’m pretty perturbed…let my Doberman’s outside, and we’ve got like 16″ and THUNDERSNOW!!!! Who woulda THOUGHT??! (I didn’t get to work for a week…that was the ‘upside’ for me..my hubby ran his beloved ‘Monte’ into a snowbank and tore out his Radiator…that was also an ‘upside’ for me, because I could laugh @ him…)
Boyle County- 32-33* A coating…Presently roads fine but wet..old salt must still be workin cause no trucks were seen when I went to dinner.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen CKY in the bullseye like this….
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
WOW..!!!! I hope that verifies….
…
yea but all the xananax in the world wudnt do me no good
A Winter Weather Advisory is a step up from a Watch…..A Winter Storm Warning is a step up above an Advisory.
whooo hoooo, I’m in the 8-10 on that model!!! Hope it comes true!!
Nothing in Ashland… yet. π
Dome buster baby!
26 and dropping here…this ULL looks like a comma on the satellite, inland tropical storm?
I’ve been bad..I emailed my mom a little ago and told her that the mets upgraded the snow totals to 20 to 25 inches for eastern ky, Then i tried to call her to tell her i was just teasing her.. My dad said she left for Food city to buy milk and bread…lol
Could we see a Bubba buster? Even though it’s only one run, it’s odd to see a bullseye over Madison and other areas of cky. There are some flurries currently here in south Madison.
so you get more snow from a watch than an advisory and a advisory is a step up ?
their thinkin isn’t right i always thought people would pay more attention to a “Storm Watch” than a “Winter Weather Advisory” since they had an WWA for 4-9 and when they cut their totals down to 2-6 they went with advisory
lol what part of pike co do you live in blonde snow bunny I may need to run to the store also, lol
was watching the race earlier sorry i wasn’t payin attention
Yeah, Tommy, the circulation is very well defined. I am certainly not an expert, but do you see the beginnings of any gulf moisture starting to stream northward on the latest water vapor imagery?
I like that too Vinny!! That would put 6″ in my back yard in Pulaski Co.
A Winter Storm Watch is just that. A Watch. It means that it COULD happen. Just like a tornado watch means you COULD have a tornado.
HA! I will believe it when I see it!
i live in downtown area and where do u live
I always looked at it as a Watch meant it was possible, an Advisory meant it was probable and a Warning meant it was imminent.
Just a mile below WILLIAMSON WV— I hope you don’t get in trouble with the mother. lol
There is a stream of moisture seen on radar into the GOM.
I’m betting she has caused a panic at food city, she has a big mouth, im sure she has told everyone in the store that we are getting 20 inches..lol
Correction…that is the cold front that extends to the GOM.
Well we’ve got a wet snow falling. Its still 31 outside so we’re lucky its even sticking. I still continue to think we’ll see less accumulation than the other forecasts out there….but we should all wake up to a white ground. Probably will lean toward the low side of my 4-6″ call for this area.
LOL Food City will be empty in a few hours. But I would love to see that much snow. I need to get to cosmo one day this week or my ladies will be coloring their own hair. LOL
The NWS does need to develope a more simplified winter weather warning method because very few people actually know the criteria they use
Ummm..I believe that a WWA is a step BELOW a WSW…precip totals are only 1-3″..a WS Watch is a step above a WWA, and a WS Warning is above the “Watch” (without going into all the specs of the whole “4”+ in 24 hours or whatever…)
Good Evening Gang!!..just got home from a weekend getaway to the smokies, where it snowed..and its snowed over there most of the day today, and I actually drove in falling snow all the way home. Coming over the mnt. at norris lake on OLD 25/33 it was snowing hard enough to coat the ground…Nothing like that here in Barbourville just yet but it is snowing needless to say…
But as the storm approaches Ky, it still seems ‘not so wide’. It looks to be moving very fast also. Is it filling in at rates that are promising for large snows? Will it fill in in time to be large over Ky?
I know Wal-Mart was crazy. I just came from there, and it was a madhouse.
Have to share this with all my fellow snow-lovers:
On the way home from my son’s home (Paintsville), I passed a church
that had this in the marquee:
“If you are the one who keeps praying for all this snow, please stop it!”
I just had to laugh.
boy this is a giddy-up and go, robust forecast…LOL….
Knox co….
Tonight…A chance of snow or rain in the evening…then snow overnight…possibly heavy at times. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Light winds…becoming south at 5 to 10 mph late. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Presidents Day…Periods of snow…heavy at times early. Areas of blowing snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
Monday Night…Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Total snow accumulation 3 to 6 inches. Lows in the upper teens. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent
This was on a church marquee in Paintsville today:
“If you are the one who keeps praying for all this snow, please stop it!”
I will say though…the fact that there is no relief in sight is amazing. That we have been generally wetter and colder than average since April is no small feat. This is a wild climate swing that I haven’t seen ever before.
winter is not over, so maybe we will..lol
thanks shane you rock right alone with chris bailey. oh by the way i live in lily.
That’s real funny unless mom get the paddle out.
Louisville NWS is mentioning lowering totals just south of the river. Discussed the dry slot moving into the area and the 500 mb low moving just south of Louisville.
LOL…thats pretty good…
I noticed WSWarnings even in northern Alabama, and Georgia AGAIN!!..for 3-4″ of snow…
I was looking at the radar and have been noticing something suspicious…by how much will they lower the totals?
Yet…
Looks like these initial flurries are gonna miss us. I like what’s headed our way, though.
Latest NWS discussion absolutely slaughters hope for Lexington area.
Guess I’ll just turn off the PC and hope for the best.
Unless this thing decides to intensify any at all overnight, I am just not seeing any of the totals given…??! Looks to me like Central IN will bear the brunt of this…and even that isn’t looking that promising to me @ this moment. Things have a way of coordinating and getting it’s stuff together late @ night, yes, but….??!
JKL states this
ONE THING TO NOTE… THE 14/12Z GFS INDICATED A LOT OF QPF IN OUR
CUMBERLAND VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AND JUST HOW HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES GET LATER TONIGHT. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY… THEN THE I-75
CORRIDOR COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA (4″ IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD) BY
MONDAY MORNING.
Ok bloggers–I have been assured since last week that there will be snow in London on Monday–I even went as far as to make an appt. in Lex. as I knew there would be no school–I am getting worried–what do you need to tell me? thanks! I love u guys!
Wow, this is looking good. Gulf moisture is moving up into WKY and heading for Lexington, dry slot head into south central ky, and deep moisture by St. Louis will dive into Lex. Bye, Bye Dome π
I thought it was good, too, Tim. Glad you had a safe trip.
I saw those warnings…I still think we are going to get a good snow out of this…all of us.
how do i put my snow map on here for everyone to see it? i made it on paint
Snow in Richmond is the pretty wimpy ATM. In fact, it is more like light “snleet” rather than snow. I might pull a Rolo here. Is this system losing intensity as it passes into KY? I am used to that, but thought this one had a very good shot.
We might be on the way low side, rather than the high of CB’s map. Hope my system reading skills are worse than normal (normal for me is bad).
Not sure what any of the rest of you are thinking, but the way I am looking at it is that I don’t think we’re going to get anywhere near the totals given out…Central IN is looking pretty good, what with the stuff coming almost due East out of the STL/E. MO area…unless that mess coming out of SW TN evolves into something once over the KY line, I am getting absolutely nothing much out of it.
….:)
0Z NAM is definitely supporting the trend downwards for those in the Lexington area. Wish I hadn’t looked.
People of the blog:
Is it just me, or is the precipitation vanishing as it hits central KY? Not exactly good therapy for ridding my perception of the dome. It apparently does not go down very easy- question now is will it?
Rolo, save me some of whatever you are drinking! π
We’ll end up with a boring 3-4″ around the county so at least in the strictest sense the forecasts will be true.
BTW, the precip so far has been more sleet than snow. Very light snleet, whcih makes sense on the the radar.
Sure hope this pans out, or the darkness will be complete in Darth Bubba’s heart.
Looks like about 3 hrs before the main storm hits CKY…
Calm down folks… This is a slow moving that is drawing in lots of moisture from the gulf.. We’re gonna get a GOOD snow out of this…lol
…
Tim…. I imagine that π is going to be a π once the reality sets in that that means more snow days!! π
I’m inclined to agree with you, Vinny.
I agree with Vinny…slowe mover with a ton of mositure coming from the gulf…6-8 is a safe bet for cky
12 more inches and we will have a foot hear in Corbin………
I wanted to point out that the totals are through TUESDAY!! Please stop being so pessimistic and just enjoy the snow.
Hear-Hear..!
i agree too i was going to post several hours back that we are due a bad run or two, just because one run says only 4 inches and ten others say more doesnt mean, as TG would say, that we should “jump ship” lol, everything is on track, the models are going to flip and flop but the main issue is that for 3 or so days they have agreed on a good snow for lex area and i think that holds true.
For those who are losing it, go look at a national radar loop or water vapor imagery, and relax. This storm is still a few hours away. :0
looks like to me the low in a little south than originally anticipated
Actually Wednesday…lot of time for snow
So looking like the dome’s undefeated streak of going on 13 seasons may continue…if so, bring on spring…
Neil……Didn’t u already have a six inch snow at your house ?
I agree….
Just because the Oz NAM run is off from previous runs doesn’t mean anything. I think we’ve all heard this enough times, especially this winter, but it bears repeating: Do not take any one model run as gospel. I believe TG has even mentioned several times [at least] that the 0z runs can often-times have issues. We’ll know soon enough if it’s going to verify or not.
So, just calm down and let the storm play out before getting all worked up! π
I love this blog, but geeeeshhh. You people that thrash your teeth over you are going to get “the big one” need to relax. This will not be “the big one.” Settle for some snow, if that is your thing. Personally, I can’t wait for that first 70 degree day.
And congrats to the SAINTS….
Well, we had some light snow on the way home from church. The temp is still holding at 33 right now, here at the house. Not sticking yet, escept on rooftops and such. From everything I have seen, looks like it could be a pretty good snowfall for everyone when it is all said and done…..which is Wednesday, as I read it. So, don’t get down and such until it is over!
AFKABubba, if it doesn’t pan out, I wll JOIN you on the dark side! π Here’s hoping NEITHER of us go there! π
The problem is the precipitation that has fed through so far breaks up or merges north as it approaches central KY. How does this not suggest the system is setting up to be mainly an north I64 special?
I thought this was our chance to bust the d word, but we may be lucky to hit the lower map range. Current pattern is not at all what I expected. Just look at the flow on the radar trend. Looks like we are the slot and the main snow is north.
I was positive about this system just a few hours ago, but so far I have been wrong in what I thought it would do.
I welcome any rebuttal π
Where Oh Where is My Snowflakes Tonight?
When is this suppose to start??? Anyone know??? How bout a guess???
Did anyone notice the precipitation rolling out of Minnesota? It looks …interesting as it seems like it is being pulled into our Low…
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true
Yes, but one 6 incher does not a dome-buster make! π To me anything under 10 inches doesn’t qualify as a major snow (high end moderate, sure), so we haven’t had one of those since 1998!
The problem is it has become like Lucy pulling the football away just as Charlie Brown is about to kick the ball. Regardless of the set-up, central KY always has the ball pulled away. For a few times, not so bad, but a baker’s dozen of winters? The consistency of it accumulates to absurdity.
This could have been a “big snow” if hit the upper map range. Seemed the stars were aligning finally. I agree at this point- it will now probably not be “a big one”.
bubba lol you make this blog interesting!! i mean that in a good way too!!! lets look on the bright side here we are in mid february and have not had any ice!!!
The majority though is supposed to be tonight and the early morning (the heavy stuff).
Looks to be part of the Tues.-Weds. part of this storm, but don’t tell anyone. Optimism could break out, and that would cause pandemonium. π
The storm is eating its wheaties, getting ready to knock Lexington around a little bit! Bringing GULF juice with it. Probably “wishful thinking” π
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html
BEFORE
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/wwd/radnat/NATRAD_01.gif?2508989
AFTER (24HRS LATER)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/wwd/radnat/NATRAD_24.gif?5957582
The dome isn’t just responsible for ensuring we don’t get a major snow, but for every time it looks like we are gonna get a decent snow, and we end up getting less than forecast (which is generally better than 90% of the time).
clay county is in 4-8 by cb’s map, can we expect to be on the low or high end??any thoughts…i had those ranges, cause it can be high, low, or somewhere in between…love 2 hear your thoughts, cause i am weather forcasting ignorant….thanks in advance..:P
When is Chris’ update? I’m hanging on till then…
Problem is, that there appears to be a MAJOR dry slot on the south side of the low with a bead drawn on the heart of the snowdome…
Agreed! Just would like a rebuttal to shoot down my points π
1. My concern is the current pattern of the initial system flow.
2. The heavy part of the system was supposed to be tonight and early morning.
People rightly mention this is through to Wednesday- but the main play of the event will not be. No heavy stuff tonight and we will be lucky to hit the low end of the snow map.
Rebuttal- please! π
I think it looks good for you in clay to be on the upper end..6 inches at least! π
HEY KEEP HOPE ALIVE GUYS! snow, big or little causes me a whole host of problems, from work to personal, but I love it, so if we are gonna get snow, I always want the most out of it..that doesn’t happen that often, but man when it does, it is sweet! I’m still hoping that we hit the 10 inches, that we are NOT forecast to get haha..night
..:)
….:(
My standard is lower now- eight inches of snow will void the d word for me. Even if falls over three days π
WXman, Mitch, Shane, or anyone,
What are your thoughts on the rain that is working its way into southern Ky? Do you think temps will stay at or just above freezing?
I don’t see SCKY getting much out of this I have put to much hope in weather forecasting and nothing ever seems to pan out only when it rains of course and their dead on
Hmm…temp rising slowly here on the Anderson/Mercer County Line..back up to 31.0
Looks like Cold Front is through West KY..temps falling into Upper 20s there.
Dry Slot will make/break this snowfall.
I’ll say this..looking bad in South Central KY..Warm Temps + Dry Slot
If “the big one” is what you want, just stop pining away on this blog. The “big one” will come when you least expect it.
History supports my statement.
Go Cats! Go April!!
Would be cool! Still waiting on a rebuttal of my concerns. I am not seeing what I expected so far (in regards to what is coming from the SW) so was hoping for one of our resident mets to explain why I am wrong π
Still plenty of night, just wish the systems’ liver would distribute the Wheatie’s nutrients to its heart and get pumping π
Hmmmm…all that Guld moisture and this storm brings us a dry slot. I’ll be happy with a few flakes, really, but I was hoping to break in a new snow shovel!
Light snow in Floyd County.
But as CB said, the heavy snow is supposed to be tonight π
Welp, hittin’ the rack folks! If I wake up and there is several inches of snow and still coming down, due to the expected heavy stuff tonight- great! Means upper end of current the snow map is possible π
If there is not several inches and light snow, most of us south of 64 will probably be on the low end.
Like tommy said- at least it is not ice π
Look at those temps spiking across Southern Kentucky…this rain/snow line should be interesting to watch
http://www.kymesonet.org/index.html
Moderation…
Good night!
If several inches off snow in the morning and still coming down- great! π
If an inch or so and barely coming down- at least it is not ice! π
I’m no expert, but how can there be a dry slot when the storm is not even here yet? Anybody?
jim caldwell of wymt just updated is blog…. If only i lived in northern ky.. Northern ky and above looks like the sweet spot
but again, he has me in the 6-10, not to bad, but Southern Ohio is going be slammed with snow : )
If you can’t trust CB, who can you trust?
waa has warmed bowling green to 36* with rain falling now, yuck. radar returns don’t look impressive.
Mitch do you think Morgan Co will see rain?
Well…..hopefully we will all wake up to a big coating of SNOW, but looking at the radar, I think thats wishful thinking at this point for CKY. REady for SPRING and 75 degrees if we aren’t going to get the big one.
Mitch do you think Morgan Co will see rain?
Chris sure is quite tonight.
Chris sure is quite tonight.
Chris sure is quite tonight.
Boyle County- 34*..So far this system has behaved exactly as expected…..for Boyle and Mercer counties
Mix right now in Ohio County, one county south of owensboro. We are in winter advisory only. Owensboro is in the warning. Temp is currently 33 degrees.
hate to say this, but there’s going to be some big time busts in regards to southern and south central KY. would not be surprised to wake up to plain ole rain tomorrow am here in London. No big deal, ready for Spring here as I’m tired of the cold rainstorms that February brings.
I agree Russ.
I’m on the Anderson/Mercer Line..31.6 and holding…awaiting first band of moderate snow
Well tne Jackson nws updated and have not changed there forecast so for now I’m going to trust the actual mets. And if they would have saw a change like ppl are saying on here they would have changed there forecast!!
00z NAM basically puts no snow for London and Somerset
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
18 inches in Frankfort winter’s total. Even if we get low end of snow prediction, Plus 20in for the year. SNOW Dome as we have known it for years, is DEAD in Frankfort! YES!!!:) more snow this weekend lets go for 30!
No change from the Louisville NWS either. They last updated at 11:19pm.
Lexington DOME Buster! Congrats to Vinny and ALL the Lexington folks! Here it comes! π
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USKY0721&enlarge=true&animate=true
Anything under 6 is a bust…so pretty much a bust for kentucky, unless u live in Northern ky..
Under 6 a bust….spare me.
00z NAM is a goof every storm. Spare me.
I know people get upset over everysingle modle run when u can clearly look at the radar and see what is coming and the temp in London is much lower than bowling green
What? This is from their 11:43 discussion.
AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OVER NCKY/SRN INDIANA…TRAILING CDFNT WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO WEST AND ANY LIQUID OR MIXED PRECIP TO SNOW. THIS
WILL BE HAPPENING SHORTLY AT BWG. THE SRN HALF OF OUR FA WILL
EXPERIENCE THIS RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
CURTAIL ACCUMS. BASED ON THAT AND ABOVE REASONING…DROPPED SNOW
ACCUMS ACRS OUR ENTIRE FA BY ABOUT AN INCH…BUT LEFT
WARNINGS/ADVISORY AREAS THE SAME.
Who knows what’s going to happen. Despite all the radar trends, the pro’s are still calling for 3-6″ so maybe it will happen.
*cheers* π
Wow. Dropped it a whole inch. Time to pack it in. :p
Yes thats my Opinion, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it!
From a Louisville perspective, I can finaly see how we are expected to receive an extended period of snow. The upper low has dropped into southern Missouri bringing the comma head line south of Louisville’s position.
Unfortunately, but surprisingly, NWS has dropped storm totals around here to 4-7. I said earlier 5-6, so I think 5 is nice bet. It looks like our friends in southern Indiana are in the best spot just as the models showed with the area of .50 QPF.
00z GFS shows alot more snow than the NAM
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Boyle County- 34* moderate granular snow
In Nicholasville I have already had 6″ and 5.5″. A bust I always assumed would be over 6″ of snow. Like a foot is what I would consider a dome bust for the Lexington area. So, I agree 6″ or under would be a bust.
Jake
Yep lol it’s now 4-7 lol all I’m saying is until Chris says the snow is off I’m going to say the snow is on
the 0Z GFS KILLS THE DOME!!!
Beautiful colors. π lol
This thing looks impressive
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
Look how much moisture is getting spun up from the gulf.
chris has a 10 pm update over on wsaz
looks to me the heaviest stuff will be in southern kentucky
Moderate snow in Anderson County for the last 25 minutes!
I might have to agree with you there (sort of). If we get 8 inches (in my back yard, of course) out of this current deal, I will be quite happy!
most impressive ive seen the radar out of any of our storms so far this year
flurries in fort thomas!!!!!!!!!! small and very light but its a comin! even weather channel has me in 6-12!!!
Light snow falling now on Henry Clay Blvd. East side of Lexington
Snowing in Nicholasville! π
Boyle County- 34* light snow
My thoughts and comments http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
Why the sad face? I am in Nicholasville and am very happy!
Jake
Snowing in Madison County – roughly 5 miles NE of Richmond. Sticking nicely to the ground. π
Light snow falling in N. Berea in Madison County.
34.5
Sorry my computer gone crazy tonight….
hey Bernie whats the maps look like are we still in a good range?
Snowing here in Cynthiana…
31.6*
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