Good afternoon, folks. It’s a windy, but gorgeous day across the Commonwealth. It’s the kind of day that pops to mind when you think about the month of March. But, March is also a fickle month and that will be on display this weekend as we track a winter weather maker into the region.
Let’s start with the Thursday night and Friday morning cold front. This looks like a pretty wild little system with gusty winds and some thunder along and ahead of it, and the chance for a few snowflakes behind it…
Cold air then moves in, laying the ground work for a weekend storm system to work from west to east across the Tennessee Valley. The exact track and strength of that low is critical to who gets snow and how much they get.
It’s important to keep in mind we are in the window where the models flip some before trending back to where they were just a few days before. That doesn’t happen with every event, but it’s a noticeable trend over the years.
The current suite of models continues to target the southern half of the state for the greatest chance for snow. Here’s the new GFS…
That’s weaker and farther south than earlier runs, and is now the weakest and farthest south of any computer model. The snowfall map from that particular run…
The Canadian jumped back to the north and is stronger than all its earlier runs. Still, it targets southern Kentucky into Tennessee…
The NAM only goes through Saturday evening, but is the strongest and snowiest of the bunch…
So what have we learned from the early day run of the models? They still like southern Kentucky for the greatest risk for accumulating snow, but vary wildly on how much. Whatever falls will be wet and slushy and will have to overcome a warm ground.
Can this meet my “threat” criteria for parts of the state? Yes. Will it? I will figure that out tonight and Thursday.
By the way, the current trends indicate the potential for accumulating snow for the SEC Tournament in Nashville this weekend. Wildcats fans should take note of this.
Oh and the GFS has this early next week…
I will update things later this evening, so check back. Enjoy the day and take care.
Thanks Chris. Let the fun and guessing games begin! Have a great afternoon all.
Pleaseeeee, let maps go back to hitting us with a smack down; if only for a few days, I want to see some snow. Then I’d be ready for Spring!!
I am going to make a guess that one of two things happens: 1. either the storm weakens (due to the storm for early next week being stronger than earlier estimates) and this storm becomes a dud for everyone or 2) the models do their typical thing and move the storm fifty miles north of the current configuration. I for one am anxious to see the next NAM.
Whatever the case, seems another big miss for the few systems that have been around. Kentucky has been like a meteorological road median for this part of the country.
Please no salt.
To late
Agree Tom
While still skeptical, I will concede that the “chances” for we in southern KY and in TN are indeed looking good but its still 4 days out. This could still move all the way into OH, back into central KY, or it can still move even farther south and head up the coast to give yet another whopper to the northeast and leave us with little to nothing. Too many variables yet.
Seems the more south, the less overall snow due to energy and temps (except the mountains of course). North east none the less should get a pretty decent hit.
North East US.
Yep!
Not going to say that I am not excited, but time and time again, SE KY and TN end up with rain or mix when these storms do their NW shift. On a more positive note about maybe not getting too much of a NW shift would be the fact that the energy is coming from the NW and not out of the Gulf or SW…interesting for sure but not likely to be the next 93 blizzard…way too warm before and after this one. This could be a quick snowman building storm; hope people don’t lose power if the storm actually plays out!
Wait until Friday to know for sure. This blog is wonderful and greatly appreciated, but has taught me to never ever tell my children that snow is coming from early models. One storm either last year or year before we went from predicted 13″ to 3″ in less then 12 hours, so things can change. Will this storm end up being nothing but a southern rain maker and then snow up north coast ? No one knows. Will it move north and slam Indianapolis? Will we get the famous “next week” storm? Tune in later!
*than
After next week’s system, I wonder if we can expect true spring to arrive and stick around.
Nope. Pattern is showing cold for the next few weeks. 40’s-50’s for highs with the occasional 60-65 degree day mixed in but general a colder look.
Any chance of this shifting north?
Latest euro is similar to gfs, slip slipping away from us in SE KY
So a bigger hit for Central KY?
Most of the heavier precip stays south in TN today, the cmc shows a good hit for se ky and has held fast the others were out in lala land till yesterday I’m hoping euro/gfs will come back a little north west as we get closer.
Usually these systems move further north as the storm has been sampled. I have a feeling this one wont. It will be a weak system that stays in Tennessee, with little snow for everyone.
A small storm system means no accumulating snow since the ground temps are so warm. It may look pretty while falling, but none on the ground, unless its roof tops and cars.
I can’t believe I fell for the hype on this weekend system. Especially after our non existent Winter. But the local TV Mets here in WV even posted an accumulation map yesterday. They never do that 5 days out. Just not meant to be this year.
I tried to temper your expectations. The warm air is going wire to wire with it’s streak like the Reds of 1990.
What fooled me was the way too early accumulation map. It won’t happen again. By the way, the GFS has another big storm next Tuesday. Yeah, right.
New NAM came north about fifty miles from my reckoning. Good snow over much of Ky.
NAM usually has a stronger wave/higher temp bias. Take it with a grain of salt.
Stop saying “salt”!
Tom do you have a link?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030818&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=621
Thanks, C.
You get slammed on that map 😀
Here`s hoping. Fingers crossed! 🙂
New TWC forecast now says cloudy and 10% chance….. Not surprised
Michael, The TWC has right us smack on where I live in far western ,ky
As Southern KY resident, I’m cautiously excited!
Well, the new GFS kept the snow to the southern 50 miles of Ky…just like the previous run. No northward adjustment in this run.
The GFS is about 10 miles North on its 18z run. Not a big difference, but at least the Southern trend has stopped, or at least slowed down…. for now.
This may be my one and only time as a teacher to say… please stay well south! These kids only have one day out before spring break and we do not need to have to use it as a make up day :X They’re already going stir crazy enough as it is with having had no snow days and so much rain… let’s just get this show over with!
This one will move NW before said and done. Ohio river to the parkways will be the sweet spot or Ohio River into Southern Indiana.