Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a cold front heading toward the region today, bringing an increase in rain and gusty winds. The main show arrives this weekend as a much stronger storm system takes aim at our part of the world.
Let’s start with today’s opening act. Winds will gusty up and may reach 30mph at times across parts of the state. Rains arrive from west to east, with the greatest concentration coming this afternoon and evening…
Clouds linger into Thursday as a chilly wind kicks in. We may have quite the temperature spread showing up from north to south, with some areas struggling to get beyond the 40-45 degree range.
Our weekend storm starts to come together to our west on Friday, creating gusty winds across Kentucky. The winds and temps climb through Friday night into Saturday morning. Wind gusts may reach 40mph or greater at times.
As the front plows in here early Saturday, heavy rain and low-topped thunderstorms sweep through…
Colder winds then take over, with temps crashing through the day into the overnight. That northwesterly wind on the GFS continues to bring a few flakes into the eastern half of the state…
The GFS Ensembles continue to show the potential for a few flakes in the same areas…
While the operational models do their regular flipping and flopping, the ensembles haven’t budged with the cold shots for Thanksgiving week and beyond…
The same GFS Ensembles show the potential for some flakes to fly over during the same time…
I will drop by for updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
I hope those ensembles hold up, I noticed the Jackson weather service Facebook post this morning showed average temperatures hanging around for this area from the 22nd to the 28th; with the below normal temps to our East & above temps to our West.
I’ve enjoyed seeing them correct their temperature forecasts lately as for the past couple of cool downs they have predicted warmer temps from a week out then have to lower them as we get closer to the fronts moving through. Maybe it will happen again.
No storms systems are diving into the southern plains. This would bring down the colder Arctic air and maybe some decent snows for our area. Don’t see this happening too soon.
Thanks
In Canada, the snow totals are impressive as well as the widespread Arctic air. The Arctic Oscillation must be in the positive phase along with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The snow totals in Greenland top 800 inches and temperatures are near 40 degrees below zero. If these westerlies would just slow down and the AO weakens and the NAO chances to the negative phase, that Arctic air would drop south into Texas giving the lower 48 a good and active winter. Maybe this will happen in late December. Us snow lovers can only hope.
Thanks
Schroeder both the AO and NAO are tanking right now and going very negative. Did you not look these up when you posted?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
He makes stuff up as he goes. If he actually looked stuff up he wouldn’t contradict Bailey so much.
You are right Andy, I am guilty of reporting weather events, from just what I have heard. I am not computer literate, and I am not sure I want to be.
Thanks Jeff, for the information. Good read, and I should have done my homework before posting. I believe this weather pattern can be blamed on the weak La nina or ENSO neutral whatever.
Any thing that might help slow this cold bug that’s going around down. Get cold an stay cold till spring.
I am not getting a good snow model vibe for this winter. Hard for us not to get more than last winter, since we essentially got nothing, but “more” is a relative term. CB’s outlook should be interesting, since he is a met and I have not slept in a Holiday Inn Express. Well, not recently.
We had a really heavy frost this morning in Raceland. We’ve had a few light touches of frost up till now. Looking forward to how this weekend and next week play out! Thanks for keeping us updated, Chris!
I just seen a map this morning on Yahoo and it showed most of the United States being warmer than normal through this winter. The only below normal places were in the northwest. Doesn’t mean it will happen just what the map showed.
NOAA shows the same along with the Farmers Almanac.
If you’re putting together a forecast using Yahoo weather and the Farmer’s Almanac then you are going to be way off.
You are right Andy, I am guilty of reporting weather events, from just what I have heard. I am not computer literate, and I am not sure I want to be.
See what I mean. I posted the same thing twice. LOL
Accuweather shows Thanksgiving Day as clear to partly cloudy high of 49 and a low 27. Sounds good to me.
Looking at the local extended forecasts in the Huntington WV viewing area. It looks like the cold with be brief, they only have two cold days, Sunday and Monday and both those days are 40 or higher. Then they have it pushing 60 again by next Wednesday. Hopefully no more 70’s and 80’s till next April.
State of Kentucky had a top ten wettest October at #9
Lexington came in at 9th and Frankfort 10th
Mesonet site at Muhlenberg County recorded 12.16″ and the site in Ohio County saw 10.01″.