Tracking Another Big Storm System

Good Friday, everyone. We have a significant storm system moving into the region over the next few days, leading to flooding issues and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. This is another in a long line of big weather makers for our region.

The strengthening storm is working into the plains today and rill deepen as it moves into the western Great Lakes. This is going to produce blizzard conditions behind it, with severe weather and flooding ahead of it. Check out this monster…

Here’s a breakdown of how things look to play out:

  • Heavy rain is targeting southern and southeastern Kentucky today. This may very well cause renewed high water issues in a few areas.
  • Farther north, things are much drier through today into this evening.
  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms develop across southern Kentucky and lift to the north into Saturday morning. Flooding is likely to develop during this time.
  • Temps surge into the 60s on strong southwesterly winds Saturday afternoon.
  • Strong to severe thunderstorms develop across the west during the afternoon and roll east during the evening. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC:

  • In addition to the thunderstorms, winds are going to become a major player. Gusts may reach 50mph or greater at times through Saturday night.
  • Total rainfall numbers through Sunday morning will generally range from 1″-4″ across the state, with the highest totals in the south and southeast.

The latest computer models look like the forecast I put out a few days ago…

GFS

New GFS

Canadian

I will shoot you another update or two later today. I leave you with your tracking toys…

Make it a good one and take care.


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22 Responses to Tracking Another Big Storm System

  1. Dr Wx says:

    On the way again for a record setting year for rain.Will be watching the stream behind me closely this weekend.

    • Terry says:

      I topped the 10.00 inch mark early this morning on my monthly total! I may approach close to 15 inches for February if the 4 inches plus ends up verifying as some of the major models currently predict through Sunday AM. I would also be over 20 inches for my year-to-date asnd only on month two. I may also reach my annual average rainfall before the 4th of July if we dont see a longer-term pattern change add soon!!!

  2. Virgil E. says:

    I knew that severe threat would take a jog to the south and west.

  3. Andy Rose says:

    Thankfully for me the rain took a jog to the south last night and it didn’t get as bad as expected last night

  4. Cameron Fry says:

    Uh oh. CB didn’t mention snow in the extended. Forum to freak out in 3,2,1…

  5. Mike S says:

    The next convective outlook from SPC for day 2 will be updated later this morning, but so far, conditions are becoming less favorable for widespread severe thunderstorms in Kentucky.

  6. Mike S says:

    Teleconnections continue to differ from the forecast models about the coldest air by late next week. Most ensembles keep PNA-, NAO+, AO+. That’s the same as it has been. A negative PNA keeps moisture streaming from the Pacific and a neutral/positive NAO allows moisture to be tapped from the Gulf. We don’t want that….

  7. MarkLex says:

    Just read that Minneapolis had their snowiest February on record with 31.5 inches (with another snow coming soon). Their previous record for February was 26.5 inches. My first thought when reading that was HUH??? The record for Feb snow in Minneapolis is ONLY 26.5 inches, previously until now? That’s a pretty low # in my mind I thought it would be much much MUCH higher.

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