Good Friday, everyone. We have a significant storm system moving into the region over the next few days, leading to flooding issues and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. This is another in a long line of big weather makers for our region.
The strengthening storm is working into the plains today and rill deepen as it moves into the western Great Lakes. This is going to produce blizzard conditions behind it, with severe weather and flooding ahead of it. Check out this monster…
Here’s a breakdown of how things look to play out:
- Heavy rain is targeting southern and southeastern Kentucky today. This may very well cause renewed high water issues in a few areas.
- Farther north, things are much drier through today into this evening.
- Heavy rain and thunderstorms develop across southern Kentucky and lift to the north into Saturday morning. Flooding is likely to develop during this time.
- Temps surge into the 60s on strong southwesterly winds Saturday afternoon.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms develop across the west during the afternoon and roll east during the evening. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC:
- In addition to the thunderstorms, winds are going to become a major player. Gusts may reach 50mph or greater at times through Saturday night.
- Total rainfall numbers through Sunday morning will generally range from 1″-4″ across the state, with the highest totals in the south and southeast.
The latest computer models look like the forecast I put out a few days ago…
GFS
New GFS
Canadian
I will shoot you another update or two later today. I leave you with your tracking toys…
Make it a good one and take care.
On the way again for a record setting year for rain.Will be watching the stream behind me closely this weekend.
I topped the 10.00 inch mark early this morning on my monthly total! I may approach close to 15 inches for February if the 4 inches plus ends up verifying as some of the major models currently predict through Sunday AM. I would also be over 20 inches for my year-to-date asnd only on month two. I may also reach my annual average rainfall before the 4th of July if we dont see a longer-term pattern change add soon!!!
I knew that severe threat would take a jog to the south and west.
Thankfully for me the rain took a jog to the south last night and it didn’t get as bad as expected last night
Me either. Only .38 so far and barely staying to my south for now
Uh oh. CB didn’t mention snow in the extended. Forum to freak out in 3,2,1…
Nah the forum is completely over it
Agreed! No one cares about snow after the worst winter bust I can ever remember. How about dry and 80….probably be a while!
Ah yes 80 and sunny that’s my kind of weather
and most wouldn’t believe it either.
I had the same thought. No mention of a switch to a more wintery pattern next week. What’s up with that?
Not so AccuWeather showing nothing below 45 for the high from here on out. Its almost March and a lot of the state is on the plus side of 50 degrees for average highs now. Spring is more likely to show up instead of multiple snow threats. I just wish the rain would leave .
The sooner everyone (most already have) realizes that winter is in fact over, the better we’ll all be…time to move on to a warm rain soaked Spring, Summer, and Fall.
The next convective outlook from SPC for day 2 will be updated later this morning, but so far, conditions are becoming less favorable for widespread severe thunderstorms in Kentucky.
I figured the SPC going out on a limb three to four days out was a stretch. The models looked too good to be true.
Sounds good, less of a chance for downed trees & maybe a few areas will be spared a harder downpour.
Teleconnections continue to differ from the forecast models about the coldest air by late next week. Most ensembles keep PNA-, NAO+, AO+. That’s the same as it has been. A negative PNA keeps moisture streaming from the Pacific and a neutral/positive NAO allows moisture to be tapped from the Gulf. We don’t want that….
EXACTLY!
Just read that Minneapolis had their snowiest February on record with 31.5 inches (with another snow coming soon). Their previous record for February was 26.5 inches. My first thought when reading that was HUH??? The record for Feb snow in Minneapolis is ONLY 26.5 inches, previously until now? That’s a pretty low # in my mind I thought it would be much much MUCH higher.
Caribou, Maine had its snowiest January ever at just over 59″, smashing the previous January record by some 15″. Their 136″ to date is well above last year’s snowy season and will likely lead to a top 10 snowiest on record for the 2018/19 season
Knox County, KY has gotten nothing more than a dusting all season. Now rain is another story.
It’s all about location location location.