Flood Threat Before Some Snow

Good Thursday, everyone. Flooding and flash flooding issues are likely to begin the day across areas of southeastern Kentucky, then our focus shifts to accumulating snow tonight and Friday. This is our best chance for a widespread snowfall since NOVEMBER.

Let’s start with the flooding in the south and southeast. Rounds of heavy rain continue to target this region through the early afternoon. Some areas down here will finish with better than 4″ of rain. Each band of rain focuses a little farther east. Here are your heavy rain and flood trackers of the morning…

Drier air comes into play during the afternoon across central and western parts of the state as temps drop. With our front to the east, another wave of low pressure develops along this, bringing an increasing band of snow across the state. This develops in the west and intensifies as it moves east.

This will be a widespread light snowfall, but there’s likely to be a decent swath of accumulations showing up across areas of central and eastern Kentucky. By decent, I mean a 1″-3″ snowfall with an outside possibility of locally higher amounts. With temps dropping into the 20s later tonight and Friday morning and that will lead to slick travel. With all the water from recent rains still around, the stage is set for some icy roads with some snow on top.

The models continue to vary on amounts and placement, but all have the best snow look of the winter season. Let’s take a look:

The NAM continues to have a stripe of heavier snows across the eastern half of the state…

The Hi Res NAM is similar…

The Canadian Model is now taking on a similar look…

The GFS has increased totals from earlier runs, but is still lighter and more on the choppy side…

The EURO is more central and northern Kentucky oriented…

Flakes will fly through Friday evening, with the next system moving in on Saturday. That one should bring another light snowfall…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.


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25 Responses to Flood Threat Before Some Snow

  1. Terry says:

    Uh, yeah, we are in trouble in Harlan (not my family thankfully, but in general). The Cumberland is already above flood stage and I topped 4 inches now with at least another inch likely!! I say the river may reach moderate flood stage later today.

    • Jimbo says:

      I hope you live out of the flood zone. The real heavy rain appears to be training over your area. Please stay safe. I still have’nt reached .50 of an inch for this weeks storm. If the rain is any indication of the snow to come from this storm, then all I will get are festive flakes if that.

      • Terry says:

        I am about 50ft above flood plane, so safe. Thanks for the concern. This is bad. I think we top 6 or 7 inches by noon here. Roads are closing and the Cumberland is already in minor flood but rising fast. I have over 4 inches now and recorded almost an inch just since 3AM. GFS nailed this and shows 3 to 4 more inches, that was from the midnight run though tomorrow morning, so about 2 more inches to go.

  2. AC says:

    Winter weather advisories will likely be hoisted from just east of Louisville for LOU and maybe 2/3rds of JKL’s FO.

    Some locations could see over 3″ of accumulation out of this although that will be the exception rather than the rule.

    There is still an outside chance this overachieves. It is our only snowfall of the winter, after all.

  3. Terry says:

    Poor little Barbourville! Stay safe Andy and Bobt as I know how low Barbourville sits. This is going to be bad flood.

  4. Bus Haynes says:

    Snow what is that? Isn’t that something that falls in Alaska?

  5. BubbaG says:

    Hopefully wind blows some of the moisture away from roads first. These small snows can cause lots of road issues.

  6. Schroeder says:

    1.48 inches of rain fell yesterday in my backyard on top of 4.00 inches the day before. It never floods here, but those of you that have that problem stay safe. I wish we would get a real widespread snowstorm ( 15″ to 18″ ) statewide instead of a forecast of freezing rain and a possibility of an inch of light snow followed by another weak system on Saturday, this according to my local weather forecast. Sad, I wish the Winters would return like they were back when I was growing up in South Central Indiana. So far, I don’t care for the Winters here in Central Kentucky. Hope for a change dwindles, as next week we return to what we have now, above normal temperatures and rain. I’m off of the forum until we get a 15″ to 18″ snowstorm statewide as this is the only weather type I study. I got a bad feeling that this is my last post but hope not. Have a great and safe life everyone. I enjoy all your comments and Chris you are the greatest !

  7. Bus Haynes says:

    Schroeder if your waiting on that we will never hear from yo again. Lol.

  8. Terry says:

    I topped 5 inches and manual rain gauge over flowed…but…you all know me, I got my digital still a calculating. Looks like at least 1 or 2 more inches. Major flooding now in parts of Harlan, including homes.

    • Bobt says:

      The flood concern has been underplayed. Harlan has closed the flood gates from what I have heard. We are still getting pounded with rain and have for the last three days.

      • Terry says:

        Going on 6 inches!

        GFS was the only consistent model. I hope the GFS IS WRONG next week or we are in serious trouble as up to 15 inches by then.

        • feederband says:

          That’s disaster level rain totals. What’s going on there? I’m in Louisville and your area news doesn’t make it to this market. Keep us posted and I’ll share with my tribe on FB and Twitter.

        • Jimbo says:

          Still just light rain and drizzle here, off and on. Hopefully the heavy rain let’s up soon for you and the waters recede. Be careful out there.

  9. Russell says:

    WKY misses out as RIP winter rolls on in this neck of the woods.

  10. Rolo says:

    Some of our best snows came after a flood occurred. redneck bunker handicapping on Facebook your place to get free horse picks!!!as a me of tbe founding members here ole Rolo has 25 years of rwcing in his blood..

  11. Rolo says:

    forgot off highway 90 on curry branc in clay county we have had 5.9 inches rain this week

  12. BubbaG says:

    Seems most of the cold air will be in place after most of the moisture rolls out. Need fast snow to offset for above freezing ground and the models tend to overstate snow as a result. Model cherry pick time? 😉 🙂

    Averages still show north/east with most. Coating to 1.5″, with higher totals in higher elevations?

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