Good Sunday evening everyone. Our history making storm continues to come together across the eastern part of the country and is going to have a major impact on our weather. Rain, snow and high winds will make for some nasty conditions over the next few days.
Snow is already flying across the high elevations of southeastern Kentucky. Check out this pics I just got from Black Mountain…
Snow will continue to fly across the highest mountains this evening, but the snow level will slowly lower overnight into Monday morning. Areas along the Virginia border can pick up a slushy accumulation late tonight and early tomorrow.
The real deal arrives later Monday into Monday night. A band of heavy rain and snow will drift westward across the eastern half of the state during this time. Dynamic cooling takes over and switches much of the precipitation over to snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. The snow could be heavy at times and really pile up in some areas. It will have a warm ground to overcome and that’s why I have some pretty big spreads on the First Call For Snowfall…
That is only the first call and I will adjust the totals and placement as needed with future updates. Also, don’t just look at the highest number and automatically assume that’s what you’re getting. It’s a wide range I have there and the numbers could be higher or lower than what I’m showing.
The first call is backed up by the latest runs of the NAM, European and GFS that are all very similar. Here’s the latest GFS run…
The risk areas from the HPC seem to match up as well…
In addition to the snow threat… winds are going to crank up. Sustained winds of 20-40mph will be possible across central and eastern Kentucky with gusts to 50mph possible. Combine the wind potential with the heavy snow threat and power issues are likely for some.
A full update comes later tonight when an upgrade to Alert status will take place. I will also be sending out quick updates via twitter: @kentuckyweather .
Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.
thanks Chris
Epic storm…and we get nothing again in Central Kentucky…the dome prevails…
I wouldn’t be so quick to write this off just yet. This storm has not even made its full impact known.
How I hope we get snow!:)
Yeah, it’s October. I don’t think there should even be mention of The Dome until January. I mean, we’re still two months away from winter actually beginning.
In this case, domey is our homey. This stuff can say to the east. Not seeing a functional fun point for a quick melter. Anywhere with 6 or more inches of heavy snow is already power threatened, but add the wind- yikes. Heck, the further east, the wind and torrential rain will cause power issues. No snow required.
When you factor in the leaves being on some trees its more like 3 could cause power outages and thats directly from EKY power which supplies coops all over the region. This is one storm they can gladly bust a forecast on as far as I’m concerned!
EXACTLY! The Louisville portion of the Dome is firmly in place! I do pray for those in the path of Sandy. She’s not messing around!
I just want to see snow fall out of the sky.
Thank you, Chris. Get some rest, you’re gonna need it.
Hope this is signs of things to come..Needa good winter for a change!!!
Map looks good. Shows the main stuff in a tight band. Anybody getting 6 or more accumulated inches along with the wind could lose their power for a while. Heck, the further east, no snow required for power issues.
Hope the snowfall map pans out. First snow fall prediction for CB this winter (fall) hopefully he starts out on the positive side. But the pessimist in me says more rain than snow.
I expect my coating in Lexington CB! Hahaha. If it doesn’t happen this will be a major “BUST”! Lol. Just wait, if this doesnt happen for many folks, that word will be the first thing they think of. Gotta love it.
Given the big spread, can’t be a bust. Anywhere from 0-8 for most areas he is making a prediction for. He said the other day that if the snow fell at heavy rates, it would over come the ground temps so we’ll have to see. Definitely a tough snow forecast before the snow season even starts. Wonder about the accumulation on the trees? That’s not the warm ground so could 5 inches be on the trees with only an inch on the ground? Some trees still have leaves so my guess is 2-3 inches of snow along with the winds will equal power outages.
What do you mean Alert Status.
Do you honestly not understand anything about this blog?
I’ve been a reader of Chris’s blog for years, I have never posted anything before until now. CGM40 your response to Vanessa’s question is cruel. Vanessa has stated in the past that she’s slightly disable mentally and has a learning disability. Think before you speak or in this case type… God bless.
It is amazing how simple comments can be taken out of context. How is it being cruel by asking a question if she honestly does not understand the blog? Of course, you probably think I am suppose to know EVERY comment she has posted in the past, right? If you have never noticed, people will troll blogs for attention in ways very similar to asking questions in a manner like Vanessa. Sorry if you consider it cruel, but in no way was it ever intended to be. Thinking before you speak/type, it seems like it wouldn’t hurt for you to practice what you preach.
I agree with your statement about trolling, it is important to note that many people don’t know what trolling is. But it is real, and people do it for some weird reason. She could be a troll she could not.
dynamic cooling….wonderful words to read, I think…..
I guess I will sit here in Harlan and wait for the snow to come on down black mountain and bury us by the way Happy Halloween
yep BUBBAG right, DONT WANT no big snow right now, see some falling is GREAT, but thats it. as far as predicting putting map out.
its IMPOSSIBLE and I respect the hell out of BAILEY for even trying. I mean yes tomm nite u get in a DOWN POUR then it will coat the ground and soon as it lighten up its GONE.
so this means if ur not 2000 feet or higher and in DEEP MOISTURE u aint going get nothing as far as accumalation. IMPOSSIBLE.
deep Moisture u can see were it will set up tonite. nothing going change as far as PRECIP blowing up radar spreading on westward as we go into tomm afternoon/evening.
yes im in Clay County and its drizzling, but that can`t evap cool etc. so 95 percent of area see a mix at best.
as far as we miss again, only couple of the NON Educated will even mum those words. saying dome etc. thats so funny.
its a storm we rarly see as far as setup etc goes, its like winning the lottery to get SNOW thjis time year folks. fact is this is RARE storm and to even be TALKING bout possible snow tells u ALL u need to know bout this BAD BOY Sandy.
Win da birds start dancin den it meen dare gunna be snow comin.I didn’t see any birds dancin today but I did see a murder of crows mustve been like 60 of em on the grond in da trees on da cars on da mailboxs they was everyware.that tales me somthing I truly think we gunne get a lil somthing outta this hear in centrl ky I just got dat feelin plus I aint seen none of dem crows in da area in da daytime like dat for a loooooong time cus they normly be flying out to da south or west everyday at da time that I done seen em I’m lookin for an erly snowman this week yall jus wate n see.
Im gunna go out on a limb n predik half to an inch for centrl ky
Chris, we sure miss you in the Huntington area although, we are thankful your still close enough to benefit from your forecast. Thanks for all you do, and for including us in your first call map.
What’s all this talk about The Dome??? It’s October! It’s not the Dome…it’s the Latitude! Rant over. Prayers for all in the path of this beast.
39 deg here right now, rain started thru the night last night and has rainded pretty much all day!
We all know the higher elevations are gonna see snow. What about where everyone lives. How much snow will people actually see.
http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12854-1351476972.png
Looks like Sandy has formed a pretty solid eye. I remember someone saying that this wouldnt happen. Noaa should have posted Hurricane Warnings
Photogenic for sure.
The dome? I tell u what it is….the only man-made, invisible object that has no matter and takes up no space, but has the power to keep all big snows away from it through the sheer strength of nothing but willpower. In the beginning, God created the heavens and the Earth and the Dome. LOL.
Rolo I agree with U buddy, I guess. You say “Non-educated” folk mum the words—-but you also can’t use any educated information to explain away why we haven’t seen a majority of normal snowfall winters since 2001.
You guys have fun tracking this one. Will keep an eye out here, but not going to let a storm get my nether regions in a bunch—-I’ll save that for other things.
I’m going to sleep and dream of a world that has 38 inches of snow in my front yard, where I don’t have to drive in it, and it will also be 72 degrees and the snow refuses to melt. 🙂
Night all.
Actually, for most folks it was 1998. Since then, most snows have been tiny drive-by events. Rolo was pointing out this is a special event that does not conform to our usual winter events. In part since it is not winter yet.
My mom lives in Paintsville, so will check on them. They seem to be on edge of rough to bad. Just a little more west is not a groovy thing for people that like electricity.
If this system does not go rogue and head out to sea, there could be record amounts of people without power.
Paintsville does seem to be on the edge of yellow and red on the maps.
…I’ll believe it when I see it.
Chris, thanks for the update. I’m here in Beckley, WV..used to love your blog when you were in WV…so glad I found your new site and that your maps show WV too. We’re preparing for an October Blizzard that would be a heck of a storm in January…but 1-3 feet in October!!
Dang. If this system tracks as expected, you guys are in the belly of this beast. Even if it shifts some, you should still be in for some action. Not the kind though that is fun.
Stay safe.
Mike if it happens, you better comment simply ” I believe it” lol.
I sure will!
So Letcher Co-Bell and Harlan get 6-16
I love reading your blog Chris. You are very precise and are typically right. I live in the London, KY area and I am hoping for some snow, but not enough to cause major outage problems. Around 3 inches would be about perfect. Looking forward to your next Call For Snowfall post.
00z GFS Wayyyyyy west
For this – it’s altitude, not latitude.
Still can’t believe something like this is happening in October! But – then again, last October there were record snows in the northeast which was very early for them. I’m sure everyone was thinking what a horrible winter it was going to be since there was an historic snow that early, but after that, the winter ended up being warm all over for the most part.
My Windstream DSL had an outage tonight for the first time in ages, but I’m back up : D
Looked to me like the latest run of the gfs showed more of a wsw movement when hitting landfall…By tomorrow night extreme parts of East ky may be showing colors like west virginia..
I know the latest gfs run is hinting measurable snow all the way to Louisville…alot needs to happen for this to play out. But, I think even an inch of the white, slushy stuff would be nice for everyone to get in on. Let’s see if the trend continues on the 12z run.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfsp24048.gif
Grrrrr. What did the 00z GFS and NAM reveal. I dont wont to look myself because of the anticipation. What does it say for SE KY.
anywhere from 4″for interior se ky and up to 16″ for extreme se ky
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=RLX
holy smokes that has me in nearly a foot of snow. if this is the case why is the NWS still saying we get zip???? the models are within 24 hours of onset!!!! Are the models just showing these numbers for higher elevations like the NWS says or could the valleys see some snow out of this?
Its just one model run if trend continues the NWS will adjust accordingly. Once again this is a epic storm there is really nothing to compare it to. I promise you this epic storm will and already has given met’s fits. Its real hard to predict the magnitude of this storm and what its going to do if none like it has ever been documented. It wouldnt surprise me at this point if the models start showing a foot of snow as far west as the I-65 corridor.
You guys/gals are great! I’ll have to visit this blog more often. So how many inches we talking about for Paintsville? And Georgetown? I believe this is gonna be a doozy. Better to be prepared then not. It helps when you want to be comfortable. 🙂 So get the batteries, generators (safely) ready! Keep warm, keep dry, and keep in touch. 🙂
no the models are not showing that based on elevation.
So why is the blog dead on the eve of possibly one of the most historical storms we have ever experienced. Forecasting 12+ of snow before Halloween. COME ON!!!!!!!
keep in mind that it’s the models forecast, likely totals are to be lower than what they predict
How about knott Co.
No update on the stacked 00z models???? when it comes to forecasting winter storms, there is no better than Bailey. But why must we wait for an update on such a historical storm with such impressive model returns. Come on Bailey, you’re killing us!!!!!!!!!!!!!