Good Sunday afternoon everyone. The storm of all storms is about to come together across the eastern half of the country and is going to have a major impact on our weather. I don’t have to tell you about how devastating this monster is going to be for millions of people from the Ohio Valley to the northeast. You are living through another historic weather event this year.
Here are some brief thoughts…
– Rain across eastern Kentucky will continue to increase this afternoon and evening. Some sleet may mix in at times.
– Cold air will continue to funnel into the state this evening and overnight. I expect wet snow to mix in across southeastern Kentucky by Monday morning and some light accumulation will be possible in the high mountains.
– The models are trending colder tomorrow afternoon and evening. The GFS is now showing mainly snow or a mix of rain and snow for much of central and eastern Kentucky.
– Sandy makes the transition into an inland Monster Monday night and Tuesday morning as it works southwestward toward West Virginia. A huge shield of rain and snow will continue to overspread central and eastern Ky from the northeast.
– Tuesday will be an interesting day as rain and snow continues. This is a setup that features heavier precipitation falling as snow with lighter precipitation falling as rain or a mix.
– The potential remains for a possible crippling wet snowstorm for parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky. Areas along the Virginia and southern West Virginia border have the potential to hit double digit snowfall amounts. I’m working on a first call map, but I do have a Snowfall Odds map ready to roll…
– That map is for the chance for, at least, some snow accumulation during this time. The farther east you live, the higher the chances. Our Winter Storm Threat is likely to be upgraded later today.
– Winds will become a big player as gusts to 50mph will be possible across the eastern half of the state.
– Put all of this together and we have an increased risk for powers outages for areas east of Interstate 75.
I will get some more maps and thoughts out later this afternoon. Enjoy your Sunday and take care.
Thanks for all the hard work Chris. I know a lot of us still follow along from the Huntington area!
What do you mean updated.
lol
I echo Mike’s comment! Thanks for keeping your WSAZ friends in mind as you craft your forecasts and make your maps. Looks like Gallipolis is one of the places where a small wobble north or south by Sandy could make a BIG difference in what we see.
I too would like to thank Chris from the bottom of my heart for him remembering his West Virginia followers. Chris, thanks to you, and a couple of other weather geniuses like yourself, hubby and I, and a few folks we know, have had enough of a heads-up to be, we hope, 100% prepared for this storm as it slams into central West Virginia. Astonishingly, some people around here are still looking at me as if I had two heads when I have recounted your forecasts.. that’s Darwinism at work I guess :^)
Well, it looks as if we poor slobs in Western Kentucky will miss this fun but I have hopes for a wild winter nonetheless. We seem to be in a time of weather extremes. After last winter, we’d take just about anything falling out of the sky that isn’t all liquid! 🙂
The feeling is mutual about missing out on the effects of Sandy and desires for a mild winter 😉 (I’m now near Nashville, although I went to WKU in Bowling Green KY). Still have memories of the cold and snow of 2010 and 2011.
However, it does appear that Nashville and other parts of TN and KY that were spared frost a few weeks ago will get a good freeze the next few nights to finally put a dagger in this year’s growing season.
I liked the map Chris put up I might of actually extend it further west to the I-65 corridor. I thinking there is a chance from I-65 and points east. Definitely I -75 and points east it should get interesting.
Yea, Danny, that’s what I’ve been thinking during this whole thing…I’m in Bardstown and it’s colder than…well…you get the idea…and the “breeze” is “moist-feeling”?? I seem to think this baby will head farther west than projected and give us all a surprise in some form or another! 🙂
Hello from E-town! 😀
Hoping we get in on a few flakes just for the ‘pretty factor’.
Chris,is jackson seeing something you guys are not seeing because they say nothing but rain I just don’t get it Chris…
They’re are waiting till the last possible second just like always!! History does in fact repeat it self
I agree Tyler…I never have valued their input on a winter forcast especially when it’s a possible “monster” of a storm and knowing ahead of time is of importance…..I’d much rather be informed of the possibilities and get a bust as to get nothing and not be prepared!!! Thanks CB for your hard work! 🙂
There is one factor that I could see playing a significant role in precip across our area. As the front that has effected us this weekend phases with Sandy, she brings it back west as a warm front. This, and a further west track could help a lot of KY see some snowfall.
That’s my idea, too, Pierce. It’s been terribly COLD here in Bardstown today…they say it’s like 48° here right now, and I just went out to chase my dogs in, and I’m like, “Think AGAIN!??!”- it literally “feels like snow” out there right now!?
Funny..my comp normally has the temp right within 1-2 degrees…it’s saying we have 76° and SUNNY!!! LOL! 😉 It’s been so cloudy and dim that my solar lights have glowed almost all day! I think they should move the chances of @ least a “mild blast” of snow flurries to at least the I-65 corridor…I think this storm might end up surprising us all in the end spectrum of things! 🙂
I agree with you ladies. I coach a soccer team in North Central KY and we had practice today and at one point there was a short blast of wet SLEET! It didn’t last but a minute or two, but it was definitely sleet. I myself would love an early snowstorm!
I think it might be in my best interests to go out and buy some rock salt and perhaps a small shovel.
The weather channel folks don’t have that south west turn of the storm that Chris is forecasting, They take the low west into Pennsylvania then a north to north east turn, what are they looking at??
I noticed they were showing some different model run tracks a little while ago and most were favoring a turn to the west northwest at the most but I did one turning the storm southwest into Maryland before back up, another had a brief slight southwesterly turn, and a third had a due west track then turning back up. Those were the only 3 depicting anything other than staying on a northwestward track.
NYC just announced they will close down their subway. The surge from (soon to be extra-tropical) Sandy could be a lot bigger than what Hurricane Irene did, raising concerns of subway flooding.
Too bad that Sandy is forcing NWS Jackson KY to delay their dual-pol conversion. But other radars like Louisville, Wilmington OH, Charleston WV and Morristown TN are dual-pol and can still give some coverage for eastern KY.
Jackson will start their upgrade as soon as this storm departs.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dualpol/index.php?wfo=jkl
Seen the live press conferenence a couple hrs ago about NY that is the safest thing to do
It will be interesting to watch over the next 24 to 48 hours. I hope to see some snow but hopefully just a few inches. We shall see, ” May the odds be forever in your favor”
Oh btw the Steeler uniforms are hideous
Convicts.
they should throw them back
It is geting colder 40 outside at my house
temps have started to fall here and the rain and wind have picked up! May get interesting here the next few days!!!!
Morristown NWS just upgraded watches to winter storm warnings. Forthe southwestern VA counties and some NC counties. They too are just going to with mainly a higher elevation event saying 4-12 inches mainly above 3000 feet.
were u see the p[recip now id basuically were the set up is for any precip, rain or snow.
I agree with NWS its a 2500 higher E exent at best. I know BAILEY disagrees
CB is saying the mix and snow will come so fast you will get quick surface level cooling and this will cause snow to accumulate. Mainly due to the high rate of snow fall. If this happens early on, lights out for a lot of people and the 2,000′ or higher people would be buried.
Still, for this all to happen, we need the systems to meet at just the right point. Timing and path are the difference between a lot of wind and mix, verses east KY folks getting smacked.
Blizzard Warnings issued for counties at the KY/VA border! Wondering if we will get a winter storm watch or warning in Johnson County or if we are too far north and west….this thing could go either way I’m afraid. I’d be more afraid if it pans out for the snow and wind!
If this system pans out at all as CB is expecting, not seeing how you guys to not get it too. All depends on the timing and the system shift when it does the western flow that is expected. It seems that regardless of timing and pattern, WV 2,000′ and higher gets smacked hard regardless.
I am so excited! I live in Perry County…..so how much snow will I get?
Went and got the rock salt for outside. Cleaned the house for almost two hours. Yep—-something different is in the air.
Glad to see the Blizzard Warnings going up for VA/WV…..with all the heavy snow and wind, it’s going to do quite a number on the topography for a while over there. Winds in KY may gust to 50+ at the surface, so especially the higher elevations in WV/VA would definitely see big winds (sustained) in the higher elevations.
Winter storm watches eastern KY? Well, even if those aren’t issued and the snow starts flying, looks like it will turn into a NOWcasting situation. I just hope that if that does pan out that too many aren’t caught off guard.
Waiting with bated breath for a memorable event here—-whether it be a dusting, an inch of snow, or six. I’m ready for whatever mother nature brings (I think…)
snow and sleeting a little in harlan, grays knob area!
Fwiw Euro has some pretty cool temps coming in at 850mb earlier today. It looks like it has the coldest temps showing up into E KY, SW VA, and central and southern WV..
once again u can see were precip going fall right now, well as far as KY goes.
KARIE HALL has LONDON in 4-8 inches so that must be BAILEY map as well.
HAZAED EAST and SE were any snow will fall. like said today precip this afternoon is were it will set up.
no need for any advisorys except were they are now.
It’s been drizzling all day in my neck of the woods….if that’s any reference to the “setup” position for precip..
Winter Storm Warning for Harlan, Bell, Letcher, and Pike Counties.
WISE VA alreaDY 3.8 inches snow on ground, this should tell u what type snow coming a UPPER ELEVATION storm.
I cant believe WKYT others showing 4 plus inxches in london area.lol not going happwen.
Don’t want any snow in Laurel County until December or Jan.
WYMT is giving 1-4
Continues to look like WV is going to get the brunt of the snowfall. The models were all over that days ago. Blizzard Warnings in October.. you gotta’ love it. Looking forward to the 00Z model runs.
When does the next run come out WXman?
NAM should be viewable around 22:00 local time tonight, GFS will probably be closer to 23:00 local time.
Thanks!
I agree with Rolo. We ain’t getting snow this early, maybe a few flakes. Now West Virginia mountains gonna get rocked!
Been raining at my house in southeast Lexington off an on all evening. Tempos don’t seem to have dropped at all.
I live in Carter Co and we were always use to watching you from the Huntington television. I always read and followed your updates but since I have satellite we are FORCED to watch Huntington area tv. I appreciate getting to read what you write for Ky. Anyway I still enjoy getting to read your reports
look at radar and the pics coming out Black MOUNTAIN, man aint it cool to see. wish i was in the mountains to be honest.
as I predicted nothing in regular land, but were it snowing way up high tonite they going get a BIGEN,