Good Sunday everyone. This is going to be a very busy place over the next several days as we watch a once in a lifetime (at least) event unfolding across the eastern half of the country. Hurricane Sandy is going to join forces with a huge dip in the jet stream and make the transition into a monster of a nor’easter. The models have pretty much settled in on the track and evolution of this storm and it is likely to have a significant impact on our weather here in the bluegrass state. A Winter Storm THREAT continues for eastern Kentucky.
We actually have some wintry stuff to talk about before that monster throws precipitation our way. Rain is likely today across the eastern half of the state. Temps are going to be chilly and colder air will slowly filter in from the northwest later tonight. That will likely cause a mixture of rain and wet snow across the higher mountains. The NAM shows the areas most likely to see some flakes tonight and Monday morning…
Monday is when things really to take a turn toward the historic side. Sandy will be approaching the New Jersey coastline during the afternoon and will then push west and southwest from there. This will be a devastating storm to much of the Mid Atlantic and northeast.
As Sandy transforms from a hurricane into a nor’easter, we will start to feel the impact around here. Check out the track of the storm from the NAM:
The storm looks to do what we’ve been talking about for a while, now. Work toward the west and southwest toward the eastern Ohio Valley. The GFS says “I approve this message”…
You simply cannot get much better agreement than that on any event, let alone something historic. The reason for the southwesterly motion is because of a huge block across eastern Canada and Greenland. Can the models change? Yes… but time is running out.
What does it all mean for us?
– A shield of rain and snow will quickly work in from the northeast late Monday and Monday night. This is going to be awesome to watch on radar!
– A corridor of heavy snow may set up across parts of eastern Kentucky Monday night through Tuesday night. This is one of those setups that we see the heavy precipitation falling as snow and the lighter stuff falling as a mix of rain and snow.
– The potential for several inches of wet snow is certainly there for eastern parts of the state. That’s why we have the Winter Storm THREAT…
– Many people are asking how snow can accumulate with a warm ground. I can give you many, many examples of where it snows faster than it can melt. That’s what is likely to happen this go around in some areas and if the models are right, power problems could arise from eastern Kentucky into parts of Ohio, West Virginia and Virginia.
– Rain and a mix of rain and snow is likely to work pretty far westward into central Kentucky (I-65) during this time.
– Wraparound rain and snow showers may carry us all the way through Halloween and into early Thursday.
– The winds are going to be a huge player across central and eastern Kentucky. Gusts may top 40mph and could even approach 50mph in the far east from Monday night through Tuesday.
I hope to be able to get more specific on the snow chances later today and that may come with a first call map. Updates will be coming your way as needed. Have a great Sunday and take care.
Good luck on your first call map. Will definitely be a hard prediction to make.
Yeah I see NWS in Jackson has issued winter storm watch for bell,harlan, letcher, Pike. For 4-8″ up to a foot BUT for only HIGH ELEVATION above 2500 ft. With mainly rain in leer elevations. Gonna be aggregating to say the least!
do you mean aggrevating? 😉
Do you mean aggravating?? 🙂
that to lol
Thanks for the update, Chris. Time to charge up the car battery and dust off the Ham Radio.
Chris I follow your site daily, more this past week and I’m sure, into next week. I enjoy watching extreme weather develop. I would like you to give us a run-down on the actual names of the organizations you use (NAM?). I would like to know more and understand where the information is coming from.
Hello frm Perry Co.
My biggest fear from this potential heavy snowfall is a loss of electricity. I will spend most of the day today moving part of my woodpile onto the carport where it willbe easier to access if needed. I am grateful to have my wood furnace for times like this.
I urge everyone reading this to spend some time getting prepared so you can stay safe and warm should a severe snowstorm it the area.
Do you have plenty of batteries?
With extreme being the descriptive term to describe our weather this past year and now events being labeled as “once in a lifetime” one can only wonder what old man winter holds in store for the snow deprived of Central Ky this coming winter.
This will be very interesting, to say the least. Can’t wait to see how it plays out!!!
I wish that I lived back in eastern Kentucky right now! Is there no signs that it will hit northern Alabama?
This is crazy…..but on the bright side, I’m coming around! It seems I’m feeling more like my old self about the snow but NOT the power outages. Sad part is that you really can’t have one without the other around here :/
Chris is up and tweeting. Looking forward to each update.
Sandy is already down to 951mb! Wow! There will be a movie made about Sandy in the future.. There, I called it.
I posted a link below why that and the energy from the other systems it could feed from could mean bad things for people in the main areas of the event.
Looks like your winter outlook is looking good early on and it really makes sense when you look at all of the calling cards of el nino…..what are you thinking as far as snow in EKY this week? I have a hard time buying into dynamic cooling after the last couple of busted forecasts where it was included but this is certainly a different beast we’re dealing with……
I just want an inch in Lexington, enough to get me in the holiday spirit! But who knows if it will happen
If the past is any indication an inch or less is all you will get in Lexington with each event. 🙁
Central ky looks to have a windy cold rain out of this yuk, bring back Indian summer, heavy snow on the mountain tops does nothing for me!
Is this event going to be for extreme Easter Ky only? Are the SE counties going to get anything other than a cold rain?
I live at the foot of Black Mountain so we always get the maximum amount. I’m sooo not ready.
Hopefully, this storm goes further west than expected!
No bad will intended to souls east of us, but heavy snow and high winds can stay to the east. I prefer having my power rather than a big snow that will melt almost as soon as it accumulates. Blah.
Well said Bubba.. Going w/o power for a week is no fun.
Seems a lot of folks might not be taking this as seriously as they should. Since nothing in modern time for that area to relate it with, I can somewhat understand why they are not.
This link seems to preface Sandy with appropriate perspective:
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-sandy-superstorm-20121027
Looking at radar in Ohio the radar returns seems to be increasing and back building westward. I know the front is through the state of KY but Sandy seems to be pushing the precip from Ohio westward. I’m thinking anything is possible from absolutely nothing to a hodge podge of a mess. There is truly nothing to base this storm on its historic it’s a guessing game. The real estate this historic storm will cover is absolutely mind boggling. NWS out of Cincinnati or Wilmington OH is actually calling for a possible accumulating snow which includes northern KY. Just how far west the precip gets, there is growing confidence it will give the Ohio Valley a glancing taste of some sort of weather.
Danny im thinking same thing, look at this MONSTER. and yep look lkike the prcip feed in here now is wrapping moisture back in from east.
very interesting as its INTENIFYING IN SE KY. look ar radar loop it indeed look like it already wrapping around.
yep Danny love ur post, ANYTHING POSSIBLE, ur correct its feeding moisture back this way already.
Some intense radar returns moving north.. is that heavy rain.. or possibly a little mixed precip causing those bright colors?
Ya’ll can keep it in SE KY, I dont want to battle the elements with i take my little one trick or treating wednesday night.
Rolo, we’re neighbors, so what do you see for us here around Gunchester? LOL!
I was wondering about the bright red’s showing up on radar in eastern KY, Chris’s tweet confirmed that it’s possibly sleet and I won’t argue that. Im thinking another real possibility is small chunk’s of energy could separate from Sandy and basically just wander. It’s a rare but it has happen before case in point Feb of 1997. Granted were talking to different storms that do not in any way resemble one another, however being that said a chunk of energy did separate from that storm in 97 and gave parts of Ky big snows.