Good evening gang. Nothing has changed in terms of the overall thought process or setup with Hurricane Sandy and the historic transition into a monster storm.
Sandy it about to intensify and that process will carry it all the way until a likely late Monday landfall along the New Jersey coast. It should be noted the National Hurricane Center has elected to NOT issue Hurricane Warnings. Yes… you head that right. They are allowing local NWS offices to issue High Wind Warnings and Flood Watches instead. I honestly don’t have enough words to describe how insane that idea is. Which is going to get your attention and make you prepare for the storm… A Hurricane Warning or a High Wind Warning?
This is a dangerous precedent being set by the NHC and one that is drawing the ire of a ton of people. Even Jim Cantore of TWC seems upset over it and is wondering aloud on air if people aren’t taking it as serious because there is no Hurricane Warning.
The post landfall track of the storm continues to bend back to the west and even southwest. The GFS, NAM and European Model are in pretty good agreement on that idea. That will throw moisture back in here later Monday through Wednesday. A swath of rain and snow will work in from northeast to southwest. The potential continues to be there for several inches of heavy wet snow to fall across parts of eastern Kentucky.
The HPC has their updated snowfall odds out…
Think of the HPC as being similar to the SPC. The SPC puts out levels the severe storms risk and the above probabilities would be similar to the Slight, Moderate and High risk.
A full update comes your way later tonight. Have a great rest of your evening and take care.
good work BAILEY!!!
Chris,
Thank you for staying on top of this historical storm. I look at your blog for the most rational view of the weather! It stumps me that some of the states are calling for emergency measures, yet no hurricane warning?
Seems to be full agreement that a hurricane will make landfall!!
Not sure what other criteria would be Neccessary to issue a warning. Let ’em have it Chris!
And…… As always keep us up to speed on our pipe dreams of snow
At this point, this is what we know;
1. This is a life threatening storm for those who end up being in the bullseye!
2. With it being the middle of the weekend, makes it worse ( ALOT of people don’t bother with watching the news[warnings]!
3. KY has the “DOME”!
4. It is a big storm.
HUGE Storm!
Guys guys guys… hang on just a second. Let’s not crucify NHC just yet. In order to issue a Hurricane Warning, the first thing you’ve got to have is an expected landfalling hurricane. Right? Sandy is not, and never was, expected to make landfall as a hurricane. Post-tropical or “extra-tropical” systems have differences from tropical systems. Sandy is transitioning into a post-tropical system as we speak. She’s going to be more of a Nor’easter than a hurricane at landfall. Issuing Hurricane Warnings for something that’s not a hurricane would be confusing. Anybody in broadcasting should know that the golden rule is NOT to confuse the general public. You have to call a thing what it is. Remember when the remnants of Ike brought 78 MPH winds to Louisville a few years ago? Are you saying we should have been under a Hurricane Warning here in Kentucky?
the hurricane is expected to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane 80 mph winds. if thats the case shouldnt they quit going in with the hurricane hunters and cancel the name sandy. the storm is srenthening whether its post tropical pre tropical or watever. its in the ocean so its tropical and its a hurricane so your statement is pretty much dumb
Being in the ocean doesn’t make it tropical. It doesn’t matter if the winds are 250 MPH, if it’s not a hurricane by definition, then it doesn’t get a hurricane warning. Again, should KY have been under a hurricane warning for Ike in 2008? Huh?
Kentucky should have had a Hurricane Force Wind Advisory, yes—had they known the winds would have been that strong.
Or HFWW since “warning” sounds more important and pressing than “advisory.”
Except, there’s no such thing.
Bottom line here is the Feds have specific criteria for a good reason, and they are doing their jobs properly. If Sandy was forecast to still have tropical properties at landfall, they would have issued a warning already.
Given there severity of the issue, i disagree with your comment. How do you get the attn of people. by issuing flood watches/warnings? NO………
WXman…I totally agree with your comments. If the general public has not been warned then they are lost. Katrina hit New Orleans as a HURRICANE and look how many people suffered because they did not take the proper precautions.
Well, there went about 10 points off of my I.Q. after reading this comment. I think better safe than sorry should trump any “Golden Rule” about confusing the public! Are you serious?????
Yep, dead serious.
today i heard a rumble and i looked up, i saw the dome waking from hibernation. i then heard a evil ominous chuckle as the dome took its place atop central ky.
nationwide chat on here http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/
It is to my knowledge that “Sandy” will soon dissipate and become a very strong low pressure system that will eventually wreak havoc to the East Coast and many of the cities in the NE. You can’t issue TS or Hurricane Warnings for a storm that is not. This storm has been broadcast over every major TV-Cable-Internet-Radio-..It has been face booked, my spaced, tweeted and talked about by everyone. If people want to hang around and ride it out, so be it. They have had plenty of time to prepare.
Thank Chris for all the updates! I till think EKY will get snow out of this. It is going to be a very huge system. Will make landfall larger than any Hurricane that has ever made landfall.
That’s another question…what are they going to CALL this thing once it DOES hit land? Just plain ole Sandy? Would be the first time in history perhaps that we’ve had a named system that didn’t have a “tropical depression,” “sub-tropical storm” “hurricane” “tropical storm” or some other prefix attached to it….that I can remember anyway….”The Halloween Storm” and names like that don’t count…somebody care to interject my seemingly huge oversight somewhere?
I have friends that are along the coast that have VERY colorful names for the storm (non of which I can say here)!
I believe the technical term is extra tropical, I could be wrong though.
yes, the correct term is Extra-Tropical
They named it Frankenstorm. I am from Maryland and that they said it’s what my family told me. They said it’s a mad house at the stores today.
So we are going to have a hurriance warning.
This thing is a monster! I feel someone is big for a big surprise!! I also think the storm will move further west then predicted. I heard the storm also has a cold core unlike what a tropical storm which would usually have a warm core. I think this storm will surprise people..
Here, for those who don’t understand the process:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf
then why do they keep the name and have this
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/030336.shtml?table#contents
tsunami warning for alaska, after british columbia suffered from a 7.7 earthquake
Another thing Paul Douglas over at WeatherNation tv is worried about: this from Chief Met. Paul Douglas twitter “What I can’t understand: why aren’t officials evacuating New Yorkers within 5-8 ft of sea level?”
I am sad and worried many may die if not evacuated
Well……. the meat and potatoes of the traffic here this weekend has been big snow chances which still seem slim unless faarrr east KY and mainly higher up. Even then it will be a quick melt.
I sure hope Sandy is blown out of proportion. Big damaging storms are only cool to people that are spectating. They at not cool if you are hit by one.
Hard decision wondering if one should fill up Gas can’s for generator..For some reason i feel Eastern ky only gets some rain/snow mix…Euro should also trend a little more south as i think this is to be expected..