Tracking An Arctic Front

Good Friday to one and all. We have an arctic cold front blowing into town today and this will set us up for a cold and windy weekend with rounds of snow showers and squalls. While your friendly weatherdude is full blown spring mode, mother nature doesn’t really care. She still has quite a bit of winter left in the tank.

The arctic front swings in here later today. Temps will spike into the 40s in front of the boundary as winds become very gusty. A period of light snow and light rain will develop along this front with a quick switch to snow showers and squalls behind it. It’s possible to get a quick covering today in the heavier snow showers, but a lot of melting will take place.

Track it all…

Current Temperatures

Snow showers will continue later tonight into Saturday. Colder air will be in place and some light accumulations will be a good bet for many. Highs in the mid and upper 20s will be common, with gusty winds making it feel much colder than that.

The snow showers and flakes will taper off into Sunday, but the cold and win will remain.

The pattern into next week looks very active as a couple of huge storms roll across the country. The first one impacts our weather with rain and snow Monday night into Tuesday and the next one moves in by Thursday.

If you’re like me and looking for spring to start early, this isn’t what you want to see…

GFS 2That’s the NAO forecast and it looks to stay negative into early March. That means blocking should be plentiful, giving us big dips in the jet stream that lead to more storms.

Have a great Friday and take care.


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89 Responses to Tracking An Arctic Front

  1. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Arctic air with rain on Monday. That is the way we roll here in KY. Bring on more water boarding. I confess it is a Mother Nature terrorist plot.

  2. Cosmokramer says:

    Erma Gerd…..Really? really? REALLY? Rrreeeaaalllyyy? And now in your best Jim Carrey voice, Rhhhhe-hhee-he-eely?

  3. Jenn says:

    NO!!!!!! I want spring, the ground hog said soooo

  4. Mark says:

    Came across this gem, a real ‘old-old’ school winter storm. Thought the snow totals were typos at first.

    14 February 1895 → Southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana were paralyzed during the Gulf Coast Blizzard that dumped 31 inches of snow in twenty-four hours in some areas. Some snow drifts were 6 feet deep. Galveston recorded an incredible 15.4 inches of snow and both Houston and Beaumont had a whopping 20 inches.

  5. c-BIV says:

    If you’re a snow lover, I suggest moving to the mountains or north of I-70! REAL winter no longer exists in Kentucky. No amount of negative NAO’s or Tennessee Valley lows, or ‘arctic’ anything is going to break this snow shield over us. Instead of us all telling our kids and grandkids about old school snows, we will all be saying, when I was your age, we used to get ankle biter snows, followed by warmer temps and rain. Or vice versa lol.

  6. Joey Wilson says:

    I predict KY is pretty much done with accumulating snow this season!

  7. Coffeady says:

    Ah…always a bridesmaid never a bride. That about sums it up for snow in Kentucky. Thanks, Chris. Appreciate all that you do. Have a great Friday, everyone!

  8. Andy Rose says:

    I like it temps busted on the low side today below freezing weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee sitting at 27 now we just have to get precip to fall

  9. LD says:

    It’s like the NAO forecast thinks that it’s still both seasonal and meteorological winter or something. So crazy!

  10. Israel says:

    If any of you don’t know what the NAO or th AO is, this should help you understand why negative phase means more cold and a more southerly storm track like the one CB posted.

    http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

    • bjenks says:

      Good to have the -NAO and -AO…BUT without the +PNA the southern storms will have trouble moving across the south and will instead cut towards the lakes. Weed need the +pna so these lows can stay to the south and go up the apps. and East Coast.

    • Joie says:

      Thanks Israel, the images are better in this article than the ones in my Meteorology Today textbook. This paragraph was in my book in the NAO section, p. 289:

      “Although the NAO varies from year to year (and sometimes month to month), it may exhibit a tendency to remain in one phase for several years. It is interesting to note that the NAO during the past 30 years or so has been trending toward a more positive phase.”

  11. Sarah says:

    Been snowing like crazy here in Boyd Co for the last 20 min. Big ole flakes. Trying to stick but I am sure will be gone in no time.

  12. BengalFan says:

    Big Storms = Rain

  13. bjenks says:

    To bad the PNA could not be positive. The NEG NAO and NEG PNA will only keep Kentucky in the cold rain. I can see blizzard watches going up through the midwest for next week. Hopefully this mega storm that is about to come on shore will move further to the south and include Kentucky in on the snow fun.
    THINK SNOW!!!! Sprint is almost here!

  14. Juniors Wife-From BFE says:

    Have eny of youe scene my husband on hear? He Ben saying its ginna snowe soon. Is that trew?

  15. rolo says:

    big snow flakes are sure pretty, biggest flakes Ive seen in a decade, too bad that all it is mixed with sleet/rain//

  16. Todd says:

    The weather channel just showed a winter storm map for south and North Carolina, several inches of snow even for myrtle Beach?
    This is proof of how snow will go way south to avoid KY!

  17. Russ says:

    Careful not to criticize those who look ahead to next week’s models. Some on here are sensitive to criticism and still believe in a winter storm that will hit Kentucky. I’d say that notion is up there with Santa Claus, the Easter bunny and the tooth fairy.

    • bjenks says:

      Russ is that little bell of yours still not ringing….LOL….As a matter fact the Easter Bunny brought my girls Valentines yesterday.

  18. troy says:

    Think I will set up my own computer weather model generator. Even though I wouldn’t know where to start….my model would be just as accurate as the GFS and the NAM. lol Anyway, no accumulating snows here in Kentucky for the rest of this season in my model and we’ll probably break 90 degrees bore the first day of summer as this scenario seems to be the new “norm”.

  19. Andy Rose says:

    Well lack of winter has caused the trees to bud around these parts already

  20. WendyT says:

    Cold rain and a few flakes, cold rain and a few flakes…..This has been a dismal winter. Glad it’s almost over and spring will be here soon.

  21. Aaron C. says:

    Snow showers to pick up tonight, especially after dark and across the eastern half of the state. Accumulations of around 1″ look possible.

  22. Ryan says:

    Very weird weather in Shelbyville! We had heavy sleet for a few minutes that covered the ground, then the sun came out and the temperature rose 4 degrees and it started snowing with big wet flakes coming down!

  23. Joie says:

    I enjoyed reading Joe Lundberg’s thoughts regarding the weekend storm and storm potential for next week:

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/weekend-storm-s/6216207

    • BubbaG says:

      From this, snow though seems more a north and north-east affair for the next week. We might get springlike storms next week, but a stark contrast to snow any expectations beyond what most of us have seen already- not much.

  24. KP says:

    The asteroid sailed over Indonesia –17,500 miles makes it the closest ever observed. So at least we don’t have to worry about that! I had to wonder this morning if NASA was not telling us the whole truth when I saw the damage done in Russia by the meteorite.

  25. Todd says:

    Nice snow squall in Frankfort temp went from 42 to 35 in just a few minutes

  26. WendyT says:

    It’s done nothing except spit a few drops here at my office in Nicholasville.

  27. Mike says:

    Richmond weather at its best! Cold rain………………………………..

  28. KP says:

    Today marks the 10th anniversary of my first real ice storm. That afternoon it was raining, cold, miserable but I do not recall any forecast of an ice storm. It was just another yucky day. That night we lost power, didn’t have any battery operated TV or radio, didn’t have a clue what was happening, and couldn’t get down our road due to dozens of trees being down. It was four days before we could get anywhere. I went straight to the YMCA for a hot shower.
    Bad memory!!!!

    • Mark says:

      I lived in Evansville IN during the 2009 ice storm.

      But I’ve chatted with others that experienced the central Kentucky ice event of 2003 and the Nashville/Memphis/northern Mississippi ice storm of 1994. I understand rural parts of Mississippi were without power for almost a month.

      In comparison, my power in 2009 was off less than a day (the apartment I lived in had much of its power lines underground). Evansville also had a bit more of a snow/sleet mix which lessened the ice accumulations somewhat, the ice was worse farther south, especially around Madisonville KY.

      Hope I never experience an ice storm as severe as 1994 or 2003.

      2009 was bad enough.

  29. Andy Rose says:

    Looks like snow chances next week went to rain chances looking at the 7 day

    • Russ says:

      In the words of Gomer, “Surprise, Surprise.” Winter is truly yucky and disgusting here in KY anymore. Just bring on spring and euthanize this thing already.

  30. Chris Mercer says:

    42 and sunny at 5:17 P.M. makes an arctic day? And after a low of 37? Last time I checked, this makes this day, technically, ABOVE normal in temps.

    • BubbaG says:

      I too am confounded by calling it arctic. 30′s for the next few days and teens at night seem like normal cold winter temps. Arctic would be teens in the day an close to zero at night.

      Perhaps it is a relative arctic front, since compared to the average temps, they ARE colder :)

  31. Joey Wilson says:

    My forecast is that we’re just about out of “next weeks” in Kentucky weather land! :(

  32. Mark says:

    Storm Prediction Center already has next Thursday with a chance of severe wx. The models are quite uniform even this far out. May be less a question of if there will be severe wx, more like exactly where.

    The Thursday severe wx threat area is currently just south of western Tennessee. Time may tell how this area will evolve, whether our area gets winter wx, or if we share severe t-storms/possible tornadoes with the deep south.

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep, as long as not snow, they are pretty good with outlooking that kind of stuff.

    • bjenks says:

      Come on Mark! You have to ask that question??? No winter wx for Kentucky. Either severe storms, cold rain, or cold and dry. No need to look at any models or maps…

  33. Todd says:

    So much for the snowy weekend, cold dry, then warm up and rain, the pattern from hell continues!

  34. Miss Kate says:

    well wasn’t that nice for the clouds and “stuff” to clear out just as the sun sets. well played Kentucky weather, well played.

  35. E-TownKY says:

    LOL. Everytime I read the comments its like I’m watching Marvin the robot on The Hitchhiker’ s Guide to the Galaxy movie.

  36. bjenks says:

    The latest GFS Snowfall map has over 10 inches of snow for the Ohio River Counties for 2/21/13…..LMAO…… WEEK OUT……

    If the PNA can go Positive with the -NAO we could get into the game. This storm is not even going to be on the table until early next week. It will change many of times. Something to look at though.

  37. Joey Wilson says:

    Why can’t we get a high pressure system over southern Canada pumping just enough cold air over our region to welcome a juicy low pressure system that goes from Mississippi up the Apps? Seems simple. Why won’t it happen?

  38. sue(flatwoods ky) says:

    just had a good snow shower come thru here. Earlier today we had HUGE snowflakes falling prob the size of 50 cent pieces, it was beautiful to see but just wish some of it had stuck around!!!!!!

  39. Sandman says:

    “That front will usher in a very wintry weekend complete with snow squalls, gusty winds and very cold temps.”

    Still waiting Patiently…

  40. Andy Rose says:

    Fog is making snow? LoL its foggy and we have snow flurries never seen that before

  41. Cosmokramer says:

    Where have you gone, Mr. Bailey….? Cuckoo-ca-choo, Mr. Bailey….

    Our 5 quick and dirty posts in a day have turned into one 24 hour post.

    Left our Morgan Middle Valentine Dance and had some ice on the windshield…..that’s all folks.

    Maybe we’ll have a meteor shower rather than a snow shower.

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