UPDATE
A WINTER STORM WATCH is now in effect Friday through Saturday morning for most of central and western Kentucky. This includes the Lexington and Louisville areas. I expect northern Kentucky to be added to this watch at some point this afternoon…
PREVIOUS UPDATE from 15 minutes before the one above
Good Wednesday afternoon. It’s becoming obvious we are dealing with a series of systems that will deliver a major winter blow to the bluegrass state from Friday through the upcoming weekend. This will likely result in significant snow, ice and rain for much of the state.
The models continue to trend colder, quicker on Friday and that sets the stage for significant amounts of snow, sleet and freezing rain for parts of central, northern and western Kentucky. The change from rain to this nasty stuff will take place from west to east Friday morning into the afternoon.
With confidence increasing for significant winter weather weather… I have put out a Winter Storm Threat and Alert for Friday into Friday night. Here’s the area of concern…
I will fine tune that as we get closer, but the risk for significant snow and ice certainly warrants this upgrade. Areas farther north and west in the Alert will see the highest amounts of ice and snow because you will switch over earlier in the day compared to those farther east.
Saturday night into Sunday morning has the potential to produce SIGNIFICANT ice for much of the state…
That is a potentially dangerous setup and one that we will have to keep a very close eye on in the coming days. The flood threat continues to be high across southern and eastern Kentucky, so we have a multi threat system to watch.
I will have updates as needed. Take care.
I imagine Nashville will miss out on all the fun this weekend. We are so good for being so close (yet so far). :/
Try living in Bardstown, KY….lol! We can’t get as much as one toenail covered in snow, but let an ice storm be in play, and BAM! It literally snows like crazy within a 10-12 mile radius all around us, but we turn into one big ice cube here!
I bet Nashville gets more frozen precip that SE KY does
Hey Andy, let’s go ahead and plant the gardens here in southeast Kentucky. Getting plenty of rain and mild weather, might as well get a huge head start. No snow for eastern and se KY this year folks. Don’t buy the hype.
I’m still a bit concerned about Nashville, especially Saturday night with the second wave as Nashville could get at least some freezing rain. Going to be a close call for Music City.
As Chris Bailey has touched on, far better to have sleet or snow than freezing rain. But at this time, central Arkansas, western TN (including Memphis) and far northwestern Mississippi could get the most ice, although western KY is not out of the woods.
Can we please get this one to be an underachiever??
Significant icing…does that mean it’s time to prepare for days without power?
Unfortunately, yes.
NWS Louisville holding a conference call in an hour at 1:30 EST. Here’s the link if you want to follow along with WAVE 3:
http://blogs.wave3.com/
Still two days out. Many things can and will change. I have seen winter storm warnings dropped to advisory level in two hours time. Started as rain with switchover by noon with 4-6 inches. Turned out all rain until late evening snow flurries. It just so happened on a Friday as well. Don’t like the comparison of the two. That was four years ago.
Much better run on the GFS than last run…Colder air more southeast…Map looks spot on so far from CB…Enjoy your snow/ice/sleet while us in the southeastern part curse’s the rain Gods…
I think what a lot of people are underestimating is how dense this cold artic air will be, once it starts pushing south it will win the battle and will be hard to be dislodged! This could cause some major ice problems!
Yep…I’ve not given up hope yet for Southeast part of the state… If models keep trending colder we may get lucky and switch over to something besides rain…Come on Artic express,Man up…
I wouldn’t hold my breath. Extreme disappointment for most, unless you like paralyzing ice storms, and that’s what north central KY is in line for. Enjoy folks…I’ll take my rain and springlike weather
NWS calling for 2-4 inches of snow in Frankfort with just a small amount of Ice!
It’s like I posted a comment above…if you’re in Nelson Co., you can always count on the dreaded ice storm. We can’t catch 6 or 9 snowflakes here! But if you’ve always wanted to visit Antarctica, then your fantasy is intact! LOL!
Debbie,
We lived in Bardstown for 20 yrs ( 81 to 01 and have seen some more large snow storms than a few ice storms during that time period.
I’m holding out an optimistic view that the daylight hours on Friday will offset the worst of any ice accumulations. After dark, all bets are off….
Yes the 2003 ice storm started as heavy rain early in the evening, then I remember leaving work at midnight, it had been pouring regular rain for hours, by midnight it was 32 and accumulating on everything, and it was heavy freezing rain all night, by morning, power was out…….AWFUL. No ice please, or no ice like that!
MarkLex you are exactly right, I remenber the storm at that time and it started out as rain and then it all broke out and here in Johnson County Ky like the other areas we were hit hard with ice, pouring ice like rain. Chris thank you so much for excellent job you do in keeping us all updated. You do excellent job!!!!!!
The 2003 freezing rain was forecast a week ahead of time because I was looking at the forecast for Valentine’s weekend to see when we wanted to make dinner reservations. Friday’s forecast was warm and rainy. Saturday’s forecast was freezing rain. I did not give it any thought except that it would not be good for driving.
It started freezing up well before dark at our house. (Bourbon County) We went out to feed the horses around 5 p.m. and it was already very icy.
Funny to think that we didn’t have phone service or internet for 8 days. Neither of our cell phones stayed charged and our landline was down. (we were on dial-up) We got all of our news from the Sue Wylie radio show!
No ice…no ice….no ice….I agree with all the posters. Winter comes and lately we can’t buy a snow event (at least in Mercer Co). If it is an ice event, game is on. Also, why do the models seem to be better about being accurate on ice events vs. snow events? Just curious.
Times like this I am glad for 2 woodstoves, 2 fireplaces, a gas stove and a candlemaking kit. 🙂
When I was a kid in Morristown, Tennessee, our very rarely used fireplace became a crucial refuge for heat and light during the infamous March 1993 blizzard. My brother, sister and I even managed to put our sibling rivarly on ice…….at least until the power was finally restored 😉 .
NWS Call
NWS CONFERENCE CALL– Latest on pending WINTER STORM
Click REFRESH to see the latest update.
Updates also on WAVE 3 Weather FACEBOOK PAGE
and on WAVE 3 Weather TWITTER PAGE
1:31 PM- Call has started… John Gordon (meteorologist in charge of NWS LOUISVILLE) is hosting.
1:32 PM- 100% of rain for the area Thursday…heavy rain Thursday night across KY especially.
1:32 PM- Cold air rushes in across SW IN late Thursday night. Perhaps as early as 10pm Thursday.
1:33 PM- Today is the day if you have any plans outside especially.
1:34 PM- Cold air moves in Friday across the entire region. Winter Storm WATCH is out from midnight Thursday night through 7am Saturday. This is the period of greatest winter weather impact.
1:34 PM- Southern counties in jeopardy for flooding.
1:35 PM- We may see an UPGRADE Winter Storm WARNING for the area as tonight.
1:35 PM – Confidence is HIGH for Southern IN for sleet/snow…either one could have signficant amounts.
1:36 PM- Ice is a concern for our SW counties…like Breckinridge.
1:36 PM- Confidence is high for school impacts across southern IN on Friday.
1:37 PM- Tougher call for KY schools as wintry weather arrives a bit later in the morning/early afternoon.
1:37 PM- There will be a sharp cutoff to the wintry weather to heavy rain across southern counties.
1:38 PM **** still watching late Saturday into Sunday. There is a risk for a “bunch” of freezing rain at that time.
1:38 PM– Mike Callahan with NWS now taking over the call.
1:39 PM- Want to mention the heavy rain for southern counties Thursday into Friday. IF the rain can fall at a decent rate, rivers should handle the heavy rain. We are at winter pool levels for most lakes/rivers. HOWEVER– if we see rain rates increase…rural flooding is possible.
1:40 PM- The Sunday system will provide ANOTHER 1-2 inches of rain (some freezing north of course). This will enhance the flooding for area rivers for early next week as a result of the heavy rainfall from BOTH systems.
1:41 PM- Joe Sullivan with NWS now taking over the call.
1:41 PM- Request made for HAM radio operators to come online/in early for these events.
Thanks Kat for posting that!
Things could change but it sounds like if you live in KY Round 2 could be worse than Round 1.
You are very welcome :), it seems it could be worse for us on round 2.
Here is the entire call
1:31 PM- Call has started… John Gordon (meteorologist in charge of NWS LOUISVILLE) is hosting.
1:32 PM- 100% of rain for the area Thursday…heavy rain Thursday night across KY especially.
1:32 PM- Cold air rushes in across SW IN late Thursday night. Perhaps as early as 10pm Thursday.
1:33 PM- Today is the day if you have any plans outside especially.
1:34 PM- Cold air moves in Friday across the entire region. Winter Storm WATCH is out from midnight Thursday night through 7am Saturday. This is the period of greatest winter weather impact.
1:34 PM- Southern counties in jeopardy for flooding.
1:35 PM- We may see an UPGRADE Winter Storm WARNING for the area as tonight.
1:35 PM – Confidence is HIGH for Southern IN for sleet/snow…either one could have signficant amounts.
1:36 PM- Ice is a concern for our SW counties…like Breckinridge.
1:36 PM- Confidence is high for school impacts across southern IN on Friday.
1:37 PM- Tougher call for KY schools as wintry weather arrives a bit later in the morning/early afternoon.
1:37 PM- There will be a sharp cutoff to the wintry weather to heavy rain across southern counties.
1:38 PM **** still watching late Saturday into Sunday. There is a risk for a “bunch” of freezing rain at that time.
1:38 PM– Mike Callahan with NWS now taking over the call.
1:39 PM- Want to mention the heavy rain for southern counties Thursday into Friday. IF the rain can fall at a decent rate, rivers should handle the heavy rain. We are at winter pool levels for most lakes/rivers. HOWEVER– if we see rain rates increase…rural flooding is possible.
1:40 PM- The Sunday system will provide ANOTHER 1-2 inches of rain (some freezing north of course). This will enhance the flooding for area rivers for early next week as a result of the heavy rainfall from BOTH systems.
1:41 PM- Joe Sullivan with NWS now taking over the call.
1:41 PM- Request made for HAM radio operators to come online/in early for these events.
1:43 PM- John Gordon is back.
1:44 PM- DRY day Saturday…sunny in fact. BUT…highs only in the 20s. No warming to melt.
QUESTION TIME:
JCPS up first— What is the timeline from rain to the wintry weather Friday? When you wake up Friday…likely rain in Jefferson County. 7-10am rain changes to freezing rain/sleet After 10am…likely all snow. End as light snow Friday evening.
Will ground temps help at start? At first yes, but that will change quickly throughout the day. Friday afternoon travel will be a mess in Louisville Metro.
* NOTE: there will likely be another conf call Thursday with updates.
Louisville Metro Public Works— When should we expect Saturday night/Sunday’s timing? Looks like after 3am Sunday morning…moving in from south. It may be slow moving at first…but 3am-throughout the day Sunday.
UK Police— Impacts on Monday morning? Ice on the ground likely there. We likely will not rise above freezing Sunday…into Sunday night—so problems Monday morning still expected.
Dubois/Orange County— We will see wintry weather by Midnight Thursday? Yes, could be a bit earlier…but likey midnight through the early morning Friday.
How much? 3-7″ of snow…with some sleet and ice (again for Friday morning)
Question about Wind? Not too much wind involved at this point. Right now..thinking 10 mph which will help but that will have to be watched.
Ice with first event— Major issues with power lines and such? Not too much expected with the first event. Watching area SW of Ft Knox areas of KY.
Ice with second event– More of a concern. Could see .25″ to as much as .50″ of ice. Locations and amounts will be fine-tuned. This could be a SIGNIFICANT event.
Will this be like 2009? As of right now…we are NOT looking at a repeat of that event. Monitoring.
Question from Green County. How does our area look for the first event? Heavy rain mainly for the first event. It may end as light snow Friday night. Advisory could be issued later for that risk. But mostly rain. The second event looks more threatening for ice in that area.
Conference calls question? Could we have more? We likely will have one Thursday. Possibly Friday/Saturday additional ones.
Question from Adair County. More rain or snow here? More rain. Low spots in Adair could see some flooding issues Thursday/Friday. More of an ice issue for Sunday.
When does the rain arrive? As early as tomorrow afternoon/evening. Through at least Friday night. May end as a little snow or freezing drizzle.
And Saturday? Cold day. Some sun. Saturday night/Sunday the concern for the 2nd event.
Question from Trimble Question. How much snow/ice accumulation for 2nd event? Too early to really call. Still focusing on the 2-4″ for the first one Friday. Isolated higher. But 2nd event still be evaluated.
Question from Hardin Area. What do expect? Rain Thursday/Thursday night. Mixture late Thursday night into Friday. Ending Friday evening as light snow.
What about 2nd event? Mainly concerned Sunday morning.
Question about warming up? If we get ice with these events…it will be COLD next week. It will be awhile.
QUESTIONS NOW going to the MEDIA
It appears this will be out of the area by 11pm Friday with first event? Yes, overall. But light snow and freezing drizzle may linger a bit.
Saturday night and Sunday— .25″ to .50″ of ice looks like a good bet. But you have 1-2″ inches of rain south of the river. Do you expect a changeover to all rain? Yes…it is possible..but this is a very tough call on surface temps. Just WAY too early to make that call yet.
** Note: Today is only Wednesday. We HAVE TIME to adjust these factors and forecasts. Keep that in mind.
Question about games in Bowling Green. Concerned about travel concerns for people traveling in that area. Even with Christmas parades taking place across southern KY. — Understand the concern..still time to move the WATCH/add WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…but still a bit of time from those decisions.
Note: We could have ICE STORM WARNINGS/WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES stretching from one end of our viewing area to the other. Location is key on both events.
Question from Kevin Harned– Concern about Friday night flash freeze and agian Sunday ice. — Yes, no doubt. Concern certainly Sunday is growing about that. We don’t want to downplay Sunday…but we are trying to focus alerts for the first system for now and will weave in concerns with 2nd system as we get closer.
Question from UL about the game in Cincy. Going up to the game? No problem. Just rain. But late Thurdsay night will be tricky near the Cincy game. Improves as you approach Louisville. But fans encouraged NOT to linger in Cincy or it will get more dangerous the longer you wait.
**** 2:17 PM Call has now concluded **** Thanks everyong.
Kevin and the rest of us are working on our thoughts and will have an update.
you guys need to get a life….seriously
Lets hope for snow or rain. But we can hope all we want, ITS GOING TO DO WHAT ITS GOING TO DO.
From the Q & A portion of the NWS Louisville conference call:
“Ice with second event– More of a concern. Could see .25″ to as much as .50″ of ice. Locations and amounts will be fine-tuned. This could be a SIGNIFICANT event.”
Not good. Not good at all.
At this time, areas like Hopkinsville KY, Clarksville and Jackson TN and especially Memphis could exceed .50 inch of ice, unfortunately.
here is a first call
http://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/p480x480/1463690_614721031908492_2004260080_n.jpg
Someone is on something!!!! I hope it turns out that away.
Whose map is this?
Looks like WxRisk.com. You can follow him on facebook.
Song of the day anyone? Do I need to say. Would hate to be in Memphis area the next couple days.
Walking in Memphis could be difficult… 🙂
Have not heard that song in ages. Guess I’m getting old 😉 .
Anyway, Memphis could have a repeat of its terrible 1994 ice storm.
nice one!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWDn2B-b7qQ
I’ve been singing that all week Andy.
Latest GFS is just showing a plain out nasty ice storm.
‘Reliable’ NAM 12z run sniffing the white stuff???
Louisville 8-12″??
Near double-digit snow depth for central KY??
I say wait 24 hours from now…Hopefully, models may start to agree on amounts.
conference call with NWS Jackson basically said eastern and se Ky would get nothing but plain old rain, and plenty of it …. Somerset and London could get up to 5″ of rain
here is the link to the NWS in Jackson web briefing, that is one heck of storm !!!
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=webbriefing
I wonder what we will see here in greenup county ky?? We are Thor most northeastern county in ky? Any thoughts?
Regardless of what happens this is a more active Nov and Dec than I can remember in quite some time. Maybe Jan and Feb will be the snow trendbuster central Ky has been waiting for.
The Bread & Milk alert is HIGH, I repeat HIGH ALERT
🙂
After spending the Thanksgiving holiday out of town, I’m in desperate need of groceries – the cupboard is bare! Now I’m going to have to stand in line with all the bread and milk shoppers, ugh.
eastern kentucky under a flood watch…
Getting more interesting. Additional winter storm watches have now been issued by NWS offices in Indianapolis, Nashville and Memphis.
In addition, NWS Jackson KY now has a Flood Watch out.
Is there any chance SE/KY could get enough cold air in here to support some snow instead of an all rain event?
anything is possible
You should get some snow but this will be primarily rain event for se ky. County’s bordering the Ohio River might get belted with snow so lucky them I guess lol
what do you think about greenup country prelude? we are the most northeastern country in kentucky..we border ohio.
Corey as of now 4-8 inches of snow seems reasonable
winterstorm watch now for northern kentucky into ohio. Cincy is included. Here in greenup we are under a flash flood watch but we are bound to be under a winter storm watch.
It got 70 here today according to the Bank Sign lol.I took in the Tanning Bed and enjoyed my Spring Day since I am never going to see snow,I could go to my Sisters in Indy maybe then I would see it.Hopefully I wont float off.
Most of these models are showing 6-10″ for the Louisville area. I highly doubt we get anywhere close to that.
I can see it happening if Louisville rapidly changes to snow
As a life long Louisville resident, I’ve seen this song and dance too many times to get excited. What does surprise me is the consistency with which the GFS, Euro, Canadian, and NAM all show big snow/sleet hits for the city and yet the forecast remains the same it’s been for decades: a close call with rain/sleet/snow all in the mix.
Winter Storm WARNING now for much of western Kentucky! Bring it!!!
I’m beginning to wonder if their will ever be a winter storm that comes into KY that just says SNOW! It always has to be rain, sleet, freezing rain, MIX! It just seems the days of a system coming in as snow start to finish is a thing of the past from the 70s or 80s???
How much snow is being predicted for the Lexington key area?
At this point 1 to 2 inches because of a lot of freezing rain………at least that’s what I’m seeing from what I’ve read……but I don’t think they know for sure what the exact temp profiles will be so that could change, so it’s still a guessing game I’m sure.
CB has tweeted about the ridiculous warmth ahead of the upcoming cold.
Indeed, the KY Mesonet recorded 75 in Russellville KY!
Nashville TN also reached 75 earlier today. Many Vanderbilt students were wearing shorts!
Crazy, considering that harsh winter conditions are just around the corner.
In what may be a bad omen, parts of Arkansas are now under an Ice Storm Warning.
I’ve convinced the boyfriend to come with me to get supplies just in case. Nine days without power in 08 makes me want to be prepared.
Any predictions or guess for berea anyone?