Good Wednesday, friends. All eyes continue to be on a prolonged, high impact event starting Thursday and lasting into early next week. Snow, Ice and flooding rains will all be possible across Kentucky and surrounding areas.
We will go into Winter Storm Threat mode later today as I get a better handle on exactly what parts of the state to include in this. Winter Storm Watches are already out for western Kentucky and more will likely follow before the day is finished. Throw in some Flood Watches and you have the makings of a busy weather map to come.
The action gets started with rain breaking out on Thursday as our arctic front rolls into the region from the west. This will have a mega temp gradient from one side of this to the other. The cold will continue to push eastward into Thursday night and Friday and this means a change to snow, sleet and freezing rain for many. Here’s a first look at how that transition plays out…
Timing and location will play a huge roll in what kind of precipitation you see during the above time frame. With temps dropping into the 20s from west to east during the day and evening… travel is likely to be impacted.
Arctic temps move in Friday night and Saturday as we find ourselves in between waves. Some models take temps as low as the high single digits and low teens in the north and west to start the day. Highs will generally run in the 20s. This arctic air in place is a bad, bad thing for Saturday night into early Sunday. That’s when moisture arrives from the next system and that is likely to be in the form of freezing rain and sleet for many. It is this time period that I am very worried about several areas getting in on a decent ice event. Let’s hope sleet wins out instead of freezing rain. Here’s the breakdown…
I continue to be very concerned with the potential for stream and river flooding across southern and eastern Kentucky through Monday. These areas may pick up better than 5″ of rain and that could be enough to force some rivers into flood. The Ohio River Forecast Center is highlighting this risk…
Please keep a close eye on the high water potential in the coming days.
Many of the models continue to develop some kind of 4th wave of low pressure late Monday into early Tuesday. The European Model continues to be the most impressed with this potential and really likes it as a snow maker for the eastern half of the state.
That precedes a potentially bitter blast of arctic air for Tuesday and Wednesday. Check out the numbers from the GFS…
I’m not sold we get THAT cold, but the potential is there.
As you can see, we have a lot on the table over the next several days. We have multiple precipitation types that will impact the state, so don’t get focused on just one.
I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
This is looking more and more like December of 2004 but in two waves. If everyone remembers that event, areas from Paducah up to Cincy got over a foot of snow, SE of that line got mainly sleet/ice, and SE of that heavy rain. The map Chris just put up there looks very similar to where that system set up. I remember during the worst of that system it was 19 with heavy snow in Paducah, 33 and raining in Lexington, and in the 60’s in Jackson.
Yes, 22 inches of great white in my backyard on Dec 22, 2004! Best ever I’ve seen! If only again!
I was thinking the same thing. It’s looking an awful lot like that same setup – rain followed by cold, followed by more rain, then more cold for CKY, while an hour away will get hammerd by snow. If that’s what we’re in for (and the track record of the last 16 winters indicates we are), then count me out!
Reading the NWS Louisville AFD makes me think this isn’t a big deal. Only calling for an inch of snow around the Ohio River with a little sleet mixed in. Sunday if it warms up like they think rain will wash away any ice. If it doesn’t warm up then might have problems.
It seems more a chance for the heavier mix/ice if north of the Kentucky river and the the usual I65 & I75 cut offs. Seems more of an event for people north of the Fence. Seems if a colder trend, the maps CB shows would be more south by now.
Three “seems”.
The new NAM models are really impressive. Especially for county’s that border the Ohio River.
At least we are keeping our long trends in line 😉 …. 🙂 Unless snow up there and ice down here 🙁
Whatever the result, the fence is over Kentucky and the usual center-ish position. St Louis has an arch that is the gateway to the west, and we have the fence for winter event transition.. No doubt now a permanent “monument” of winter for us.
I for one find myself not caring as much about snow and just hoping Bubba runs out of ways of saying it isn’t going to snow.
CB is thinking this (for now) in this post. Mainly rain, ice and sleet for most of us. North of I64 might get more snow in the mix, but as he states- depends on the cold air.
Considering next week’s temps, I’ll take all plain ol’ rain. You can keep the ice.
Well if you believe in the GFS last run it didn’t impress me done…Unless you like rain…Seems like the GFS always has the North/west shift 2 days before an event…But in this case with all the so called artic air don’t see how the freezing line gets pushed back …I could be wrong but this is my take on things…
If I try to comment more than one sentence, it won’t post.
Sorry man, that happens and thats why when I’m ready to post a comment, I ALWAYS copy it before posting so I dont lose 5 paragraphs of writing only so it can disappear in our virtual world wide web.
WSAZ is calling for rain only in eastern KY… no mention of ice or snow.
Just yesterday, trends were showing colder air earlier & deeper, now this looks like nothing more than a boring Ohio River Valley Winter rain. Wake me when somebody sees a snow flake & the temperature is below freezing for more than about 5 minutes.
All this can only mean one of two things… These forecasts are real, or the models have all been smoking meth.
Judging by the latest nam runs and if the runs keep going the way they are north central KY looks to go into a Winter Storm Watch by afternoon one would think. Im surprise nobody has commented on the NAM runs yesterday it was showing nothing but as of late yesterday and the overnight runs it really change its tune and has western and north central ky get a heck of alot of snow. Model seems to be starting to converge and agree county’s bordering the Ohio River looks to be the bullseye. As of now.
I love the trends if the majority of the precipitation falls as snow in Louisville. I could see between 4 to 6 inches per gfs. remember the nam has tendencies 2 inflate precipitation totals.
John Belski just updated his blog about half an hour ago with what the latest models are saying as far as snow totals for Louisville. This is pulled directly from his blog:
“NAM: The NAM has shifted the heavy snow south by more than 75 miles in the last 24 hours. 24 hours ago it had little or no snow for Louisville. Now it has 6-10 inches for the Louisville area with the heaviest over the northern suburbs.
GFS: 24 hours ago the GFS had 2-4 inches of snow for Louisville.
Now it has 4-6 inches with 6-8 over the northern suburbs.
CANADIAN: 24 hours ago it had 6-8 inches for Louisville.
Now it has 3-6 for Louisville with 6-10 for the northern suburbs.
ECMWF: 24 hours ago it had 6-8 inches for Louisville. Now it has 6-8 inches.”
I wonder what he means by northern suburbs.
Usually meaning our viewing area.. Roughly 25 miles north of Louisville
The northern suburbs of Louisville.
HHHMMM by the looks of the 06Z GFS it has the freezing line north of Ohio River all the way through Sunday. Not until hour 132 does it move into Kentucky. Hope I am wrong, but that is what it seems to be. COLD DECEMBER RAIN for us in Kentucky
No it doesn’t
Hopefully not. Still not sure the cold air will reach past the Ohio River before Saturday Morning.
I don’t have any doubts about that not happening watch and see my friend
I wonder which model Christie D. From Wave-3 is looking at. She came right out and didn’t waver when saying Louisville will get less than one inch out of this entire system and the heavy stuff would fall closer to Indy.
The real amazing part is with most of these snow systems you could have 4 different forecasts and sometimes 2 different forecasts on the same weather station. You can’t blame the viewers for being confused and frustrated when this type of forecasting happens.
Im nor sure om what she is looking at model wise and to be honest she probably doesn’t know either. The NAM,GFS,Canadian,ECMWF are all saying something completely different than what she is forecasting
Probably, she borrowed information from NWS Louisville, who is suggesting 2-4″ snow amounts over parts of southern IN and closer to an inch along the Ohio River.
However, even NWS admits it is a low confidence forecast as these types of overrunning events are difficult to forecast.
I pretty much knew she read almost verbatim what NWS had posted early this A.M.
I just didn’t want to be so blunt lol.
You have a case where Christie comes on this morning and says one thing and the Noon it Evening crew could have an entirely different forecast. I actually am leaning more with Brian Good on this one and feeling more confident of 4″ or more in the Louisville area. However, that ice is making me nervous. I don’t want to see a repeat of Jan ’09
I don’t live in Louisville but I’ll be watching Louisville’s webcams looks like Louisville is going to be in a sweet spot
Rain?!?! Doesn’t suprise me any!! I’ve learned to never get my hopes up when I hear the S word!! 😛
I SAID RAIN 4 DAYS AGO, it doesn’t take that much to figure it out! will snow along the ohio river(probably north of it, then on the back end majority of us on here will get 1/2 inch of snow! Rain is no doubt the safe bet!
THE MAJORITY OF THE ABOVE MAP, THE WORD RAIN IS MENTIONED MOST FOR MAJORITY OF THE STATE OF KY! So yes, worry about floods, not SNOW!
Is this your attempt at reverse psychology? I only ask because if you already know what it’s going to do, why even come to the blog and read it?
You were late to the party 😉
I guess this blog does get my mind off things though. But its kind of self punishment when I want it to SNOW so bad!
CB keeps posting about a colder model trend, but the maps here and other met forecasts show mainly rain, unless North of I64 and especially North of the Ohio river.
Maybe that is what CB us referring to for Kentucky, but being general about it in tweets makes people think it is a lot more than that. I will happily take the rain over ice, so I am fine with warm air being the main player for our precipitation. It always is anyway.
Y don’t u just wait an see attitude.we have to anyway…or do u all have to buy tons of groceries…like everyone else does when they hear a forecast of bad weather… (:
Will be rain. I had hoped it would’ve been different but it’s always just rain.
Why doesnt the NAM get mentioned much in blogs? Does it not do well in winter setups?
The nam was the outlier with this upcoming system so it wasn’t forgotten necessarily however the nam starting coming around in the evening runs last night and now it’s pretty much aligning itself up with the other models. Which is good because of the unified agreement with the other models.
The NAM is also a short range model unlike the Euro and GFS that go out several days. The NAM is really only for a day or two out.
We are indeed a day or two out
Seems that confidence is buliding, at least when it comes to the ice threat. Wave 3 here in Louisville just updated their blog. Headline is “Dangerous Weekend Travel”. It shows several different model maps with snowfall totals:
GFS: Up to 1 inch for Louisville
NAM: 4 – 6 inches for Louisville
RPM: 3 – 5 inches for Louisville.
They are waiting for the next round of model runs before making their snowfall forecast. Here’s the link if anyone is interested in reading the entire entry and looking at the pretty pictures!
http://blogs.wave3.com/
Actually, those NAM and GFS models are not the actual “new” 12z forecast models. Both the NAM & GFS are coming in higher. 8″ on the NAM now and 6″ on GFS.
Brian Goode has just given a 7 for his Twix index, which is in honor of Belski’s famous bread index. 1 to 10 scale. 10 being a shut down the city type event.
This sounds even better than the information I posted. Thanks for the update.
The trap has been set again, and you guys and gals have fallen into it. Don’t buy the hype, save yourselves the collective pain.
This is what will happen (going by the last 15 years worth of trends). Southern Indiana will get buried, not unlike the 2004 December winter storm. Ice and sleet accumulations for the border counties along the Ohio River. Fr Rain turning to mostly rain event for central Kentucky, and, you guessed it, flooding rains for southern and se Kentucky. The cold, of course, will make a two day stay followed by the third wave, which will be rain again. Like i said folks, enjoy Santa’s fun rain storm. Only in Kentucky…aka, Seattle.
What trap? No mets in Kentucky are talking much about much snow, but about mainly ice and a lot of rain.
If the trap premise is being “let down” missing ice, trap me now! 🙂
Just watched wave3 midday, they are saying things are trending colder and as much as 6-8 inches of snow might be possible their, NWS just goes by trends of KY which for them means IBWISI 🙂
And then I read this. If they were talking central Kentucky, I would say they’re drunk. That is unless you refer to areas closer to the Ohio River or I64. Too much met talk about ice and rain for snow to be a big factor for most beyond those areas.
Unless as big a surprise as Billy Gillespie turning down a Budweiser, snow should be a minor fair for most others.
Winter storm watch just issued for most of state, excluding JKL counties.
NWS has just stepped it up a notch! It is on now!