Good Tuesday evening, gang. A WINTER STORM WATCH has already been issued for western Kentucky for Thursday night into Friday. Here’s a look…
That is likely to be the first of many issued for Kentucky through the next several days. Snow and ice will impact this region first Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC has this region outlooked for a high risk for ice during this time…
The snow and ice line will continue to collapse eastward during the day on Friday. The GFS continues to come around to a colder, faster solution during that time period. The European Model has been showing that cold air from the start and it looks like the GFS is running home to it.
Many of you are talking about the snowfall totals coming in from the European Model. Here’s what’s getting all the attention…
I suspect there may be an algorithm problem because I simply can’t see those types of totals with such a messy setup. That said… the GFS isn’t getting too far away from that…
The following GFS maps are just plain nasty…
Look… this is going to get super messy over an extended period of time. We will fine tune as we get closer.
Take care.
I am getting scared for ya’ll in Kentucky. While ya’ll want to see a lot of snow, the model runs keep showing all that ice and such. Be careful what you wish for. You might get it in a way that you don’t want. Meaning, with the snow, ice seems to be included. Just in case, prepare yourselves!
Always prepared for ice and snow just cant stop the flood waters
nobody can predict what’s going to happen. good luck Chris
Friday is the state football finals in Bowling Green. Scott County plays at 7:30pm. Not sure I want those buses traveling on the roads if all that ice really happens.
I get a sick feeling at the mere mention of freezing rain. Eight days with no power in 2003 & seven days with no power in 2008. Not fun. 🙁
However, I am delighted to see that my Bourbon County has a different color than every county around it on the freezing rain map. It shows that we will get less than every neighboring county. 🙂
What’s the amount of ice generally tolerable before trees start snapping?
Good luck to all of us!!!
I would say a lot depends on the trees. Pines generally don’t have deep roots so it would take less for those to topple than others
Generally, 0.25″ is getting to be to much. Once you reach a half an inch if your power doesn’t go out then you’re lucky!
silly question… is the freezing rain/sleet on the outer edge of the above maps, in the green? or is it in the center of the maps, in the lightblue/light purple color?
The colors on the freezing rain/sleet maps above simply mean ice accumulation. The green would be least while the blues and purples mean heavier (where ice has fallen the longest or heaviest). If you’re in the blues and purples you’re basically right in the middle of the ice accumulation. The darker the colors means the more ice accumulation. It works very similar to the snow fall accumulation maps posted just above those.
0z will be quite interesting. all these models would make great poker players. which one is bluffing which one is going all in.
I would bet a dollar against a doughnut hole we don’t get a major snow storm (8 inches plus) in the Lexington metro. However, the odds of an ice storm are pick-up. Since 2003, we’ve seen two major ice storms (2003 and 2009) and NO major snow storms. Who wants to best against the ice???
Depends on the area
I think someone is going to get a whole lot of snow. Probably southern indiana. I think Louisville snow totals will be cut down because of possible mix. Reminds me a lot of storm had about ten years ago. Someone gets over ten inches of snow
Does anyone have a freezing rain scale to
show the depth of freezing rain that
corresponds with the damage that it causes?
I cannot seem to locate one on the Internet.
Thanks ahead of time!!
🙂
Don’t have a scale but i would say .25 would break dead limbs…Then .50 would probably break limbs and knock out power…Anything over that then you’re probably looking at the weight of ice snapping the lines… Of course wind would make it worse…
Thank you ready 4 snow!
That is definitely the kind of information I was looking for!
Freezing rain looks like it could be a monster for many people in this Commonwealth!
Stay safe!
Thx again!!
I think this is a fairly good metric to use. Of the ice storms I’ve experienced, two were around a half an inch and there were only a few spotty and short-lived power outages in town on both occasions.
The worst I’ve experienced was about .75 inch in Evansville IN a few years ago; a lot more tree limbs and power lines were downed.
I understand that parts of Mississippi had several inches of ice in 1994 and some areas didn’t get power back for weeks.
You might want to be wary if you use FedEx air shipments later this week as their Memphis hub may be knocked out by the ice for a while. FedEx likely has some backup plans like diverting some of their traffic to their other hubs like Indianapolis.
Ditto UPS regarding their Louisville hub.
I knew I had seen this somewhere!
From NWS Memphis:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=ice_impact_index
Mark,
Thank you so much!
Very helpful info!
I have to say, this blog has snagged me and I am totally hooked! I have been checking in multiple times daily to catch Chris’ updates. Having said what a fan I am of Chris’ forecasts, let me say that I am definitely NOT a fan of freezing rain. I have my fingers crossed that the power will stay on, but considering past ice events, I am not feeling especially optimistic. Good luck everyone!
Warmth will win the day again. Southern and central Ind
Get buried. Wraparound flakes for central Ky and plain
ole rain for the east. Merry Christmas and
Enjoy Santa’s old school rain storm
Yep, same ol song and dance for us, and I dont see it changing anytime soon either.
That would be about right, considering for most of us it was the 20th century since we got a big snow. Really.
I am a pacifist for this event! I do not want ice or a big snow. Ice for obvious reasons and a big snow since I have to shovel it out of my driveway that goes up a hill. My kids are older now, so the “magic” of family fun is long gone and replaced by their own social circles. My sentimental feelings for snow have been replaced with the practicality of removing the stuff.
Nope, I will take a mega rain, but just enough to not cause flooding for people. Winning! 🙂
Of course, we will probably get rain to soften the ground, followed by rain, then ice/sleet and Finally, a little topping of snow. Just enough topping added on top to bring all the weak trees and power lines with it too.
As we know, the models suck sour lemons for snow, but get all accurate on us when it comes to ice. Word.
I hadn’t thought about that but 16 years ago when we all started following this blog I had kids that loved snow. Now their social circles, college being one of them have them going different directions also. I do have a 12 year old that was an infant during the big ice storm in lexington where we were without power for 6 days in Versailles. Don’t want to see that happen again. Point is now that we see snow as more work than fun the trend could possibly end this winter.
Irony! It’s what’s for dinner.
This link is from the Little Rock NWS website.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=iceindex1314.htm
For some reason..I have a gut feeling that the cold is gonna prevail…
Don’t fall for the worthless models. They only lead to hype and heartache. The trend the past decade or two has been for warmth, why would it change now?
Bryant its pretty blatantly obvious the pattern is alot different than before it’s not even winter and WSW are in effect. Sub zero temps on the way. All of last year we weren’t even coming close to what we have experience this early in the game.
Not at all buying it, Prelude. Rumors of storms, awesome model runs, advertised cold shots that were “supposed” to rival the 70’s that instead turn into 2 day runs of cold weather then a return to warmth. When the board erupts in depression this weekend after the storm drops rain, and a quick shot of cold, I’ll be the one who told you so. The models are crap, and and there’s not a pro met out there that can predict winter weather in Kentucky. It’s just impossible
I hope the models ARE wrong since ice appears to be a common denominator. All hands up for the trend of misses to continue! 🙂
Except unlike snow, the trend for ice in forecasts is pretty darn accurate.
wont be our problem here in the south. nothing but rain, and will be the story the rest of the winter here in winter-less KY
Lucy grab the football!!!!
No matter what we get,someone will complain. Myself included. Lol. I wish we could each create our own individual weather for our own house.
Think positive folks it is early in the season, just to be in the possible line of a winter storm is interesting for so early (fall) this winter is going to throw some punches that might just land before its over!
Noooooo, why must we always be in the ICE zone??? Ugh.
I’m with bryant. I only see rain as a possibility with this system and again on Sunday’s.
Ice rain.
River flood outlook. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/fop.html
this could be different. I cannot remember an Arctic front Stalling in Tennessee.
I wish it would stall all the way into March. that would guarantee all of us would get more than enough snow for the year. we could turn Kentucky into Buffalo. ok back to reality the trend lines appear to B in favor for cities along the Ohio River. we will see what the euro and GFs brings at 12.
btw this reminds me of a spring type situation which sometimes brings us a major snow accumulation. this is a different type phasing event than your usual winter event.
And probably with warm in position for the fence area to cause ice. The fence for this event could be pure barb wire. How is that for hype?
this situation is so out of the ordinary that we might pull out a trick from the Hat. I’ve been thinking for years that the only way it would snow here in Kentucky for the majority of the state. would have to come from a freak of nature.
Southeast ridge is the reason cold air stalls out. And as we all know so well that the warm generally wins out. Throw out the models. It is all about the trends with this one. Cold rain south of river snow north.
The fence as always will be I-64.
No one knows what’s gonna happen..we’re just gonna have to look
Out our windows when the time comes and see what’s falling from the sky
Bingo! 🙂
Corey, your comment iis by far the best and most accurate this blog has ever seen. No matter how good a mets forecasting skills and the technology he or she may use, mother nature will always be smarter and one step ahead.
really feel that cb is going to be let down by this. as for us southeast Kentuckians, this one is flooding rains
Yep….that’s has been the story for the entire year here in little Seattle.
Lol appreciate ya kindly Troy…I mean I’m not gonna lie..it’s always interesting reading Chris’s blog, but at the end of the day..God and good ol Mother Nature are the only ones that know what’s gonna happen!
some people have to learn to pull themselves away from the snow side of things especially if you’re forecast to get mostly rain!! I’d watch out though, this event is a headache and will likely spring a few surprises and they may be what you don’t want!! ICE