Good Tuesday, folks. The GFS continues to see the arctic cold air that’s in play and is slowly coming around to the colder solution put forth by the European Model. Get us within 36-48 hours and I suspect most models will be able to gauge the impact of the cold much better.
Watch the GFS progression of the snow and icy mix across the state on Friday…
That’s not exactly the best resolution in the world, but it gives you an idea of what I’m talking about. The model now takes most areas into the upper 20s by evening and has teens around Saturday morning with highs in the upper 20s and low 30s.
After a break in the action on Saturday… the icy mix and snow returns late evening and takes us into Sunday. It’s at that point we will need to see how the models play the low level arctic air. I assure you… they will change as they get closer to that next wave.
Taken with a grain of salt, the GFS snowfall map through Sunday…
We always take those with a grain of salt, but that’s especially true when dealing with transitions and so many different precipitation types.
The flooding threat continues to be high across southern and eastern Kentucky this weekend and is one folks should take seriously. We are likely to get into a situation where Winter Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches are out for parts of the state. Maybe some of these overlap?
BTW… the models are trying to hint at a snow wave by Tuesday as even colder air moves in.
Have a great day and take care.
It seems to me that we should include Trends when looking at models as well. The Trends says that it will mostly be rain for majority of KY! Would you agree?
I support this message
Belski says that if it is snow you want, the model trends are not want you want. None of the Louisville stations or NWS appear ready to get on the snow/ice and cold train just yet. Checking WKYT website, neither are they. Go with the trend and the trend says a cold rain. Beats freezing rain any day.
that’s a bummer if John Belski is not on the Snow Train because I think he is the only met that likes snow more than Chris.
Our local mets on wsaz are saying it’s just gonna be a rain event
Rain event for most of us in Ky. Maybe next time we’ll see some snow. Its always maybe the next time. Right?
Micah just showed mostly rain??
because as of now it going be rain, mix from LEXINGTON SOUTH and east. there nopt going forcast on model runs as far as there real day to day forcast goes. WARM AIRALWAYS wins out the last 15 years.
Get ready for a ping pong match…mix to snow at night & rain during the day…especially the farther South you go.
mix with 30′s shouldn’t mean that bad of weather?
I think it was also said that high confidence in HEAVY RAIN and Flooding for southern and eastern ky….I think that will be majority of KY, how far north is south..I believe it will rain all the way up to Dry Ridge…Pretty much like this last system NOT COLD ENOUGH! Until last 1/2 inch!
Winter Storm watches going up in Arkansas, As Chris stated recently the models do a poor job picking up on the artic air, this system might bite a few METs that are underplaying the potential!
I’d say it’s a fairly safe bet that eastern KY will see mainly rain thru Friday, but northern KY and I-65 and west could be in for a lot of ice and/or snow. The models will zig and zag for the next 48 hours.
Well, Joey, I think you’re right…but I do know that here in Nelson Co. (as is the norm..), it will snow like crazy within a 12 mile radius of us, and we will get the usual 3″ of ice…lol! It drives me nuts when all the ppl in L-Ville complain because they “never get any snow”….I’d like to know what they’re on when they see half a foot or better nearly every time it does snow?!
Debbie…..it has not snowed over six inches in a single storm here in Louisville in over three years. Ice storm is last storm over six inches and three of it was sleet. So we are in the same boat as you in Nelson co.
Nashville NWS now saying accumulating snow likely in that area Friday night, Ok if that is the case most of KY will be snow Friday Night!
I simply want to say this,
Forecasting is not easy by any means, especially this time of the year. The dynamics of the atmosphere are very complicated, and winter storms themselves are developed very differently from other storm systems. That being said, Chris Bailey, and ALL Meteorologists across the region are doing their best to serve their community by bringing you a forecast, AND letting everyone know what’s on the table. With Kentucky being where it is geographically located, winter storms can become headaches to forecast, and the last thing a Meteorologist wants to be undermined, bashed, and questioned by the very people he is trying his very best to serve and protect. After all, if he said this would be all rain, and the wintry weather came in, everyone would say he “dropped the ball” for not noticing it earlier.
Now I understand, it’s a blog. Feel free to comment. Free speech is open. As a meteorologist, you are put out there to be ridiculed by many, and praised by very few, since we “never” get a forecast right. But keep in mind when commenting, meteorologists are doing their very best to SERVE the communities in which they are forecasting for.
I agree with you
well said sir!
If this were FaceBook, I’d be hitting the
We’ll have to wait and see…
Well, Kentucky winter law states that most precipitation for any system falls before freezing temps arrive. Will this system be a law breaker?
As far as Arkansas and other areas to our south west, they have actually had bigger snows than us for some time. The snow lasts about 24 hours and melts, but they get it.
Seems lunch time met discussion in general are suggesting ice for the mid section of the state, with snow above it and rain/mix below it for Friday. Be interesting to see CBs update. Will thoughts turn to alert mode?
The trend of discussion seems right now to be leaning towards a significant event. For now, at least. I will take rain over ice, thank you.
probably would would go to threat mode first!! I’m not sure that will happen today!
12z euro remained consistent with snow potential
One of the things the models have a very hard time picking up on and so do most mets is the ground temps. It takes time to cool down objects and the ground that is in the mid to upper 40’s for temps. Then add to that large amounts of moisture in the form of flooding rains, water heats slower that ground, put the 2 together… I love winter and snow and wish there was a computer powerful enough to take all these factors into consideration at the same time. I suppose that is why there are so many different models.
Would someone please so kind as to provide me a link to the different model snowfall forecast maps? Thanks! 🙂
http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm
Some may not like Freezing rain but i rather have a 2 inch ice storm (Prefer snow) than an ocean coming through the living room door…You can survive an ice storm but a flooded house disrupts your life for a long,long time..So i say bring on the ice (prefer snow) instead of flooding rains…
I love a good ice storm…think its fun and rustic to pull out the candles and blankets and off the electricity.
I hate ice..id much rather just get the snow! I remember the big ice storm we had several years ago…it was devastating here in greenup…i didnt have power for almost a month!
My mantra for the next few days…..ABI…anything but ice.
Hope some snow will slide over into the central Virginia area!
Are you in the Shenandoah Pamela? We lived in DC for 16 years and made a couple trips a month out to the Blue Ridge and Va wine country. It is good to be back home in Ky, but we sure miss the beauty and variety of things to do in central Virginia.
Latest Euro snowfall forecast says snow, not ice, and lots of it. 8-12 inches for most of KY, with Lexington and Louisville in the sweet spot—12-18 inches.
That would be super awesome considering I am off work this weekend haha. Bring it!
I might be wrong, but I think that was the total accumulation from Dec 3-12.
If I believed the Euro every time it paints a picture of snow for Kentucky we all should average 70 inches a year of snow. The Euro is nothing but a unrealistic eye candy model that creates a lot of hype and us usual the Euro’s bark will be worst than its bite. There’s a legitimate shot that Friday might be all rain and the artic front gets here as most of the moisture departs. Sounds familiar? The NAM as of now it’s a outlier granted shows nothing but rain for KY.
I agree 100%.
Lexington seems to be in the middleish. From what I’ve seen, Lexington would most likely be the place to see flood watches and winter storm watches overlap.
Oh my God, BTW, the latest Euro shows temps dropping significantly after the possible Tuesday storm CB mentioned! If it were to verify, we’d be talking about TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS!!! it shows 14 BELOW for Lexington mid next week! If only…
The only way I see that happening is if we have snow cover.
The Euro thinks that KY will be buried in snow which is not happening. Whatever the Euro is on I would like to have a double shot of it. Euro is such a happy snow loving model. lol
can you imagine those temps after an ice storm knocks out power. It would be a nightmare scenario.
We’ve not seen temps that Low in Lexington since February of 1996–and we had a deep snow cover when it happened. Other times I remember it–December of 1989 and January of 1985–all with deep snow cover.
yea we WIULL NEVER SEE 10 below much less 5 below without a snowpack. Andy is right.
Yawn….another model fizzout. Rain rain rain.
I think, unless you live in northern Kentucky or southern Indiana, this will be very disappointing. But, this is what we do every Winter, get pumped over a few eye candy EURO models and buy into the hype. I guess we’ll never learn. I’ve noticed in the past few years that the models look wonderful 2-3 days out, then suddenly reality sinks in and the warm air wins again. If most of the models converge on one solution within 24 hours, I’d say it’s game on. But for you folks thinking that Lex to Lou will pick up 1′, I say dream on, it just won’t happen. In fact, I would prepare myself to get used to a ton of rain followed by a 2-3 day cold snap that pales in comparison to the true arctic outbreaks we saw in the 1970’s to 1980’s.
You are right, seems like another cold rain with a little nuisance frozen stuff here or their, but if this spares us a major Ice storm I’ll take it!
Bryant I understand your position and I do not believe in the foot of Snow Fairy tale. but I do have a gut feeling that this is going to pan out for Louisville and Lexington. I mean we are way overdue for a miraculous 50 foot jump shot with a second left on the clock.
Fwiw I just listened 2 TWC met( sorry I forgot his nam) on another news program he said it might be snow in Dallas instead of ice. TWC might be going for the colder solution.
With all the snow forecast cynicism in this thread, Darth Bubba might have enough Dark Side energy to start another Death Dome.
The last system under achieved so if the warm air wins this battle, Dome 2 snow lover 0 so far this year!
Any snow before Thanksgiving is hardly and under achievement
When they predict 2 to 4 inches and you get less than a half inch, that is a underachiever any time of year!
Winter Storm Watch out for Western KY I just noticed on Weather.gov
Yes, shocked me to see a WSW this far out. I’ve lived in Paducah NWS area for most of my life and don’t remember a WSW 48 hours from a possible event.
Afternoon discussion basically says model consistency for high impact precip and temps at or below freezing warrants a WSW 48 hours out.
Not the snow type though…
thanks Chris and bloggers….
pretty wild stuff considering it’s not winter yet
saw a ton of people getting their Christmas lights out today…trying to beat the rain/ice/snow….yikes!
Yawwwnnnnnn..Did someone mention snow…Lets see what’s that phrase everyone like to mention…Oh yea..IBIWICI…
Yeah that’s the one that Chris said was getting old a few days ago.
people..its early..lived all my life in southeastern Kentucky (and proud of of it)….our best snows typically are in January..Feb…and if we are lucky..early March…I’m 50 years old..and have been a weather junkie since I was around 12 …any snows we get this early in the season are rare and should be considered a bonus..
Agree 100%
Looks like a December 22, 2004 event. Western KY gets hammered and we get a little ice after an all day 33-degree rain in the Lexington metro. Yeah!
This storm is looking like that one at the moment, hopefully it scoots east and south a bit??
I remember the ’04 thing…we here in Nelson Co. expected snow, got about 2″ of ice…my Ex & I had to take my mom to her workplace in Fairdale to pick up her check on the 23rd. (because her dumb boss was too cheap/lazy/ready for his Caribbean cruise)to mail them out…we slid all the way into Bullitt Co. (about 12 miles), then hit the “snow” part..once in Fairdale, @ her work, we had to DIG through about 11″ of snow to get the plant gate open….then had to trek back to the car for de-icer to get the door to the plant open-lock frozen…it amazed me how we got ice and just to the very N/NW got all the snow?? (As well as to the west/east.south…??!)
I’ve said it once….I’ll say it again….dont bye I to the hype…
Well at least Rolo is only doing the “sorry folks nothing but rain” shtick instead of the usual flip flop job. 🙂
It is early though! If it were not for Rolo posts, it would be unfun weather events. Well, they are already unfun as far as winter here, but would be even more unfun.
I wonder if the models can predict an all-rain event in January and be miserably wrong in reverse…..
Weather Prediction Center is starting to put out discouraging outlooks for freezing rain.
Areas from near Memphis TN to Paducah KY could be especially hard hit by an ice storm during the Dec 6/7 time frame. It’s of course early so there likely will be modifications with newer model runs. But this is one time we don’t want to see early model agreements between the Euro, GFS, Canadian, etc, 🙁 .
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Yep. Snow accuracy = 10% and Ice = 90%
Oh, the WPC use to be called the……the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center…..dang, that’s a mouthful 😉 .
The WPC/former HPC is based adjacent to the University of Maryland. Somewhat of a counterpart to the Storm Prediction Center but WPC focuses more on winter and excess rainfall events.
Will be just rain folks. Sorry to inform you.
if the storm comes down upon us in ice pellets that will not be bad. I just want more snow than the typical ankles height.
The fence will be the Ohio river until all precip. Is out of KY. Then the frigid cold will fill in freezing all the puddles. Sunday will be the opposite start cold with freezing rain only to warm enough to turn all to rain. Will be the typical winter event for most of all of KY. Little snow little ice….lots of cold rain. Trends win in most all cases.
Now on a positive note…..hopefully the cold air is stronger and pushes further south earlier. Going to be interesting still three days out.
I’ve got an oak tree in the backyard that goes up to about 50 feet. It can’t take another ice storm. I still has broken limbs for the ice storm in early 2001 or whenever that happened. I would still rather deal with an 8 to 10 inch snow. I work in Richmond and if it is snow, at least I have some traction. When it’s ice I see to many idiots with four wheel drive that think that works on ice only to cause a wreck somewhere down I-75.