Good Tuesday, everyone. We continue to watch a high impact weather event heading our way for the end of the week into the coming weekend. Snow, Ice and flooding rains will all be possible as a series of systems roll across the region.
This whole mess gets started with an arctic front that slowly crosses the state on Thursday. This will set up a mega temperature gradient until the front clears the state early Friday. That boundary will then become stationary just to our south and east. Waves of low pressure will develop along this front and each will throw abundant moisture back into the state.
We have a triple threat of weather coming our way… heavy rain, ice and snow. Who gets what and when is yet to be determined, but this is going to have a big impact on where you live in some form of fashion. Let me start with the one I am most confident with… the heavy rain and flood potential. Many models continue to spit out more than 5″ of rain across southern and eastern Kentucky…
Numbers like that could easily cause high water issues… especially along area rivers. Here’s the area I’m most concerned with…
The snow and Ice risk is increasing, but the location and timing are the factors I will have to tackle over the next few days. The models will come into much better agreement over the next 24 hours as all the players are on the field.
The GFS goes back and forth on the placement of the heaviest snow and ice. That has to do with a temperature profile that is razor thin in determining rain, snow, freezing rain and sleet. The European Model continues to be the most aggressive with the cold air. This models has a higher resolution than the GFS and other models, so it SHOULD be able to see the arctic cold better.
Check out the surface temps from the European Model during this event. The white line shows the 32 degree mark…
As you can clearly see… that’s some serious cold air working in here Friday into the weekend. The model shows single digits in western and northern parts of the state Saturday morning. IF the European Model is correct in the temperature depiction… a lot of snow and ice will fall across much of the state.
I will try to get more specific with another update around noon today. But, I want to stress, this will be a SIGNIFICANT weather maker for the entire state.
Take care.
SIGNIFICANT but no Alert Mode yet?
This is just his thoughts based on the model trends. No mets are forecasting a major event right now, but some mentioning potential- somewhere in Kentucky. To volatile to peg it down.
Once again though, the fence is setting up over Kentucky- somewhere.
Aaahhh the fence in KY????? No way that can be. LOL. So many times over the past 20 years has systems rolled through here starting as snow and changing to cold rain. Go 50 miles jump the fence and it is snowing again. I do like our chances here in louisville as of now, but not holding my breath. Where is rolo?
Getting the boat ready
Wiser purchase than a snow shovel around here 😉
Boy, looks great for my son’s soccer tournament here in Lex Friday evening, Saturday and Sunday! : (
Eager to see further updates this week.
I love the way the European model looks in my neighborhood, BUT the one thing I’ve learned watching winter weather is to bet on the warm air winning out most of the time. Regardless, will be fun to watch.
Joey I agree, but this is fall weather and we are not used to it like this around here.
I like the trends so far here in Louisville, I cannot wait to see the 0z models like tonight.
This blog needs an IBIWISI alert.
The models must have turned warmer overnite, mostly a rain event with backend light Mix is all I’m hearing now, this is KY so we know the models don’t have a clue with this!
This will be another NOWCASTING Storm!
From who???
Your own wkyt website, it says rain Thursday , mix with high 37 Friday, sat night rain, sunday mix high 35, then Monday high 35 snow(30%)
mix with 30’s shouldn’t mean that bad of weather?
I think it was also said that high confidence in HEAVY RAIN and Flooding for southern and eastern ky….I think that will be majority of KY, how far north is south..I believe it will rain all the way up to Dry Ridge…Pretty much like this last system NOT COLD ENOUGH! Until last 1/2 inch!
Would someone please provide the link to the various snowfall forecast maps? Thanks! 🙂